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I keep seeing people worried about nifty at ATH and not making moves in market. My honest take is  not to be too worried and handle volatility with patience. Now the question comes how much volatil...

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I keep seeing people worried about nifty at ATH and not making moves in market. My honest take is - not to be too worried and handle volatility with patience. Now the question comes how much volatility we can expect, here’s some data published by ET. This will prepare you for the worst! 

Bottom line - waiting/worrying too much might not help a lot in longer term.

Nifty50 max drawdowns data

Nifty50 max drawdowns data- Grapevine

Are we buying more or getting out before it goes bust?

[NIFTY50] Is this the end?

Stop following nifty
Markets are shifty
Grab a whiskey
Avoid the risky

I think we are heading up. I can't see any sector that can pull the market down. We are in an uptrend and unless 21200 breaks on Nifty, we will remain in uptrend. Global cues are fine as well. The US market is undergoing a pullback and it should be contained around 4-6%.

Coming back to our indices. 
Oil, Energy , PSU remains the strongest.
Metals, IT are in good structure.
Realty, Infra are also doing the right thing.
Auto remains the consistent outperformer First Maruti and yesterday M&M broke out.

The problem area was Nifty Bank and it has started to do the right thing. SBI cannot lead NB higher HDFC, Kotak needs to chip in now. NB is a Beast. If it starts finding its feet, a much higher level will come for Nifty.

I have been booking profit for the last 2,3 weeks and have raised 40% cash. Now i have started deploying it. I have picked up 5 names from this list.
 https://share.gvine.app/Hn9vxKmr86PkqJmx5

I have a few other stocks on my radar. I want to build new positions for eg.in M&M. But i will wait it out. I am not going to chase any kind of breakout. I want a pullback that will shake a lot of people and then I will get in. If stocks want to just fly, I'll let it fly, I won't chase anything. I want odds on my money at this stage.

I also picked up Nifty Futures yesterday, a lot of people will find it difficult to build newer positions atm as the market is stretched and rightly so, it is stretched. But the best of the rally happens in the stretched Market. 

I don't mind if i am wrong. I have my stop losses and risk management rules to protect me. I follow a certain process and i will keep following it.

Lets go to the moooon 🚀🚀

NIFTY IS HEADING UP !! 🚀🚀

Machine Learning Engineer

SBI has moved around 20% for me. I'll explain how I plan to manage this trade ahead.

You can read how and why I picked SBI here - 

https://share.gvine.app/yYujDrw15CLsLxC59

I have created my Substack, & I will begin posting there next week. I will drop the link here, so subscribe if you're interested :) I will also show who is interested, how to build a trading portfolio and enter the market at the right time in the next cycle after the correction. How one can outperform the market.
                      -------------------------
The stocks that are on my radar are- 
ICICI B , JSW, Wipro, M&M. M&M has already given the entry but will wait for the pullback to get in. 

I picked up Wipro around 460. I selected Wipro before I started posting here, but will explain in another post how I chose it, just to give an idea of how to catch such moves.

JSW Steel and ICICI Bank are getting ready, and I will initiate a trade when I get confirmation.  I have entered with a probe quantity just to track it on a daily basis. They are doing the right thing for now. Again, I will only initiate if I get confirmation. I won't preempt.

Why am I going behind JSW, SBI, ICICI Bank, and Wipro? Why behind Bank Nifty, Metal index,Nifty IT when PSU, Infra, Realty, Oil, and Energy are going crazy?

Look at the index of Auto, Realty, Infra, PSU, Oil, and Gas, Energy. They have been consistently outperforming. Now if Nifty has to move up from here, which I think it will in weeks to come, I want to be in sectors and stocks that can offer a better good Risk:Reward. You always have to think about what can move next in the market.

SBI, JSW, ICICI Bank, etc., are undervalued and underperforming. The sectors I mentioned above are outperforming but overvalued at this stage.

Look at SBI and Wipro both have gone up 20% in the last 1 month without making any noise. I like it when the stock I hold keeps moving up without making noise on social media and news channels.

CHECK COMMENT SECTION FOR SBI.

[TRADING] SBI HAS MOVED 20%. NOW WHAT TO DO NEXT ? ALSO, SOME OTHER BIG OPPORTUNITIES ?

I am a 23 grad who has managed to save close to 7 L all cash till now. Plan was to enjoy the first 6 months of job and then start with the financial hustle. Seems, I am ready. Need suggestions to allocate ~5L across equity, gold, FDs and other investment instruments.

I have an education loan, so tips on that will also be highly appreciated.

Targeting 25 L net-worth (excluding the loan) by the end of ‘24

Thanks!

Reached 7L networth (all cash, need suggestions)

The broad trajectory of the market is going to be up with volatility. Some adjustments need to be made to the trading style.

https://share.gvine.app/yXc9GETSiWn8c2Uz8

In this post i had stated that ICICI is setting up for the move. I entered 50% last week, and i have fully scaled-in this week.

There are 2 themes in the market right now. The one that has momentum for eg, Nifty Oil and Gas, Energy , PSU, AUTO. These sectors have underlying momentum but risk reward is not great, these can exhibit crazy movements but volatility can kill your trade.


Other themes are Bank Nifty, FMCG, CONSUMPTION , METAL.Risk reward exits here. These sectors are under performing and undervalued in the current market context. From here on i am only going to build new positions  in these sectors. For eg in Bank i have built positions in SBI, ICICI, now Axis if it sets up.


SBI is taking its sweet time, consolidation is healthy. I want to build another 200 quantities so i am buying 20 25 stocks daily to take advantage of the volatility. It will set up again and move up.

