Machine Learning Engineer

Analyst

Here is the link where i mentioned about the SBI trade, I am fully scaled in with avg Price of 638.   https://share.gvine.app/sugCF7MjAeSSFkvh6  I have explained everything on the chart. Ideally th...

Welcome to Personal Finance's Private Community

Here is the link where i mentioned about the SBI trade, I am fully scaled in with avg Price of 638. 

https://share.gvine.app/sugCF7MjAeSSFkvh6

I have explained everything on the chart. Ideally the price should consolidate for a few more sessions, even fall some % points, before moving higher. If this is an aggressive trade SL can be around 5950 on a daily closing basis, mere violation is not enough.
For Positional trade (12-18 Month) SL should be 5200.

MARKET COMMENTARY :-

For the last 2,3 weeks, i have been booking out profit and have raised 40% cash as the market was getting extended for my liking.

But the market is not showing any signs of slowing down, Last week Nifty oil& Gas, yesterday Nifty IT, today Realty, metal. If Bank nifty starts to chip in we'll head a lot higher. Every other day 1 or another space is setting up apart from main indices.
Eg. Broking/AMC companies (BSE, CDSL, Angelone, Tata investment) in the last 2,3 days.

Our biases have 0 value until the chart confirms it, So i have bought Nifty FUT last week to up my exposure  to 100% again.

I am also inclined to take positions in stock like SBI, JSW STEEL, WIPRO, APAR IND etc Where i have RISK:REWARD in my favour. But newly built positions have to be monitored closely.

I will not be scaling if things are over extended like for eg. TATA M, CANARA BANK, DLF etc.


MARKET IS SUPREME. Don't miss out on the rally on basis of your biases.

APAR IND - SWING/POSITIONAL TRADE SETUP & SOME MARKET COMMENTARY

APAR IND - SWING/POSITIONAL TRADE SETUP & SOME MARKET COMMENTARY- Grapevine

Here is the post where i mentioned about 3 live trades.

https://share.gvine.app/pUjNH4n7qnU3kYgM9

SBI - I have added more of SBI at 732 today. If i had 500 quantities, I have added 250 more.

GENERAL INSURANCE - IT went up 25% and gave back all the gains. I am still holding, a good amount of shakeout has happened.

APAR IND - Nice bit of shakeout here as well just around buy price lets see. Still holding. 

New positions i am currently building in -

SBI - Added Today
RELIANCE - Added Today
COAL INDIA- Added Yesterday
GAIL - 33% today
BPCL - 33% Today
HINDPETRO -33% Today
J&K BANK
OIL INDIA
Angel one
NIACL
KARURVYASA B
UFO MOVIES INDIA

For some stock i am using 1 time scale in SBI, Reliance,Coal India. For the names which are stretched i am using a pyramiding approach .ie. 33% in 3 rounds. If the market reverses these stretched names will fall a lot so I don't want to take a lot of risk. 

I will keep buying until Nifty is above 50 DMA. The moment i see it slipping below it, I will stop buying. 

Its good sign that Nifty Bank is stabilising and trying to move up. 

Also the current sector leader .i.e Oil and Gas, Energy, PSU, PSE are recovering well after a fall.

SWING TRADING UPDATE - NEW WATCHLIST

I had shared about 3 trades here and rationale behind taking it. You can check it here - 

https://share.gvine.app/sugCF7MjAeSSFkvh6

SBI - BUY Price 635 Up around 10%
General Insurance - 360 Up around 25%
APAR IND - Just around the buy price of  6200.


It is not of surprise to me what SBI has been doing among all the Large Caps. It was doing the right thing for the last 1 month and then started moving silently. 

Bank Nifty is not in the right structure, we will get a periodic pullback in SBI. The strategy is to hold and sit tight. I will use periodic pullback to add again into SBI again and will hold until the structure deteriorates. Trend is not going to be smooth like in DLF, Tata M etc. 

