Controversial: India will never overtake China or US

Yes, I agree. #3 won't be too bad (in fact fantastic), if we get there.

The question we should be asking ourselves is how do we get there? This is a question all of us should be discussing with each other despite our differences. The day we stop having constructive conversations with each other is the day we stop making meaningful progress.

From a global macro point of view, We are going to definitely have broken supply chain, we need to ramp up manufacturing. I am sure we can't do it like China did with cheap labour so we need to leap frog to robotic manufacturing.

We have done this in the past, we leapfrogged to service sector from agri without manufacturing, we leapfrogged to mobile first without computers.

We should leapfrog to robotic manufacturing. The Worlds biggest disadvantage is our strength that is we have working age population. We have the potential have teleoperated robotic services across the west and aging countries.

@AITookMyJob Your point about de-dollarization is incorrect. Many countries use dollar not because they like US but because US is the country that can offer "Demand" for their products and can run large current account deficits (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_account_(balance_of_payments). Apart from sanctioned countries, all these countries trade in USD as it's in their best interests to do so. China for economic and cultural reasons, cannot run a deficit (let alone a large deficit like US) and can only offer "Supply". Unless Xi Jingping suddenly changed decided to demolish their industries and becomes a large importer overnight, de-dollarization is not happening.

@3xPlusOne you should research more on debasement of us dollar and their debt. Read how hyperinflation happen. Somehow they have tightly held the system for now. They are just a mistake away from a crisis bigger than 2008

Imagine what would China be like if their economy wasn't closed off to the rest of the world due to sanctions and restrictions. I think they would've already beaten the US.

I agree that the US is living life dangerously at the moment :P But I also think they have some headway to recover their lead if things do go wrong.

China would have gone downhill, if they had. Too many cooks. Some friends have been to Beijing and Shanghai say the infrastructure is beyond what they have seen in any country.

First of all, I feel the need to clarify that I love India (my Bharat) and would give an arm and a leg for it. My thought comes from a place of deep concern and not supercial analysis. Every nationalist should start contemplating and having constructive discussions on how to enhance our nation and this is one of them.

Secondly, dependency ratio is an unproven and unreliable way to measure and predict the chances of the long term growth of an economy. Your claim about TFR being useless is not correct as we have plently of examples in South-east Asia itself of countries that have reaped the benefits of a good TFR. Here's a paper by the IMF that suggests why we should enable career women to become mothers as a way to tackle low fertility rate: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/new-economics-of-fertility-doepke-hannusch-kindermann-tertilt

Believe it or not, they contribute a lot to our GDP (2.5% or INR 3.2 lakh crores last I checked). These figures are by NSSO - the same org which released unemployment figures that made us question the government on what tf it has been doing. If you have any false beliefs that temples are not contributing massively to our economy, then you need to have an open mind and research more, my friend.

i meant that only, i already know the numbers

Agreed. Amping up manufacturing should have happened yesterday - it is that important.

I'm not sure how we would go about leapfrogging this time to robotic manufacturing to be honest.

That is the constructive discussion we need to do here. Every country is gonna try robotics and leverage it. The good thing is we have consumerism so we can bootstrap the initial demand and experimentation before we focus on exports.

I attended IMTEX 2024, I was amazed at what the industry has achieved without the Techies, we should just work these folks to advance their products.

Very good, if we get there. But my point was something else entirely:-

It will probably not be "India's century" as many people claim but much more likely to be "China's century".

Time will tell, century of X/Y is just a marketing gimmick. We know where China leads, lacks.

My honest takeaway from all the things happening around is - I am a strong believer of wealth has a trickle down effect, we have proof points from 90s. As macro factors are improving, we can hope for a better (financial) living standards for generations to come.

I agree, extreme optimism does help a lot. But I'm more of a constructive figure-out-how kind of a person. I would much rather ask questions and figure out how we'll get there than have optimism that someone or something else will get us there. Once we have good solutions (which I do believe we're capable of finding), insane levels of optimism will make a lot of sense.

Till then, better to keep thinking and asking questions.

Extreme Optimism along with figure-out-how, not alone optimism can take us there, but we should never ever publicly talk about pessimistic views, it creates doubts in the minds of people around you, it instills fear and change of perception. By discussing pessimistic views publicly like this you have impacted or created doubt in the mind of atleast a single person here who will go on to choose another country over India. It's an L "Will never overtake, VERY bad, bureaucracy is pathetic, impossible to overcome" are the kind of words you are using.

Then you haven't been reading all the comments :)

Guilty as charged. The delusion is unreal.

Blue collar worker shortage -agreed Population risks - agreed Food inflation - possible but less likely, solvable Communal demographic risks - agreed but few countries have managed to solve that too with large scale missionary programs and simple spread of atheism :P

Difficult bro...large population ...things will go haywire even if 1% of the minority population decide to take law in their hands ....we have seen that happening in Manipur where relentless demographic change came with serious ramifications..although news has been suppressed thanks to NE location of the state...any change in demographics especially in Gujrat, Maharashtra, UP, TN, Karnataka and Rajastan will be detrimental to the country's growth..