Thoughts on post labour economics?

These days, I can't help but keep on thinking about post white collar labour economy and it's implication on our day to day life.... We can keep on dwelling in our wishful cocoon but fact remains that world is going to be vastly different in 4-5 years vis a viz today... In that scenario, let's us discuss some scenario : 1. What will be impact on rental yields of tier 1 cities and consequently what will be overall impact on Indian real estate 2. What would be impact on banking interest rates 3. Where will you park your money in that scenario : Gold, Indian Equity , Big Tech Equity , FD, Real estate or Cash.. My opinion : 1. As high paying jobs for majority of people diminishes, Rental yields of tier 1 cities will come down thereby directly impacting real estate. This will result in huge NPA by those people who have taken loans for 20-30 years period. This will eventually bankrupt real estate developers thereby making real estate deflationary. 2. We will begin to witness overall a deflationary society where cost of services like Education, software, finance etc will drastically reduce. Moreover due to high NPAs, banking interest rate will reduce. Home loans for tenure of 20-30 years will drastically reduce due to increased uncertainty. 3. Gold has historically been inflation proof asset. However will it still be a good asset to invest into in a deflationary society? What are things that will still hold value then? Don't you think current big techs will become East India Company of future indirectly controlling world's economy? I would love to know what do grapevine folks think about the same !

It’s disheartening to see 1000s of people being laid off in recent times. Most of them have a family to feed and EMIs / bills to pay. Today it’s them and tomorrow it could be Me and You as well. And it’s pretty much clear that these new age companies are not empathetic and would go to any extent to meet their goals. Why isn’t any employee doing anything about these atrocities? Following are the few ways to send out a strong message to these employers for abusing / blackmailing / and forcing resignations and PIPs (share more in comments) 1. Boycott their products / Services - make a noise about it on social media. 2. Stop subscribing to their IPOs or start dumping their stocks. 3. Uninstall their apps.

Everyday I open youtube/grapevine/teamblind its has keywords AI + Shocked or it will replace our jobs. My take on why AI might not replace our jobs. 1. Running AI agents or AGI requires significant electric power. If every company starts using it in some way in the future. All the code might be exposed. What if AGI builds its own version and starts selling and shuts down its employer considering its super intelligence. 2. If people dont pay taxes. How will government run? Who will buy the products in the market? Wont people start stealing/hurting others to meet basic needs? 3. Many jobs in todays world use computers in someform. But we only talk about the software engineers. There are non tech people who use computers in their works. Those are pretty much repetitive and can be easily automated. Many are not aware about chatgpt. On the other end people talk about alternative jobs and the safest job is farming in most of the posts. 1. Cant the rich build humanoid robots to do the same. Can't big corporates buy lands and build vertical farms and run with robots. 2. What big corporates are going to do with the excess money laying us off in the end if all the jobs are taken, as if the people running or owning them are going to live their life eternally. Unless they find a way to upload their existence into a robot. 3. I'm not sure if people posting about AI taking jobs have worked on atleast building basic ML models like linear regression or used MNIST data to detect numbers using neural networks. For most of us AI is a blackbox and we do not know about its full potential. My take on AI 1. AI can aid humans in their tasks or make developers like us to wear multiple hats. Like combination of backend, frontend, mobile, devops, machine learning, cybersecurity. Helpnus better debug. 2. I feel like all these CxO's just blabber to get high funding, spread fear while they chill in their yatch. Let me know your thoughts on this.

Am I the asshole? After a few months clear to me an employee was taking company for a ride. Average a few days a week in the office, otherwise sick/on errands, delivered no work. CTC 55L. Before I could fire her, she announced she was taking Maternity leave a few months into the job. Well crap guess I need to pay her for 6 more months more because of laws I don't understand. Rip my bank account. She returns, same issues. I put her on a pip & she resigned telling me I'm sexist and it will be hard to find a new job now. I say sorry, performance was bad, she can do pip and stay if things are better. She askes for 2 months salary and i agree. A lawyer calls telling me I need to pay more or they will file a case. Said I discriminated to her, and it's not legal. I think this person is a bully/psycho/self entitled. But am I the asshole?

I was thinking about this few days back...Today a swiggy employee validated my thoughts so posting here. Layoffs are mainly in cream jobs(20-30% which is hardly 2-3cr source tax web) and in India mainly home loans or highly consumable loans like car or PL are taken by White collars...As per labour law, we ain't protected like in Korea. So, if someone or let's say a major chunk loses his or her job then how the system will absorb this default? Some data... Fy23 Home loan Size is 20 lac crore or $250B (15% of total loans disbursed by amount) 2030 it's about to touch $1T Cagr 23% in HL growth 📈 What if defaults rise in dual digit? Plus exorbitant hike in flat price like literally greater Noida West have 5lac unsold flat but still 10lacs worth flats are being sold at 40-50lacs (poor quality and seelan issues after a month) PS - Usa and China have seen this. (2008 and ongoing in China)

Saw a similar post somewhere from an European and I think it’s pretty valid for India. For context, I am in my early 30s, a home owner, living in tier-2 city with a pretty high salary. Recently got married and my wife also works as an Enterprise AE for a listed US company. Our cost of living is pretty low given the house and tier-2 city. Even if we had a kid, the overall cost of living will not change a lot. I got to where I am, economically, by a combination of hard work and luck. Luck definitely was a huge part of it. Knowing the right people at the right time, working on the right technologies helped a lot more in advancing my career a lot more than grinding for good grades. Even the ability to buy a house without much debt, was partly because I was lucky to sell my shares in a fairly small startup. It would be easy to say things aren’t economically bad based on my own experience or that of my close friends. However, when I look at things more objectively, I can’t help but come to the conclusion that we are screwed as a generation. Except for maybe the top 1%, salaries are not keeping up even with inflation. Housing costs, specially in tier 1/2 cities are unbelievably high even if you want an average apartment. Jobs are no where to be seen. The whole generation is living in the hope of the stock market rally never ending. This seems completely unsustainable as a nation. I might be doing well for now, but I still recognise how these are real problems for most Indians, who’ve been waiting for India’s century for 20 years Given that the services industry contributes more than 50% to the GDP, the current state of joblessness, the overall sluggishness in IT and related sectors, and the fundamental changes happening to the way IT services now work, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a complete recession in the next 4-5 years. Lately, there has been a lot of criticism of anyone expressing anger on how bad things are but I think it’s helpful to talk about this.

Layoffs layoffs here there start ups companies tech giants. What are they trying to downsize? Product hunt says need to narrow down on speed and focus. What focus and speed that they couldn’t do being a bigger organisation. Companies hire left and right and speed and focus wasn’t there or what ? CEO’s still take bigger checks even after downsizing that doesn’t change Thoughts anyone? I’m curious to learn about the thought process

Empathies with laid off people. Sometimes we are overworked and underpaid, then we are capitalist. We want the pay to match the work. There should be a 4 day work week posts keep rolling. Offsite should be huge innit. But, almost all of us know when we are overpaid and underworked. We know when we don't do anything productive and when we get fired, we want labour laws and UBI. Most of us sit in AC office, drinking office tea want UBI, I find it abhorrent and embarassing. I was laid off a few years ago, and I cried and i cried. Then I did a bootstrap startup and my eyes opened up to what's real. Nobody owes anything to anybody in money. Never did, never will. Swiggy has an employee cost of 2000+ cr. Whereas the main parts of their ecosystem the drivers are paid 3500+ cr. Maybe they should have never hired so many people in the first place.