WHAT CAN TAKE NIFTY HIGHER FROM HERE WITH RISK REWARD?

SBI has moved around 20% for me. I'll explain how I plan to manage this trade ahead. You can read how and why I picked SBI here - https://share.gvine.app/yYujDrw15CLsLxC59 I have created my Substack, & I will begin posting there next week. I will drop the link here, so subscribe if you're interested :) I will also show who is interested, how to build a trading portfolio and enter the market at the right time in the next cycle after the correction. How one can outperform the market. ------------------------- The stocks that are on my radar are- ICICI B , JSW, Wipro, M&M. M&M has already given the entry but will wait for the pullback to get in. I picked up Wipro around 460. I selected Wipro before I started posting here, but will explain in another post how I chose it, just to give an idea of how to catch such moves. JSW Steel and ICICI Bank are getting ready, and I will initiate a trade when I get confirmation. I have entered with a probe quantity just to track it on a daily basis. They are doing the right thing for now. Again, I will only initiate if I get confirmation. I won't preempt. Why am I going behind JSW, SBI, ICICI Bank, and Wipro? Why behind Bank Nifty, Metal index,Nifty IT when PSU, Infra, Realty, Oil, and Energy are going crazy? Look at the index of Auto, Realty, Infra, PSU, Oil, and Gas, Energy. They have been consistently outperforming. Now if Nifty has to move up from here, which I think it will in weeks to come, I want to be in sectors and stocks that can offer a better good Risk:Reward. You always have to think about what can move next in the market. SBI, JSW, ICICI Bank, etc., are undervalued and underperforming. The sectors I mentioned above are outperforming but overvalued at this stage. Look at SBI and Wipro both have gone up 20% in the last 1 month without making any noise. I like it when the stock I hold keeps moving up without making noise on social media and news channels. CHECK COMMENT SECTION FOR SBI.

This was my last post where i mentioned that Nifty 100 is the way to go ahead if one wants to build newer positions. https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5 Stocks like ABB, SIEMENS, PIDILITE , COLPAL, MARUTI, LT, JINDAL S, TATA M , SUNPHARMA are few names that have offered Entry opportunities. When i am getting a good Risk : Reward, i buy whatever i wanna buy in 1 time scale in. Out of the above list SIEMENS, ABB, MARUTI, COLPAL started moving before the indices. Generally these stocks are the leaders of the next upleg . Such stocks need to be tracked closely, they will offer plenty of opportunity to those who missed it. More often than not they will outperform the market. Don't chase any stock that is flying eg. Maruti, ABB wait for Risk : Reward to come in your favour. If it gives a mini pullback, get in, if not then let it fly. Look for another opportunity. I have also built positions in Nifty Future at 22,220 today. In my last post i updated about entering Nifty Bank, that trade is still on and i have captured 700 odd points, Let's see what happens in days to come. Pullback got confirmed today in Nifty. It broke out of the high volume node range, valid pullback ended , it kept bouncing above multiple AWAP levels (forgot to add that in the photo). This was a confluence of data points for me. Getting in the market at the right time is very crucial. If one gets it right, the journey ahead for the next upleg is relatively easy. The market will shakeout late participants, if you get it right, you get a lot of cushion to work with and you wont be shaken out of the market that easily. We are moving up in the medium term. If i see anything changing or i cut my positions, i will update here. Bank nifty and nifty is a deadly combo, i hope Bank Nifty keeps chipping in on regular intervals. Happy Trading :)

I had explained in the last post the sectors i am going behind from here on. These were Banks, Metals and FMCG. Banks are resisting the fall even today & are broadly up. Check it here. https://share.gvine.app/GiMiy13zbhGLgrT97 SBI,ICICI,AXIS are the top stocks in the banking sector & they are doing okay, well above buy price. From FMCG Nestle, VBL, TATA C are well above the buy price for now. From metals i have positions in Jindal & Tata S. I have cut out Jindal S today at 2% loss & i have Tata S from a much lower level so i am not worried. Apart from these i built positions in TVS Motor, Cipla, booked out a loss of around 1.5% -2% today. Cutting out stocks when things are not in your favour is also a skill and i have learned it the hard way. -2% can become -5% -10% very easily. For the last 1 month i have been writing that Risk : Reward exists in Bank, Metal and FMCG and stocks from these sectors have not fallen that much in the last week. Any chart pattern any strategy cannot be a traders edge, Risk management combining with Risk : Reward analysis & sector understanding is my biggest edge over 99% of market participants. Now, markets are getting thinner by each passing session. I will aggressively start cutting position if we breach 21850 in Nifty. I am now only managing newer positions (mentioned above). From the Large cap portfolio i built in Dec, i have a good cushion but i will start trimming if 21850 goes in Nifty. I will not touch my Top 4 holdings. I have Tata M, Tata C, LT , Can B , PNB , TATA S, Wipro from DEC. I have a different account for Small - mid cap & i have booked everything except 2 top massive winner stocks in the last 1 week. I will wait for stability to return to build newer positions. From now on whatever new position i build that is going to be from Nifty 100 index only. Per trade I risk 2% of my account size but from here on my risk will be capped at 0.5-0.75% of Account. Tip : Stay away from options for 1 Month.

