Billion dollar outcome as an employee is unlikely and so far hasnt happened ever … globally.
But ESOPs can give outsized returns, even in India. In India alone: there’s been $400mn esop buy backs in 2021, reported $160mn+ in 2022 and Flipkart announced there $700mn buy back.
There’s been a growing trend of small ticket buybacks by the time a startup raises Series B as well. Still not necessary that you experience that.
Chat with the founder, understand their exercise cost, policy, window, vesting schedule. How do the founders even think and feel about ESOP liquidity? Have they given enough thought to this as well and do they themselves understand these securities?
Also, are these typical esops or SARs that can provide a cash outcome instead of you exercising your options and paying money.
I’d always suggest that value equity. You can earn salary anywhere but working at a startup for 2-4 years and walking away with decent vested options can MAYBE open up some outsized returns to you in the future - jackpot.