Let's see how things progress.

WHAT CAN TAKE NIFTY HIGHER FROM HERE WITH RISK REWARD?

This was my last post where i mentioned that Nifty 100 is the way to go ahead if one wants to build newer positions.

https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5

Stocks like ABB, SIEMENS, PIDILITE , COLPAL, MARUTI, LT, JINDAL S, TATA M , SUNPHARMA  are few names that have offered Entry opportunities.

When i am getting a good Risk : Reward, i buy whatever i wanna buy in 1 time scale in.

Out of the above list SIEMENS, ABB, MARUTI, COLPAL started moving before the indices. Generally these stocks are the leaders of the next upleg . Such stocks need to be tracked closely, they will offer plenty of opportunity to those who missed it. More often than not they will outperform the market. 

Don't chase any stock that is flying eg. Maruti, ABB wait for Risk : Reward to come in your favour. If it gives a mini pullback, get in, if not then let it fly. Look for another opportunity.


I have also built positions in Nifty Future at 22,220 today. In my last post i updated about entering Nifty Bank, that trade is still on and i have captured 700 odd points, Let's see what happens in days to come.

Pullback got confirmed today in Nifty. It broke out of the high volume node range, valid pullback ended , it kept bouncing above multiple AWAP levels (forgot to add that in the photo). This was a confluence of data points for me.

Getting in the market at the right time is very crucial. If one gets it right, the journey ahead for the next upleg is relatively easy. The market will shakeout late participants, if you get it right, you get a lot of cushion to work with and you wont be shaken out of the market that easily.

We are moving up in the medium term. If i see anything changing or i cut my positions, i will update here. Bank nifty and nifty is a deadly combo, i hope Bank Nifty keeps chipping in on regular intervals.


Happy Trading :)

IS THIS UPMOVE IN THE MARKET SUSTAINABLE ?  SOME UPDATE ON THE STOCKS.

This was my last market update. I built a portfolio in real-time, explaining what I'm doing and why I'm doing it.

https://share.gvine.app/VaSwtbqJVzF384YRA

I have given a list stocks in the comment section where i want to build newer positions. I have given some psychology related tips as well. Check them out.


Out of the list Jindal, ABB, Siemens, Colpal, ICICI B, TATA S I did cut down on ICICI Bank and Colpal last week as they were around 2-3% gain. I found another opportunity in Havells as well. Although I didn't make a post about it or update it here, I did discuss it with    @TheOatmeal in the DMs when i got in. 
My avg Buy price is 1575.

I have certainly been very lucky in this cycle. Well it's not just pure luck i did identify leaders of the current run and have been doing this for quite some time now. But the moves in my portfolio have been amazing and pretty smooth during recent fall as well. My top 3 winners are -

Jindal - +23.14%
ABB - +39% 
SIEMENS - +44.32%
These 3 stocks have given me a lot of cushion to operate further. 
None of the above 3 stocks violated their trending pivot during the market fall.

I made a few posts about SBI and that trade is still on. Check it here.
https://share.gvine.app/yXc9GETSiWn8c2Uz8

 https://share.gvine.app/yYujDrw15CLsLxC59


Today's session was excellent. The Nifty moved around 300 points in just 20 to 25 minutes, potentially wiping out months of gains for option writers and cleared up all the short term bearish players out of the system.Such moves in a single day can decimate months and months of hardwork. Just stay away from options if you can.

VIX often rises during election years, as seen in 2014 and 2019. I will only be concerned if it crosses 30 and stays there. Otherwise, it's not worth overanalyzing.People link rise in VIX with Possibility of government changes but if the market senses a shift, 8-12% would just go in a few sessions. The market will not give us a lot of time to manage our positions.

[TRADING] OPPORTUNITY TO BUY OR OPPORTUNITY TO SELL ?

- Central Banks have almost achieved their objective of controlling inflation through tightened monetary policy. Though the CPI is inching lower,  asset inflation is resurfacing through stock prices and real estate. 
- Many listed companies that came out with the quarterly numbers are nothing good to talk about. Growth and profits are subdued and for small and mid caps the numbers are decimated but the stocks are still trading at a historical premium. 
- Analysts will once again start downgrading the earnings forecast and that will start the downward momentum. Once again people will undergo the "Flight to Quality" effect. 
- No of Bankruptcies is steadily increasing 
- No of Job openings are trending lower
- Most of the US listed firms that have borrowed at a lower interest rate in 2021 are coming up for renewals this year. By the time they refinance, they will be doing it at a higher interest rate which will impact their PAT as a result their EPS estimates will take a biting. 
- Gold looks attractive from a market cycle standpoint. 

My Recommendation: 
- Have an emergency fund for at least 6 to 9 months to cover your expenses. 
- Exit overvalued small and microcaps stocks. Move to a reasonably valued large cap.
- Have health insurance for you and your dependents. 
- Move out of small cap mutual funds and have some allocation to debt funds. 

Let me know your thoughts. 

I hope 2025 turns out better.

[Must Read] Markets will Correct 📉

Man, not one month of 2024 has completed, and hoping for a good 2025. Tough times!

Consultant

Nifty again at ATH, 5% up since I last posted the update. 1000 point move in 11 days, already. How high will it go?

NIFTY50 at All Time High again! How's your portfolio looking?

Welcome to News Discussion's Private Community

No one has expected to see such graphs in these two days.

I want to understand what's out there for us?
And what are your thoughts on the Indian Stock market.??

Nifty50 max drawdowns data

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