My view on the Stock market in 2024 :-
Market will rise till March - April 2024 Nifty 23-24k, then will fall, the fall depends on election results If BJP wins which market is expecting then still the market will fall by 10-15% (Nifty 20-21000) because of buy on rumor and sell on news behavior. If congress wins then the market may fall by 20-25%(Nifty 18-19000) because of the discontinuity of the current government. Then the market will start recovery by September.
What do you guys think ?
Technically, nifty has a strong resistance at 22k and needs a trigger to go beyond that. BJPs majority can provide that trigger.
On the lower side, 20k should be the ultimate support. Breaking 20k again needs a trigger like BJP loosing, no change in interest rates, inflation due to issues in Red Sea causing supply chain to suffer, etc.
Without any big triggers, markets should remain range bound with slight positivity due to high SIP inflows.
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I think BJP win is certain and market participants know it already so it is priced in. Other than a 500-1000 point increase in Sensex nothing much would happen. If I.N.D.I.A wins the market will fall for sure as no one knows how stable the govt would be. I can't guess the % fall but there would be a knee jerk reaction. I think BJP is going to win.
Overall, Jan and Feb are usually bearish. New budget in Feb, and due to election season the FM will announce populist budget as per me. The mini bull run will continue in 2024 according to me.
Historically, markets have fallen in Jan, Feb more than they've soared. I feel like the election is already factored in since people believe that BJP will win. This year's budget will not affect the market either since it's the election year's budget.
Will fall by 50% if BJP loses, since a BJP win is already factored in by investors after the state wins. Best to stay away from the volatility after budgets in Feb.
Hi All,
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Man, not one month of 2024 has completed, and hoping for a good 2025. Tough times!
