How will this impact Indian Startups/Jobs in 2024?
My first thought is that, inflation adjusted returns will soon become lucrative for investors as some amount of capital returns to VC Funds.
Any other thoughts/differing PoVs?
As we bid farewell to the challenges of the past, let's delve into why 2024 is poised to be a game-changer for the Indian Startups! 🚀
In 2020, the world weathered the storm of COVID, followed by unprecedented quantitative easing. We then saw that in 2021 the bull run came soaring. Investors, fueled by the appetite for riskier assets led to a funding boom for startups as salaries soared.
Fast forward to 2022, and the music is about to stop. The realization that the Fed would hike rates to curb inflation means that funding is about to dry up as big money will be invested away into debt/T-Bills. Though demand remained robust, the stock market felt the impact as JPow raised the interest rates.
Late 2022 and 2023 saw the tech landscape experiencing layoffs, and startups facing significant headwinds. It’s a wonder if anyone raised this year.
But here's the twist—2024 looks brighter. The stock markets have rebounded to all-time highs, signaling that things may be on the rise. Despite geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iraq, the macro outlook for India shines bright.
For Indian Startups? VC Funding is still here to stay. So keep your heads down and keep building. From what I am hearing, it is set to make a roaring comeback. There is now significant rationality in the funding ecosystem leading to realistic valuations.
However, this revival will come with a plot twist. Newer companies, fueled by fresh funding, are set to rise, while most of the lofty valuations of those who raised in 2021 are about to crash and burn.
So buckle up folks. Let’s see where it takes us.
What do you think? 🤔
The first crucible will be when the fundraise cohort of 2021/22 goes in for the next round of fund raise. These could be Series A/B/C.
Those renewed valuations will determine what comes next. Knowing what I know across B2B SaaS, there are going to be massive haircuts. B2C appears to be worse off.
Where there are deep haircuts, we'll see follow up layoffs. These have already happened in 2023 where founders are self-aware. The founders who continue to kick the can down the road, we'll see those come up for layoffs in 2024. It'll be ugly.
There is no funding winter. The smart VCs have enough powder that's been kept dry for the follow through rounds. It's just the flaky ideas that don't get early stage funding anymore.
Bang on. There has been a wide gap in terms of startups raising their next round. They will soon go and raise, and when that happens, we’ll know who’s been swimming naked
Agreed so much. It’s actually going to pan out exactly like this. Good ideas will get what it wants and bad ideas get nothing at all.
That's a very positive thought, and I do believe so as well. That said, there a couple of negative signals (Folks like Jamie Dimon calling out deeper recession in 2024, recent push to layoffs by not just startups but also a couple of big tech companies)
My bet is personally on second half of 2024 where we see things turning for better.
Jamie Dimon might be pulling down the prices before he gets in for the next bull run.
Its going to suck. Wfo will become more. Gen ai will eat into job market. Crap like ola and byjus will steal money from retails. Common man will get poorer and weaker as govt takes away more liberties while morons cheer them. Expect communalism to thrive as the majority of the country says where can't see it and no data will exist as most people live under the bubble of growth.
Good luck making any money in this country if you have this love of pessimism.
Graveyard, stressed asset consolidation, sector level write off by growth investors and most importantly a severe reduction in growth capital allocated to India. Returns profile of the country will have to demonstrate a 4-5x realisation and not mark up on a large cheque to attract growth capital.
Lot of seemingly large businesses will turn out to not be doing well, a great leading indicator is sub sectors which have seen stress sale or shut downs in 2023.
This is indeed a very interesting take.
My first thought is that, inflation adjusted returns will soon become lucrative for investors as some amount of capital returns to VC Funds.
Any other thoughts/differing PoVs?
While there are lot of VCs coming out with their ‘expert’ outlook on 2024, let’s be real to share our own predictions. Idea is to share and learn and not just mudsling.
Let me go first with few of my own
2021: Indian SaaS market size was at $11B
2030: Indian SaaS market expected to cross $50B
Context
The Indian SaaS ecosystem is booming - 11 companies surpassing $100M+ ARR. So let's dive into the major tailwinds in the ecosystem
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