Hey viners, Does anyone have the closest winning probability number when it comes to cashback and win rate within apps like cred etc., which advertise things like " upto 200 cashback" or win an iPh...

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Hey viners,
Does anyone have the closest winning probability number when it comes to cashback and win rate within apps like cred etc., which advertise things like " upto 200 cashback" or win an iPhone etc.? 
Like 1 in 10lacs? Or less?

Gamification in apps