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Software Engineer

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🫡- Grapevine

Welcome to Data Scientists's Private Community

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content.

I assume you guys know some basics of Texas Hold'em Poker. Flop refers to "the dealing of the first three face-up cards to the board"

Now, let's look at the table and their positions:
1. Blinds: First to act every street after pre-flop.
2. Early positions: Under the Gun(UTG)
3. Middle positions
4. Late positions: Button and Cut Off

The order for a 10 person game would be: Small Blind(SB) → Big Blind(BB) → Under the Gun(UTG) → UTG+1 → UTG+2 → MP1 → MP2 → MP3 → Cutting off the Button (CO) → Button (BTN) and then order repeats ...

Some insights:
1. Blinds see the flop at a discount because they are compelled to play but are at a disadvantage because they are first to act.
2. This means that more money is made in late positions because they have more information to act on.
3. However in short stack situations, where effective stack size is small then early positions are better because you have the opportunity to go all in before someone else can as you can maintain Fold equity(Equity from Aggression).

So, Expected Value or E(V) is how do you determine whether you should call or fold basis the size of the pot and your contribution to it basis the number of outs(potential winning hands) you have.

E(V) = Win % * Win Amt - Lose % * Lose Amt

For example:
Villain(V) [UTG+1] = $500
Hero(H) (MP1) = $500

SB/BB + Ante = 20/40 + 10
Here, Ante is the bet everyone has to make every hand. This is to make the pot worth playing for everyone.

Pre-Flop: $140
H = A 10 (suited Hearts)
V = ? (Unknown)

1 Fold
V raises $120
H calls $120, 5 Folds

Flop: $380
The flop is 8 Heart, 3 Heart, K Club
V = $370 (All In)
H = ? (Do you call or fold?)

Solution:
A call is positive E(V)  if:
 Win % > Call Amt/ Pot after Call 

You have a strong hand if you can get a flush here. 
which means you need one of the next two cards
Heart Heart Club | Heart* | Heart*

Which means:
Win % = 1 - (Odds of 2 cards not being Hearts)
= 1 - (40/49 * 39/48)
= ~ 36%

So,
370/1120 = ~33% is  Call Amt/Pot after Call

Since, 36% > 33% Hero should call.

E(V) = 36% * (380+x) - x * 66%
E(V) cut off at 0,

x = $404

You stand to make $ if you decide to call that bet. You can raise any amount till $404 for a positive E(V) after which you should mathematically fold.

An easier way to calculate this is to use 2% if you can only see one card after flop and 4% if you can see both cards.

That way, Win % here would be = 4% *  9 = 36%
9 outs because, 9 cards that are Hearts are left in the deck.

Daily Series #1: Geeking out → Poker Math

Product Manager

Welcome to Office Gossip's Private Community

Heard from a friend that he flew out to his office in the middle of the night from his wedding because mortgage backed securities started to crumble in NA during ’07 crisis.

Dude was bummed.

What is the worst thing your boss did to you?

Got a new phone and trying to find a new wallpaper now. Here's my old wallpaper...
Suggestions are appreciated.

Designers? Drop best phone wallpapers please.

Hi guys.. can anyone pls tell me how to change the dp (profile photo) in Grapevine app.. ?

Changing dp in grapevine

Data engineer

Life has become so dry and meaningless nowadays. Struggle connects us on some level. I’d love to hear your stories of struggle and how you overcame it.

Here’s my story.
I studied B.E for 7 years because of backlogs. Every year was a new batch, no friends. Extreme depression, humiliation everywhere. Isolated myself from an extremely judgmental society. 
Confidence had no meaning in my life. 
Somehow struggled and cleared all the backlogs. Studied programming and web design. Started working for free.
After 1 year, first salary was 2k per month.
Then 18k. Then 30k.
I always felt dumb because of the backlogs. Want to rectify it. So went to the US with the only admit I got. Studied my ass off. GPA 3.95. But I was broke again. Cried my eyes out multiple times because I had no money for food. Couldn’t tell this to parents.

Found a job later after many many applications. 
Happiest moment of achievement was when I bought my first 43 inch LED TV. With my own money.

Current pay: over 2L / mo.

Tell me your story of hard work and difficulty

Product Designer

Definitely hydrated

Bit of a rant and a solution. I have worked for close to 18 years now lived in various part of country like Noida, Pune, Hyderabad and off course Bangalore. Additionally lived in eu for 5+ years. I feel post return to India I see the population has in general become more uncivil and rowdy. With useless apps like Swiggy/zomato/ blink it there is a splurge of stupid drivers on street. Similar is situation with Uber/ola etc with them the density of village folks with no road sense have increased tremendously. They drive badly and threaten common folks at the blink of an eye even though they are probably driving on wrong side of the road. 

I feel common folks should be given gun license so we can protect ourselves as we have no other way left to save our family and kids from these animals

Arms license for common people

Engineering manager

Welcome to Software Engineers's Private Community

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content.

Imagine you have a very complex situation with varying degrees of randomness. How do you evaluate the probability of certain outcomes? 

One way is a deterministic way which is to sit down and try to compute probabilities of events.
Another way is to simulate these interactions with various seed values and see how these outcomes vary. This is called a Monte Carlo simulation, where we use random sampling to model and analyze complex systems that involve uncertainty.

Let's set up a game and apply a Monte Carlo simulation to it.

You(Hero) and Me(Villain) engage in a strategic coin flipping competition over a series of rounds. Before each round, both of us independently decide whether to flip a coin or pass the turn to the opponent. 

The outcomes are as follows:

1. If both players decide to flip, a fair coin is tossed, and the player who called it correctly gains a point.
2. If one player decides to flip and the other passes, the flipping player gains a point without the need for a coin toss.
3. If both players pass, no points are gained or lost.

We can simulate it by making each decision random:
1. Hero and Villain both independently choose between 0 and 1 for deciding whether to toss or pass. We use 0 as Pass and 1 as Toss.
2. If both pass then we let the scores as is.
3. If one passes and not the other, then we add +1 to whoever decided to toss.
4. If both decide to toss then, we do a random coin flip where 0 = Heads and 1 = Tails. Hero can randomly choose between Heads or Tails. The Villain takes the opposite position.

First is the Monte Carlo Simulation and the difference between potential outcomes for 1000 rounds and 20 simulations, which is the graph shared.

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