PSU bank space was silent for so many years and now they are posing a great competition to private banks. Private banks need to revamp to attract at such prices.

GENERAL INSURANCE - It is a small cap and moves can be pretty wild. I did not explain the structure, i will do it once trade hits a certain %.

APAR IND is taking its time, i like it when Stock consolidates absorb all the supply, shakeout a lot of participant and then move higher. Lets see how this trade pans out.

Any trade that will be taken from now on needs to monitor closely.

UPDATE ON LIVE TRADE THAT WERE SHARED HERE

This was my last post where i mentioned that Nifty 100 is the way to go ahead if one wants to build newer positions.

https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5

Stocks like ABB, SIEMENS, PIDILITE , COLPAL, MARUTI, LT, JINDAL S, TATA M , SUNPHARMA  are few names that have offered Entry opportunities.

When i am getting a good Risk : Reward, i buy whatever i wanna buy in 1 time scale in.

Out of the above list SIEMENS, ABB, MARUTI, COLPAL started moving before the indices. Generally these stocks are the leaders of the next upleg . Such stocks need to be tracked closely, they will offer plenty of opportunity to those who missed it. More often than not they will outperform the market. 

Don't chase any stock that is flying eg. Maruti, ABB wait for Risk : Reward to come in your favour. If it gives a mini pullback, get in, if not then let it fly. Look for another opportunity.


I have also built positions in Nifty Future at 22,220 today. In my last post i updated about entering Nifty Bank, that trade is still on and i have captured 700 odd points, Let's see what happens in days to come.

Pullback got confirmed today in Nifty. It broke out of the high volume node range, valid pullback ended , it kept bouncing above multiple AWAP levels (forgot to add that in the photo). This was a confluence of data points for me.

Getting in the market at the right time is very crucial. If one gets it right, the journey ahead for the next upleg is relatively easy. The market will shakeout late participants, if you get it right, you get a lot of cushion to work with and you wont be shaken out of the market that easily.

We are moving up in the medium term. If i see anything changing or i cut my positions, i will update here. Bank nifty and nifty is a deadly combo, i hope Bank Nifty keeps chipping in on regular intervals.


Happy Trading :)

IS THIS UPMOVE IN THE MARKET SUSTAINABLE ?  SOME UPDATE ON THE STOCKS.

Link to my 1st Post where i discussed about SBI.

https://share.gvine.app/yYujDrw15CLsLxC59

I have scaled in 70% in SBI. (Avg 635). Bank Nifty is struggling but this is the Risk Reward kind of trade for me.

I just took 1 trade in Small cap space last week GICRE  with Average buy price of 360. I will make a detailed post after it gives me more than 50% return or if i book out.

In my next post i will bust a few myths/misconceptions related to trading and one of them might be holding you back from venturing into this field.

At the end of the post i have given 5 stock e.g. check them out as well.

---------------------------------------------

Why i selected Inox wind for the post not every stock in my small-mid cap portfolio is up over 100%. I wanted to show yall that capturing such a move is totally possible. You need not to have in-depth knowledge of fundamentals like margins, M3 money, Nifty PE, unemployment rate etc or business understanding in depth. With all due respect there is a reason why 99% of economists don't make massive wealth out of the market. Having a knowledge of these things is 1 skill & generating wealth out of the market is a completely different skill. I am trying to master the 2nd one so if you are an average person like me,Read ahead.


It's not like I don't look at these fundamentals data points. You can have 1000 data points but you need just a few actionable ones. There is a thin line between analysis and analysis Paralysis. Most people get stuck in this paralysis. Sometimes i decide how much exposure i need to have depending on the dollar index sometimes depending on what crude oil is doing. But I don't over-complicate it too much. When to look at what data point we will get it with experience. I am still in the learning phase.


Growth lies in small mid cap space and capturing such moves at the right time through just fundamentals is a stretch. That's where technicals come in for me. I can capture such moves.


