Discussion about post white collar labour economics

Agreed on all 3. After a lot of pondering over months, my worldview is similar.

A price collapse due to massive deflation is inevitable post-AGI. When cost of cognition is cheap, everyone (mostly big tech at first) can build almost everything for a few dollars or cents. Competition might drive prices down into the drain for most useful digital products. Most digital products will not survive post-AGI too as AGI most likely can directly work with your database so screw your UI and APIs.

Everything post-AGI is speculation. Real estate is already a bubble waiting to burst and will 100% not survive any deflationary pressures. We might (lower probability) even have currency collapse - if fewer people want INR and can't do anything with it. Gold/silver might still be useful but again depends on currency dynamics. Big tech stock is definitely going to valuable as they will be the oligarchs and the British East-India or Weyland-Yutani of our time.

These questions can not be correctly answered by plebs like us as they need a deep understanding of economics and a lot of fundamental research. Just by pure guesswork, I think rental yield at tier 1 cities is going to stagnate or only increase mainly due to metro development that is ongoing. When the metro routes reach a critical point (perhaps in 5 year's time), the once inaccessible areas would become a good location and thus lead to a real-estate boom. Not to mention, indias urbanization rate is low, so there would be a lot of demand for real estate in cities.

As for interest rate, it is completely dependent on inflation and closely associated with US federal rates. For a high growth economy like ours, there is a very little chance of deflation in the next few decades.

Further, your basic premise "as high paying job for majority of people diminishes" is premature. First, the number of people employed by tech is less than 10M people in India, so they are nowhere the "majority", though they are very important for cities like Bangalore or Pune. Second, we don't know for sure if AI is going to cause that much disruption in the workforce or how governments around the world are going to react. For all we know, the governments can simply shut down AI companies if it comes down to widespread job loss or heavily tax the AI companies.

I don't agree with any of these. It's too soon to discuss this.
This is more like a tech bro in the valley which has never worked out in the rest of the world

Wanted to know your reasoning on point 1. Why would that happen? Due to AI or something else?

This shows how horse thinking works. As horse can see only what is in front of it and it considers the entire universe to be what is in front of it. Whereas the reality is different.

In today's economic world, there are 2 major contributors to the economy : Services (of which software is a part) and Manufacturing.

AI may impact software majorly but not manufacturing (i.e. labour intensive industry). Also, as @3xPlusOne pointed out software jobs are a fraction of overall jobs, so the overall impact would be less.

Apart from that, there would be people employed in the software field still as people will be needed to control the AI and to drive the results out of it so nature of jobs will change but jobs will still be there.

Now, coming to rental yields, few cities which are dependent on software services such as Bangalore and Pune may face some dull period but ultimately these cities have shown innovation is the key so I'm sure new AI focused jobs will mushroom in these cities thus making the low growth/stagnant rental yields a temp phenomenon.

Big W take. Massive agree.

There still will be plenty of white collar jobs that state of the art AI can't do , AI will just make the gross output much bigger by increasing productivity so the supply will increase for the things that ai can aid in doing but on the other hand a much safer bet is investing on things which is inherently AI proof so the supply of them wouldn't improve so massively.

Doomerism from people having no idea how the economy works. The only threat to the economy and high paying jobs is deterioration of world peace and unstable political environment, which are a big reason for the bad job market we have rn. Even if you listen to the FED press conference, JPow says he raised interest rates because there was a supply shock and they had to reduce demand to match with supply to control inflation. AI won't reduce jobs imo, at best it will just change the nature of jobs. Mostly that means we all will have better jobs to do. AI won't ruin your life, rising wealth inequality and global conflicts might though.

These all are based on the assumption that AI will take most of the white collar jobs. That's not going to happen as the biggest chunk of taxpayers are in that segment. If they don't pay the taxes, the government will collapse as the government services will not be there. Try reading how the US government has broken the monopolies and large conglomerates. That will subsequently happen because there is no bigger monopoly than the government. 5 years is too early for these. For the last 2 decades, we have been hearing about NY's high rent and some companies have left but that didn't bring down the rents. It's still high and will be high for the coming decade.

What your opinion on buying a flat in tier 1 cities now? Or which is the right time to buy a good family apartment ?