Let's hope it continues its upward trend.

I think we are heading up. I can't see any sector that can pull the market down. We are in an uptrend and unless 21200 breaks on Nifty, we will remain in uptrend. Global cues are fine as well. The US market is undergoing a pullback and it should be contained around 4-6%. Coming back to our indices. Oil, Energy , PSU remains the strongest. Metals, IT are in good structure. Realty, Infra are also doing the right thing. Auto remains the consistent outperformer First Maruti and yesterday M&M broke out. The problem area was Nifty Bank and it has started to do the right thing. SBI cannot lead NB higher HDFC, Kotak needs to chip in now. NB is a Beast. If it starts finding its feet, a much higher level will come for Nifty. I have been booking profit for the last 2,3 weeks and have raised 40% cash. Now i have started deploying it. I have picked up 5 names from this list. https://share.gvine.app/Hn9vxKmr86PkqJmx5 I have a few other stocks on my radar. I want to build new positions for eg.in M&M. But i will wait it out. I am not going to chase any kind of breakout. I want a pullback that will shake a lot of people and then I will get in. If stocks want to just fly, I'll let it fly, I won't chase anything. I want odds on my money at this stage. I also picked up Nifty Futures yesterday, a lot of people will find it difficult to build newer positions atm as the market is stretched and rightly so, it is stretched. But the best of the rally happens in the stretched Market. I don't mind if i am wrong. I have my stop losses and risk management rules to protect me. I follow a certain process and i will keep following it. Lets go to the moooon 🚀🚀

Just wanted to do a quick dip-stick from the people in this good community. In my network of friends' (companies), I'm starting to sense renewed optimism around business growth, funding environment and therefore jobs. I also feel there is more pessimism in larger companies versus smaller upstarts Are you guys seeing/ sensing the same as well?

This is a piece from Business Standard. Growth in Profit this quarter is the slowest in the last 3 Years for Early bird 200+ companies. This either can be an anomaly or we need to show good numbers in subsequent quarters. PE Expansion has happened, Price has run up a lot Now Earnings has to catch up. This has got nothing to do with the short term. But this surely can determine what can happen in the next 12-18 months. If growth remains declining, stock prices will start appearing expensive which will lead to lower demand in the market. Very important 2,3 quarters ahead.

Hopefully it will bounce back starting today

- Central Banks have almost achieved their objective of controlling inflation through tightened monetary policy. Though the CPI is inching lower, asset inflation is resurfacing through stock prices and real estate. - Many listed companies that came out with the quarterly numbers are nothing good to talk about. Growth and profits are subdued and for small and mid caps the numbers are decimated but the stocks are still trading at a historical premium. - Analysts will once again start downgrading the earnings forecast and that will start the downward momentum. Once again people will undergo the "Flight to Quality" effect. - No of Bankruptcies is steadily increasing - No of Job openings are trending lower - Most of the US listed firms that have borrowed at a lower interest rate in 2021 are coming up for renewals this year. By the time they refinance, they will be doing it at a higher interest rate which will impact their PAT as a result their EPS estimates will take a biting. - Gold looks attractive from a market cycle standpoint. My Recommendation: - Have an emergency fund for at least 6 to 9 months to cover your expenses. - Exit overvalued small and microcaps stocks. Move to a reasonably valued large cap. - Have health insurance for you and your dependents. - Move out of small cap mutual funds and have some allocation to debt funds. Let me know your thoughts. I hope 2025 turns out better.

Talked to the son of my Dad's friend recently. Brilliant kid has a good GPA from IIIT-H + 2 research internships and 1 summer internship at good companies. He still can't find a "good" company to get into. (Side Note: "good" implies a high paying job relative to last couple of years) Apparently, most of his friends in other colleges are in the same boat. Massive pay correction has happened. The undergoing rationale is that companies hired Class of 2022 with no restraint because the demand was really strong during their placement season in 2021. This appears to be directly correlated with quantitative easing in the US and a low interest rate environment that was conducive to fundraising for several Series A+ startups. By the time Class of 2022 entered the market, everything changed and they felt some short term change. However, Class of 2023 is having a much tougher time. They are shoved into the job market in a time where demand is low and they are competing with kids who graduated last year. Ongoing consensus appears to be that a huge chunk of their batchmates are going to get their Masters abroad. Their hope is that by the time they graduate out of grad school, the economy will pick up and demand will be strong while they're poised to take advantage of that with bump up credentials. Unfortunately, this also implies that many of them will end up in the CPT-OPT-H1B-Green Card hell. This is really a tough spot to be in.

VC here. Doing this for fun. Don't take all views seriously.

Given the election season is about to come, any surprises will factor in very hard especially at current levels. Can consider hedging soon. If the incumbent government gets a stronger majority then we will definitely witness an unparalleled rally.