Offer evaluation

I'm a Data Scientist and my current ctc is 31.2 Ipa (7.5 yoe) - all fixed.

I have an offer from Citi (45.5 LPA including around 5% variable) & I have HR round coming up for SAP labs. But SAP said their budget is just 38.5 Ipa (including 10% variable), but they can try to get approval for more after HR round.

I really want to join SAP and told the recruiter that I can join even if their offer is slightly lower than Citi, but don't want to be lowballed too much.

Do you think they'll reject me if I push them to match my current offer? How much should I ask in the HR round?