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Data Scientists on

by salt

Gojek

Daily Series #1: Geeking out → Poker Math

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content. I assume you guys know some basics of Texas Hold'em Poker. Flop refers to "the dealing of the first three face-up cards to the board" Now, let's look at the table and their positions: 1. Blinds: First to act every street after pre-flop. 2. Early positions: Under the Gun(UTG) 3. Middle positions 4. Late positions: Button and Cut Off The order for a 10 person game would be: Small Blind(SB) → Big Blind(BB) → Under the Gun(UTG) → UTG+1 → UTG+2 → MP1 → MP2 → MP3 → Cutting off the Button (CO) → Button (BTN) and then order repeats ... Some insights: 1. Blinds see the flop at a discount because they are compelled to play but are at a disadvantage because they are first to act. 2. This means that more money is made in late positions because they have more information to act on. 3. However in short stack situations, where effective stack size is small then early positions are better because you have the opportunity to go all in before someone else can as you can maintain Fold equity(Equity from Aggression). So, Expected Value or E(V) is how do you determine whether you should call or fold basis the size of the pot and your contribution to it basis the number of outs(potential winning hands) you have. E(V) = Win % * Win Amt - Lose % * Lose Amt For example: Villain(V) [UTG+1] = $500 Hero(H) (MP1) = $500 SB/BB + Ante = 20/40 + 10 Here, Ante is the bet everyone has to make every hand. This is to make the pot worth playing for everyone. Pre-Flop: $140 H = A 10 (suited Hearts) V = ? (Unknown) 1 Fold V raises $120 H calls $120, 5 Folds Flop: $380 The flop is 8 Heart, 3 Heart, K Club V = $370 (All In) H = ? (Do you call or fold?) Solution: A call is positive E(V) if: Win % > Call Amt/ Pot after Call You have a strong hand if you can get a flush here. which means you need one of the next two cards Heart Heart Club | Heart* | Heart* Which means: Win % = 1 - (Odds of 2 cards not being Hearts) = 1 - (40/49 * 39/48) = ~ 36% So, 370/1120 = ~33% is Call Amt/Pot after Call Since, 36% > 33% Hero should call. E(V) = 36% * (380+x) - x * 66% E(V) cut off at 0, x = $404 You stand to make $ if you decide to call that bet. You can raise any amount till $404 for a positive E(V) after which you should mathematically fold. An easier way to calculate this is to use 2% if you can only see one card after flop and 4% if you can see both cards. That way, Win % here would be = 4% * 9 = 36% 9 outs because, 9 cards that are Hearts are left in the deck.

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Confessions on

by FreshRaita

Stealth

dirty tricks played by orgs to Lay Off employees

It's getting dirtier by the day and sure some orgs are still up to their dirty tricks. The models: - Appraise and then Lay Off: Why bother putting bandaid on a stab wound? Anyways the folks are going to fight how to answer the ..why were you laid off war, and now you are adding another twist.. why were you appraised and then laid off? - Low appraisals to force quit: Undervalue them so they leave on their own. It’s a leeches way to cut costs. Kill morale 100%. Severance penny spent $0. - Trap them in PIP: Dress it up however you want - very very few escape this death sentence. - Silent treatment: No assignments, No meetings. Watch them spiral into anxiety and leave to save their sanity. - Workload overload: Drown them in work until they break. No need for layoffs list until they make it to your collapse list first. - Strategic reorg: Re-organize them out of existence. Offer a demotion or a proxy role in a random team that you know they dont want as an alternative. - Sudden policy changes: oh! I have seen so many I can't keep up with this one. New policies that make their life hell. People leave to escape your pettiness. - Mandatory relocation: Demand they move to an undesirable location. Then you treat remote employees like outsiders. Exclude them from key projects, conversations until they feel like foster care kids, second-class citizens. You know the outcome from there on. - Use the "Culture Fit" excuse: Call out how they’re not a culture fit. Vague, unchallengeable, and forces them out without severance. And don't sell me "the org has got to do what it has got to do to survive" line. I don't buy that If you have seen this being done, I understand your silence, but I don't value it. If this has been done to you or someone close to you, I am sorry. Orgs and the people failed you. We could be 1000x better than what we are operating as.