Not long before India and China dominates tech and manufacturing!

..unless either of the two mess up insanely bad We'll probably get to the #3 spot if things go well. But it seems impossible that we'll ever go beyond that. Internal reasons that are very hard to fix:- (1) Our population TFR fell below standard replacement rate in 2023. This means we will not be able to follow the same economic growth trajectory required to reach developed status before population stagnation or declination. This is not a death knell but definitely very VERY bad news. (2) Our blue-collar workforce skill levels are not only subpar but are slowly falling behind the world standards every year. Much of our youth aim to join government orgs like the Army or the Railways which train for the job later, not before. Despite a national shortage of skilled plumbers, electricians etc, our vocational training orgs have been unsuccessful in attracting people towards these careers as well as churning out skilled workers. (3) Our bureaucratic environment is extremely slow with pathetic turnaround times on initiatives. This is not government specific and has always been the case so it seems like this will always be. This is not even a problem unique to India as many other countries have been facing this too but it is still a factor that negatively impacts our growth massively. I wish it was just internal reasons but a large part of it also comes down to both China and US being aggressively great at ensuring their successes:- (1) Chinese manufacturing seems nearly impossible to overcome - not just for India but also for the US. Yes, we might win over some industries and companies like the US, Vietnam, Thailand etc. have been doing but the amount of autocratic control in China allows them to crush competition easily. Case in point - the recent tussle between India and China on solar manufacturing which China won by autocratically lowering their prices. (2) If de-dollarisation succeeds, it will benefit China the most because (contd. in comments)

Do write a sentence about why & what's the unique insight.

These days, I can't help but keep on thinking about post white collar labour economy and it's implication on our day to day life.... We can keep on dwelling in our wishful cocoon but fact remains that world is going to be vastly different in 4-5 years vis a viz today... In that scenario, let's us discuss some scenario : 1. What will be impact on rental yields of tier 1 cities and consequently what will be overall impact on Indian real estate 2. What would be impact on banking interest rates 3. Where will you park your money in that scenario : Gold, Indian Equity , Big Tech Equity , FD, Real estate or Cash.. My opinion : 1. As high paying jobs for majority of people diminishes, Rental yields of tier 1 cities will come down thereby directly impacting real estate. This will result in huge NPA by those people who have taken loans for 20-30 years period. This will eventually bankrupt real estate developers thereby making real estate deflationary. 2. We will begin to witness overall a deflationary society where cost of services like Education, software, finance etc will drastically reduce. Moreover due to high NPAs, banking interest rate will reduce. Home loans for tenure of 20-30 years will drastically reduce due to increased uncertainty. 3. Gold has historically been inflation proof asset. However will it still be a good asset to invest into in a deflationary society? What are things that will still hold value then? Don't you think current big techs will become East India Company of future indirectly controlling world's economy? I would love to know what do grapevine folks think about the same !

https://inc42.com/buzz/apple-to-employ-5-lakh-people-in-3-years-in-india/

VC funding based on revenue multiples and profit (😂😂😂) multiples is soon going to be obsolete. Common sense says company's valuation should be summation of yearly profits it can generate till the company exists... So if reliance has profit of 8 billion $ , market estimates that it's valuation should be around 25x multiple of its profit that is to say that if reliance keeps on generating same amount of profit for year on year, it will not exist after 25 years. Now tell me, what shelf live does these VC funded startup have? I honestly don't see all these tom dick and Harry mobile based and web based startups existing by end of this decade thanks to AI revolution. People are still oblivion to what AI will do to white collar jobs Just out of curiosity, is there any single VC funded Indian startup in last 10-15 years which is immensely profitable ? Or for that matter any global giants like Amazon, Uber, Airbnb etc. which has turned profitable in Indian territory?

- India is rapidly catching up to China in the MSCI emerging markets index, raising questions for global investors about where to allocate their capital. - Indian stocks have surged, now making up nearly 20% of the index, while China's share has dropped significantly since 2020. - An upcoming MSCI review could see India's weighting surpass 20%, putting it just behind China and ahead of Taiwan. - Investors face a dilemma: invest in India's expensive but high-performing market or China's cheaper stocks amid an economic slowdown. - Domestic investment in Indian equities has been strong, countering foreign outflows and driving up valuations, despite concerns about sustainability. Source: FT

https://youtu.be/lUp5xKvGzDw?si=GVh3pdYnu2uwpVDS Not sure of the authencity of the video. But look at the scale of use of tech.