Difficult times ahead as in B’desh and especially for Hasina

- The night before **Sheikh Hasina** fled Bangladesh, her **army chief**, **Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman**, decided troops would not enforce a **curfew** by opening fire on civilians, according to two **serving army officers**. - **Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman** informed Hasina that the army could not implement the **lockdown**, signaling she no longer had their **support**, as confirmed by an **Indian official**. - Details of the **military's decision** and the message to Hasina have not been previously reported, shedding light on the **chaotic end** of her **15-year rule**. - The **nationwide curfew** followed **deadly clashes** that killed at least **91 people**, the **deadliest day** since **protests began in July**. - Hasina fled to **India** on Monday, with her departure facilitated by **Indian officials**, amid **escalating protests** and **loss of military support**. Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bangladesh-army-refused-suppress-protest-sealing-hasinas-fate-2024-08-07/)

- Bangladesh's garment industry, worth $55bn annually, is facing an uncertain future after weeks of protests toppled the government of Sheikh Hasina in August. - The unrest led to the deaths of hundreds, the burning of at least four factories, and a nationwide internet blackout, causing major brands like Disney and Walmart to look elsewhere for production. - Worker protests demanding better wages have forced the closure of 60 factories outside Dhaka, further disrupting the industry. - The country's economy, heavily reliant on garment exports, is struggling with issues like child labor scandals, deadly accidents, and soaring manufacturing costs. - The new government, led by interim leader Muhammad Yunus, faces the challenge of stabilizing the economy, diversifying industries, and addressing corruption and red tape. Source: [bbc](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6ye3e8x9po)

- The mobs opposed to Bangladesh’s deposed leader Sheikh Hasina are looting and rioting across the country, targeting facilities and leaders of Hasina’s Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) as well as minorities. - At least two Hindu councillors have been killed, and attacks on temples and houses of Hindu commonfolk have been reported. The violence has been fueled by the pro-Pakistan Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami. - The agitation began as a student-led protest against the quota system but escalated into a mass movement against Hasina’s 15-year rule, climaxing on Sunday with nearly 100 people killed. Hasina resigned and fled the country on Monday. - Religious centres of the Hindu movement ISKCON and temples of goddess Kali have been attacked. In Meherpur, an ISKCON center was burnt, and deities were destroyed. In Noakhali, mobs attacked Hindu houses. - Student protest leader Prapti Taposhi highlighted the ongoing violence against Hindus, criticizing the military for not protecting the minority. There are concerns that with Hasina out of the picture, the persecution of Hindus could massively increase. Source: First Post

- Security agencies in India are preparing for both short and long-term stays of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina due to ongoing violent protests in Bangladesh. - India is working on securing asylum for Hasina in a European country, but uncertainties have delayed her travel plans, making her stay in India likely for the next few days. - National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is closely monitoring the situation and updating PM Modi on Hasina's stay and possible asylum. - Hasina, who arrived at Hindon airbase on August 5, is currently in a nearby facility but will be moved to a more secure location soon. - The Indian government is extending all protocols befitting a Head of State to Hasina, with special security drills and deployments in place. Source: [India Today](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bangladesh-crisis-sheikh-hasina-in-india-london-asylum-ajit-doval-security-awami-league-2577971-2024-08-06)

- Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and is reportedly heading to Delhi, India, after violent protests in her country. - The Army Chief confirmed her resignation and announced the formation of an interim government to address the economic crisis caused by the unrest. - Hasina departed from Bangabhaban on a military helicopter with her sister, Sheikh Rehana, and is expected to land in Delhi at 5 pm. - India's Border Security Force has issued a high alert along the India-Bangladesh border, and all train services between the two countries have been canceled. - The protests, initially sparked by student groups against job quotas, escalated into a movement demanding Hasina's resignation, leading to nearly 300 casualties. Source: https://www.businesstoday.in/world/story/bangladesh-pm-sheikh-hasina-quits-from-her-post-after-armys-45-minutes-ultimatum-amid-protests-440176-2024-08-05

The recent political instability in Bangladesh has significant implications for India, given the close geographical, economic, and cultural ties between the two countries. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Economic Impact It can disrupt trade and economic relations as Bangladesh is our largest trading partner in the Indian subcontinent with trade worth of $14.2 billion with balance of trade in India's favor. Any disruption can affect businesses, supply chains, and economic stability in the region. 2. Security Concerns It may lead to the rise of radical elements and cross-border tensions. This can impact India’s border security and necessitate increased vigilance and resources to manage potential threats over 4000 km of land border. 3. Refugee Influx Political turmoil often leads to displacement of people. India may face an influx of refugees from Bangladesh, which can strain resources and create humanitarian challenges and also changes the demographic pattern of the region. 4. Geopolitical Dynamics Bangladesh’s strategic position and its ties with China add complexity to the situation. As it may add a pearl to the China's String of Peral policy. 5. Diplomatic Relations India has historically had strong ties with Sheikh Hasina’s government. The new government may have different priorities and policies, requiring India to adapt its diplomatic strategies. 6. Regional Stability Overall, the stability of Bangladesh is crucial for the broader South Asian region. Instability can have a ripple effect, impacting neighboring countries and regional cooperation initiatives. India will need to carefully monitor the situation and engage in diplomatic efforts to support stability and maintain strong bilateral relations with Bangladesh.

Everything seems to indicate that this is the beginning of an extended bullrun till the elections. What is the game plan? Personally, I am all in. First time since 2020, that I have a net zero cash position.

Market will crash by 3000+ for Nifty 50. Our foreign policy will collapse & become inefficient. FDI will decrease. Manufacturing will take a hit. Basic corruption will increase. What else you can add more?

- A letter allegedly from former Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina suggests her ouster was due to US pressure over St Martin’s Island. - The letter claims Hasina refused to cede control of the strategically important island in the Bay of Bengal to the US. - The island is significant due to US interests in countering China’s influence in the Indian Ocean. - Hasina’s letter echoes her long-standing stance against foreign intervention in Bangladesh’s sovereignty. - US authorities have denied any intention of acquiring the island or intervening in Bangladesh’s internal matters. Source: [Times of India](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/us-pressure-over-st-martins-island-led-to-exit-claims-hasinas-letter/articleshow/112449280.cms)

- India's Adani Group has alerted Bangladesh's new government about a $500mn overdue payment crisis from a power project. - The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, blames costly deals under former PM Sheikh Hasina for financial woes. - Adani continues to supply power despite rising dues, urging Bangladesh to stabilize finances with help from lenders like the World Bank. - Bangladesh faces $3.7bn in total power liabilities, with $492mn owed to Adani alone. - Yunus's administration plans to reintroduce competitive bidding and review past energy deals to ensure cost-effectiveness. Source: [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/176b6884-8e69-47ee-990c-c78a26793d7c)