Personal Finance15mo
by SquishyQuokkaGojek
F*** your calls and F*** your puts: Insane Volatility in NIFTY
I wonder if buying Calls and Puts at the same strike price will work really well 🤔
JazzyPenguin
[Must Read] Markets will Correct 📉
- Central Banks have almost achieved their objective of controlling inflation through tightened monetary policy. Though the CPI is inching lower, asset inflation is resurfacing through stock prices and real estate.
- Many listed companies that came out with the quarterly numbers are nothing good to talk about. Growth and profits are subdued and for small and mid caps the numbers are decimated but the stocks are still trading at a historical premium.
- Analysts will once again start downgrading the earnings forecast and that will start the downward momentum. Once again people will undergo the "Flight to Quality" effect.
- No of Bankruptcies is steadily increasing
- No of Job openings are trending lower
- Most of the US listed firms that have borrowed at a lower interest rate in 2021 are coming up for renewals this year. By the time they refinance, they will be doing it at a higher interest rate which will impact their PAT as a result their EPS estimates will take a biting.
- Gold looks attractive from a market cycle standpoint.
My Recommendation:
- Have an emergency fund for at least 6 to 9 months to cover your expenses.
- Exit overvalued small and microcaps stocks. Move to a reasonably valued large cap.
- Have health insurance for you and your dependents.
- Move out of small cap mutual funds and have some allocation to debt funds.
Let me know your thoughts.
I hope 2025 turns out better.
14mo ago
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SwirlySushi
Akridata14mo
Man, not one month of 2024 has completed, and hoping for a good 2025. Tough times!
WigglyDonut
Ola Electric14mo
Tough times in the job market especially for entry level talent and certain skill sets that have suddenly become over valued owing to the excesses of 2021 and 2022. The Indian economy however is booming and will in all likelihood continue to do so for most of this decade as we make the most of our demographic dividend.
DizzyDumpling
Turing14mo
It is fine, you don't need to end on a positive note. We all know how well we are using the demographic dividend.
QuirkyDumpling
MSCI14mo
Whether to cash out small and mid cap or not depends on your horizon, if your horizon is 3-5 yrs, stay invested and take benefit of correction.
However i dont agree with this analysis totally, this scare is going on from a long time. Market has its own cyvle and it's hard to predict with current macro and micro economic situations. So stay safe but wait and watch before making a call.
JazzyPenguin
Stealth14mo
I would incline on this framework. I started investing in direct equities from the bear market of 2012 and this time is never different. What makes the market interesting is the different views of the participants. At the end of the day it's our money, our conviction. :)
JazzyPenguin
Stealth14mo
The least I can do is to book the overvalued pockets and move my money to safety. When the correction comes, I can deploy patiently. :)
FloatingHamster
Stealth14mo
Not listening to anybody who predicts market movement.
ZestyMochi
ServiceNow14mo
Nothing is happening till elections 🙂
JazzyPenguin
Stealth14mo
FIIs have initiated the profit booking. Inflows are negative.
PerkyMochi
Murugappa Group14mo
That happens because FIIs have Jan-Dec cycle. They create liquidity in Jan for the remaining year.
ZoomyMuffin
Stealth14mo
Agree Agree Agree
There has been over optimism which has led to the recent rally. We need to temper down
WigglyDonut
Ola Electric14mo
I don't agree with your analysis. The era of easy borrowing and low interest rates has ended. This may impact startups who depend on easy access to funds. However the economy is growing in the range of 6-7%. Top companies in many industries are growing at twice that rate. Valuation should be seen in the context of profit growth. It is completely incorrect to say stocks are trading at a "historical premium" Quite the opposite. In certain sectors like financial services the P/E ratios of most large companies are currently lower than during the bottom of the COVID induced crash. Markets will experience volatility but in the next 12-24 months they will inevitably rise. One can certainly play safe by avoiding small caps.. However, if one has the appetite to deal with a bit of volatility (max -20%) one should stay invested rather than try to time the market / move to debt funds.
As far as the US economy is concerned, analysts have been shouting about impending recession for the last two years! Nothing of the kind is evident In spite of the rise in interest rates brought about by the Federal Reserve (worried about inflation), the US economy continues to grow at a healthy pace. Last year the US probably showed higher real GDP growth than China.
JazzyPenguin
Stealth14mo
What % of your portfolio is in direct stocks ex mutual funds?
JazzyPenguin
Stealth14mo
Financial services should be looked at from a PB perspective not PE. Secondly, look at the slippages and S1, S2, S3 loans you will know how fragile the loan book is and NPAs will arrive later. Tread carefully on financial services companies. Good luck with your investing journey!
DerpyLlama
Flipkart14mo
Any particular large cap? Nifty index is also made of large cap only. If market corrects, doesn't that too will be affected?
JazzyPenguin
Stealth14mo
Yes, it will be impacted. You will fall in line with the market and not more. Index is the safest bet and many studies have confirmed that 90% of active funds don't outperform the index benchmark.
JazzyBoba
Adobe14mo
Bhai, it's not a market for SIP. It's a stock pickers market. As simple as that
SleepyHamster
Stealth14mo
I read a similar post in 2021, saying COVID wave 2 will come, lockdowns, widespread losses and destroy valuation by 50%. SENSEX was at 36K and it mentioned going down to 20-25k.
Guess what, that never happened, Sensex is 71k now. I did not invest and booked profit at 35k Sensex.
You never know, when the bottom hits and growth starts.
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Curated from across
by BouncyDonutFounder
How much bottom we will see in indian markets?
Look at my today's loss & I am overall 5% down since the start of the month.
Top comments
Show off karne ka tarika thoda kezual hai 😱 haaaye daiiiya, paaaaanch laakh !!
I was 15% up overall, I'm at 5.56% today 😪😪😪
Indian Startups16mo
by SquishyQuokkaGojek
How will this impact Indian Startups/Jobs in 2024?
My first thought is that, inflation adjusted returns will soon become lucrative for investors as some amount of capital returns to VC Funds.
Any other thoughts/differing PoVs?
by BubblyDonutDeloitte
FMCG Correction!
So recently all major FMCG companies have corrected by almost 25-30%. Do you think this might be a good time to invest some money and buy the dip? Or is there a possibility of a further fall?