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Tag that guy here! πŸ˜‚

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imBatMan

Stealth

a month ago

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MichaelScott

M2P Fintech

a month ago

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Indian Startups on

by steppenwolf

Stealth

Silver Moving , Buying frenzy in the market, Locking profits, Next opportunities..

Check comment for update on silver & next sectors. A lot of things have happened since my last update. I was caught in election volatility & booked out 50% of my positions. I was hoping for further slippages in the market, but prices started recovering the next day & eventually, I built everything back in the next 2 days. Currently from last week i have started booking out profits from my positional trades. 1 day before the election my portfolio for this FY was up around 26% & due to election volatility it came down to about 9 %. It is back again to the previous levels, a bit above. I wont sell my top 2 stocks but i am booking out the rest gradually. Now the rationale behind locking profit is that, in the last month, the portfolio fluctuated from 26 - 9 - 29. If markets go into trouble, I don't want to give back 20% twice to the market in 1 month. If I have 100 shares, I book out 5-10 every day, so that I can get a good average if the price keeps moving up. I have already booked 50% of my total positions. This process is called BOOKING OUT ON STRENGTH. I am taking advantage of the parabolic move. Us markets are currently thinning out & a handful of stocks are taking it higher, soon our market will experience the same. As of now there are no triggers in our market. But it just takes 1 session for the sentiment to change. Now, I cannot let my money sit idle in my account, that would be foolish for a trader. What I am doing is getting into sector ETFs of Banks, It , Auto. ETFs are less volatile, if the market is going to move 5-7% more from here until Budget, my returns will be in tune with the market. I am fine if I don't outperform the market for the next 5-7%. After budget i will reasses the situation and will get back again into equities. It is also a good feeling to book out & bring that money home. Whenever opportunities arise in subsequent quarters I can hit it hard & go full throttle since I have a good cushion.

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Software Engineers on

by salt

Gojek

Daily Series #2: Geeking out β†’ Monte Carlo Simulations

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content. Imagine you have a very complex situation with varying degrees of randomness. How do you evaluate the probability of certain outcomes? One way is a deterministic way which is to sit down and try to compute probabilities of events. Another way is to simulate these interactions with various seed values and see how these outcomes vary. This is called a Monte Carlo simulation, where we use random sampling to model and analyze complex systems that involve uncertainty. Let's set up a game and apply a Monte Carlo simulation to it. You(Hero) and Me(Villain) engage in a strategic coin flipping competition over a series of rounds. Before each round, both of us independently decide whether to flip a coin or pass the turn to the opponent. The outcomes are as follows: 1. If both players decide to flip, a fair coin is tossed, and the player who called it correctly gains a point. 2. If one player decides to flip and the other passes, the flipping player gains a point without the need for a coin toss. 3. If both players pass, no points are gained or lost. We can simulate it by making each decision random: 1. Hero and Villain both independently choose between 0 and 1 for deciding whether to toss or pass. We use 0 as Pass and 1 as Toss. 2. If both pass then we let the scores as is. 3. If one passes and not the other, then we add +1 to whoever decided to toss. 4. If both decide to toss then, we do a random coin flip where 0 = Heads and 1 = Tails. Hero can randomly choose between Heads or Tails. The Villain takes the opposite position. First is the Monte Carlo Simulation and the difference between potential outcomes for 1000 rounds and 20 simulations, which is the graph shared.

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Data Scientists on

by salt

Gojek

Daily Series #1: Geeking out β†’ Poker Math

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content. I assume you guys know some basics of Texas Hold'em Poker. Flop refers to "the dealing of the first three face-up cards to the board" Now, let's look at the table and their positions: 1. Blinds: First to act every street after pre-flop. 2. Early positions: Under the Gun(UTG) 3. Middle positions 4. Late positions: Button and Cut Off The order for a 10 person game would be: Small Blind(SB) β†’ Big Blind(BB) β†’ Under the Gun(UTG) β†’ UTG+1 β†’ UTG+2 β†’ MP1 β†’ MP2 β†’ MP3 β†’ Cutting off the Button (CO) β†’ Button (BTN) and then order repeats ... Some insights: 1. Blinds see the flop at a discount because they are compelled to play but are at a disadvantage because they are first to act. 2. This means that more money is made in late positions because they have more information to act on. 3. However in short stack situations, where effective stack size is small then early positions are better because you have the opportunity to go all in before someone else can as you can maintain Fold equity(Equity from Aggression). So, Expected Value or E(V) is how do you determine whether you should call or fold basis the size of the pot and your contribution to it basis the number of outs(potential winning hands) you have. E(V) = Win % * Win Amt - Lose % * Lose Amt For example: Villain(V) [UTG+1] = $500 Hero(H) (MP1) = $500 SB/BB + Ante = 20/40 + 10 Here, Ante is the bet everyone has to make every hand. This is to make the pot worth playing for everyone. Pre-Flop: $140 H = A 10 (suited Hearts) V = ? (Unknown) 1 Fold V raises $120 H calls $120, 5 Folds Flop: $380 The flop is 8 Heart, 3 Heart, K Club V = $370 (All In) H = ? (Do you call or fold?) Solution: A call is positive E(V) if: Win % > Call Amt/ Pot after Call You have a strong hand if you can get a flush here. which means you need one of the next two cards Heart Heart Club | Heart* | Heart* Which means: Win % = 1 - (Odds of 2 cards not being Hearts) = 1 - (40/49 * 39/48) = ~ 36% So, 370/1120 = ~33% is Call Amt/Pot after Call Since, 36% > 33% Hero should call. E(V) = 36% * (380+x) - x * 66% E(V) cut off at 0, x = $404 You stand to make $ if you decide to call that bet. You can raise any amount till $404 for a positive E(V) after which you should mathematically fold. An easier way to calculate this is to use 2% if you can only see one card after flop and 4% if you can see both cards. That way, Win % here would be = 4% * 9 = 36% 9 outs because, 9 cards that are Hearts are left in the deck.