Here is the link where i mentioned about the SBI trade, I am fully scaled in with avg Price of 638. https://share.gvine.app/sugCF7MjAeSSFkvh6 I have explained everything on the chart. Ideally the price should consolidate for a few more sessions, even fall some % points, before moving higher. If this is an aggressive trade SL can be around 5950 on a daily closing basis, mere violation is not enough. For Positional trade (12-18 Month) SL should be 5200. MARKET COMMENTARY :- For the last 2,3 weeks, i have been booking out profit and have raised 40% cash as the market was getting extended for my liking. But the market is not showing any signs of slowing down, Last week Nifty oil& Gas, yesterday Nifty IT, today Realty, metal. If Bank nifty starts to chip in we'll head a lot higher. Every other day 1 or another space is setting up apart from main indices. Eg. Broking/AMC companies (BSE, CDSL, Angelone, Tata investment) in the last 2,3 days. Our biases have 0 value until the chart confirms it, So i have bought Nifty FUT last week to up my exposure to 100% again. I am also inclined to take positions in stock like SBI, JSW STEEL, WIPRO, APAR IND etc Where i have RISK:REWARD in my favour. But newly built positions have to be monitored closely. I will not be scaling if things are over extended like for eg. TATA M, CANARA BANK, DLF etc. MARKET IS SUPREME. Don't miss out on the rally on basis of your biases.

Currently Market is offering an excellent Risk : Reward. I know how hard it is right now to build positions, that is why i have a focused approach(Nifty 100 only). Whenever the market is going to give you Risk : Reward things are not going to be rosy. I carry out 1 exercise on the weekend to check the market breadth when markets are falling. I couldn't post last weekend but i will try to post it this weekend. It immensely helps me in building a hypothesis. In my post i mentioned that buying Opportunity currently exists in the market but Risk : Reward wise Banks, FMCG , Metals are an excellent bet at this stage. Also stocks from Nifty 100 are exhibiting strength wrt to Broader market .ie. Nifty 500, Nifty 750. Check out here - https://share.gvine.app/df3TRVcpCV5VF81M7 I have gone behind Bank Nifty Fut today but with 50% of intended Scale in. I will scale up another 50% after some stability in Nifty. I have gone behind Bank Nifty FUT and not options. The journey is not going to be smooth on the upside, momentum is missing so dabble into options only if you understand risk. Now, I have started to build a newer position in a few counters but they are from the Nifty 100 list only. For the time being Nifty 100 is my only universe. I am tracking stocks from small cap, mid cap space as well but i wont buy anything unless those indices become stable. ABB, HAVELLS, COLPAL , ICICPRULI , JINDAL S, TATA S. Except Havells all of them have given an entry opportunity and Risk : Reward is great. TATA M, M&M, DLF are eg of stocks that will offer opportunity. In one of my posts I mentioned that i want to go behind M&M but risk : reward is skewed. Now i might get an opportunity. Out of Auto, Realty i will just go behind 1 Stock. Global and US markets are stable. Let's see what we do. I have my Stop losses in place, if things start going south, i will simply cut out.

Here is the post where i mentioned about 3 live trades. https://share.gvine.app/pUjNH4n7qnU3kYgM9 SBI - I have added more of SBI at 732 today. If i had 500 quantities, I have added 250 more. GENERAL INSURANCE - IT went up 25% and gave back all the gains. I am still holding, a good amount of shakeout has happened. APAR IND - Nice bit of shakeout here as well just around buy price lets see. Still holding. New positions i am currently building in - SBI - Added Today RELIANCE - Added Today COAL INDIA- Added Yesterday GAIL - 33% today BPCL - 33% Today HINDPETRO -33% Today J&K BANK OIL INDIA Angel one NIACL KARURVYASA B UFO MOVIES INDIA For some stock i am using 1 time scale in SBI, Reliance,Coal India. For the names which are stretched i am using a pyramiding approach .ie. 33% in 3 rounds. If the market reverses these stretched names will fall a lot so I don't want to take a lot of risk. I will keep buying until Nifty is above 50 DMA. The moment i see it slipping below it, I will stop buying. Its good sign that Nifty Bank is stabilising and trying to move up. Also the current sector leader .i.e Oil and Gas, Energy, PSU, PSE are recovering well after a fall.

Hi guys, I have around 4L cash lying around which I wanted to invest. Currently, I think I am in a position to take maximum risks, and see where things go. I also haven’t redeemed the 1.5L tax deduction on Section 80c so PPF and ELSS are open as an investment opportunity. I was worried to invest in the current equity markets. Have just put in around 6.5L into Equities in December (Split equally amongst Large, Mid, Small and Flexi Cap) Needed advice on which seems a better option: - Put 1.5L in PPF and the rest in Large Cap MFs since Large Caps haven’t peaked yet - Distribute the 4L over the next year (~33k/month) and invest it in a SIP to account for market changes - Put the entire amount into equities (1.5L ELSS, 2.5L Large Caps) Also, needed advice if it’s better to look for a Real Estate or SGBs Investment to diversify risk? (<25 yo right now so can take a property around 40-50L to test the waters) What are your views on the current market? I’m planning to continue investing a significant chunk (~50% salary) into SIPs all through. Should I reconsider?