Consumer spending data in USA. Winter is coming!

Both indexes began diverging sometime close to when Fed started to aggressively hike rates. It appears that the post-COVID rally was more favourable to the S&P but NIFTY is currently outperforming on absolute returns. My idea is fundamentally simple. Financial prudence during the raging recovery paid off for us, the economy appears resilient and poised to do well in the near to mid-term. It also reflects that markets are pricing recessionary risk very differently to both markets. Any ideas by others?

Liabilities and high interest loans rising, household savings falling. It's a very worrying statistic if people are borrowing money just to stay afloat.

- Russia's consumer spending has surged despite initial fears of economic collapse following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, driven by rising wages in the defense industry and state spending. - Real wages have increased by almost 14%, with consumption of goods and services up by around 25%, transforming the lives of blue-collar workers and boosting the luxury sector. - The central bank's efforts to control inflation with high interest rates have been overshadowed by state spending, leading to concerns about long-term economic stability. - The booming real estate market, fueled by subsidized mortgages, and increased domestic tourism highlight the shift in consumer behavior due to sanctions and travel restrictions. - Labor shortages, particularly in the defense sector, and the potential for an economic slowdown raise questions about the sustainability of this consumer boom. Source: FT

Do you feel 2021 level of Job Market is back?

- Uber has not seen a significant impact on consumer spending despite a weakening US economy, with food delivery demand remaining healthy. - The company reported a record high in the average number of trips booked by its 156 million monthly active users in Q2, with revenue growing 16% year-on-year to $10.7 billion. - Net income for the quarter was $1 billion, significantly surpassing market expectations, driven by a $333 million revaluation of Uber's stakes in other companies. - Uber's delivery segment showed healthy order growth, and the company expects its adjusted earnings to be between $1.58 billion and $1.68 billion in the current period. - The company is focusing on growth through potential acquisitions and making delivery offerings more affordable, with a growing ads business contributing to profitability. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/22b1b73e-c9df-4318-8cf8-cac92c85f4f5

Hello everyone, this is Blue Panda. I recently joined Grapevine see lot of folks disappointed with current economic condition and also see lot of folks saying it will stay like this. Good news - I already have started seeing winter fading and we should be back to good times sooner. Lets spread some positive energies around us. I see startups fixing their issues, VCs being more sane while deploying capital. India macro story already playing out. Govt doing better policy making etc. This has already starting to show in business returns when i analyse companies across listed corporates, SMEs and startups Though what will not change in the next bull run as well is the capitalist nature of our world wherein maximising equity return is the key goal of most leaders. I get a chance to spend time with folks who have accumulated massive wealth and none of them have done it through their regular pay cheques but equity. If you are ambitious want to create wealth make sure you get sweat equity commensurate to efforts you putting in. Thats the best way to grow! Few options below - Join a startup negotiate a good ESOP deal - Startup yourself and be the founder - Start a side hustle. Equity trading, Insurance distribution, blog subscription/influencer, goods trading, educational content etc depending upon your past strength - Upskill yourself earn more salary and start taking more equity position in small cap companies (consult an expert and dont do it randomly) You can follow me for regular dose of positivity. Thanks :)

- Central Banks have almost achieved their objective of controlling inflation through tightened monetary policy. Though the CPI is inching lower, asset inflation is resurfacing through stock prices and real estate. - Many listed companies that came out with the quarterly numbers are nothing good to talk about. Growth and profits are subdued and for small and mid caps the numbers are decimated but the stocks are still trading at a historical premium. - Analysts will once again start downgrading the earnings forecast and that will start the downward momentum. Once again people will undergo the "Flight to Quality" effect. - No of Bankruptcies is steadily increasing - No of Job openings are trending lower - Most of the US listed firms that have borrowed at a lower interest rate in 2021 are coming up for renewals this year. By the time they refinance, they will be doing it at a higher interest rate which will impact their PAT as a result their EPS estimates will take a biting. - Gold looks attractive from a market cycle standpoint. My Recommendation: - Have an emergency fund for at least 6 to 9 months to cover your expenses. - Exit overvalued small and microcaps stocks. Move to a reasonably valued large cap. - Have health insurance for you and your dependents. - Move out of small cap mutual funds and have some allocation to debt funds. Let me know your thoughts. I hope 2025 turns out better.

Had a chat with a legendary soonicorn founder yesterday evening and his take was that we are definitely not getting another bull run this decade. I obviously think more optimistically and hopefully things will look up soon. What do you all think about this tho?