CHECK OUT THE COMMENT --

[TRADING] HOW I CAPTURED 100%+ COUNTING RETURNS IN THIS STOCK FROM NOV CYCLE

The broad trajectory of the market is going to be up with volatility. Some adjustments need to be made to the trading style.

https://share.gvine.app/yXc9GETSiWn8c2Uz8

In this post i had stated that ICICI is setting up for the move. I entered 50% last week, and i have fully scaled-in this week.

There are 2 themes in the market right now. The one that has momentum for eg, Nifty Oil and Gas, Energy , PSU, AUTO. These sectors have underlying momentum but risk reward is not great, these can exhibit crazy movements but volatility can kill your trade.


Other themes are Bank Nifty, FMCG, CONSUMPTION , METAL.Risk reward exits here. These sectors are under performing and undervalued in the current market context. From here on i am only going to build new positions  in these sectors. For eg in Bank i have built positions in SBI, ICICI, now Axis if it sets up.


SBI is taking its sweet time, consolidation is healthy. I want to build another 200 quantities so i am buying 20 25 stocks daily to take advantage of the volatility. It will set up again and move up.

Let's see how things progress.

WHAT CAN TAKE NIFTY HIGHER FROM HERE WITH RISK REWARD?

This was my last market update. I built a portfolio in real-time, explaining what I'm doing and why I'm doing it.

https://share.gvine.app/VaSwtbqJVzF384YRA

I have given a list stocks in the comment section where i want to build newer positions. I have given some psychology related tips as well. Check them out.


Out of the list Jindal, ABB, Siemens, Colpal, ICICI B, TATA S I did cut down on ICICI Bank and Colpal last week as they were around 2-3% gain. I found another opportunity in Havells as well. Although I didn't make a post about it or update it here, I did discuss it with    @TheOatmeal in the DMs when i got in. 
My avg Buy price is 1575.

I have certainly been very lucky in this cycle. Well it's not just pure luck i did identify leaders of the current run and have been doing this for quite some time now. But the moves in my portfolio have been amazing and pretty smooth during recent fall as well. My top 3 winners are -

Jindal - +23.14%
ABB - +39% 
SIEMENS - +44.32%
These 3 stocks have given me a lot of cushion to operate further. 
None of the above 3 stocks violated their trending pivot during the market fall.

I made a few posts about SBI and that trade is still on. Check it here.
https://share.gvine.app/yXc9GETSiWn8c2Uz8

 https://share.gvine.app/yYujDrw15CLsLxC59


Today's session was excellent. The Nifty moved around 300 points in just 20 to 25 minutes, potentially wiping out months of gains for option writers and cleared up all the short term bearish players out of the system.Such moves in a single day can decimate months and months of hardwork. Just stay away from options if you can.

VIX often rises during election years, as seen in 2014 and 2019. I will only be concerned if it crosses 30 and stays there. Otherwise, it's not worth overanalyzing.People link rise in VIX with Possibility of government changes but if the market senses a shift, 8-12% would just go in a few sessions. The market will not give us a lot of time to manage our positions.

[TRADING] OPPORTUNITY TO BUY OR OPPORTUNITY TO SELL ?

Welcome to Indian Startups's Private Community

Check comment for update on silver & next sectors.


A lot of things have happened since my last update. I was caught in election volatility & booked out 50% of my positions. I was hoping for further slippages in the market, but prices started recovering the next day & eventually, I built everything back in the next 2 days.


Currently from last week i have started booking out profits from my positional trades. 1 day before the election my portfolio for this FY was up around 26% & due to election volatility it came down to about 9 %. It is back again to the previous levels, a bit above.


I wont sell my top 2 stocks but i am booking out the rest gradually.


Now the rationale behind locking profit is that, in the last month, the portfolio fluctuated from 26 - 9 - 29. If markets go into trouble, I don't want to give back 20% twice to the market in 1 month. If I have 100 shares, I book out 5-10 every day, so that I can get a good average if the price keeps moving up. I have already booked 50% of my total positions. This process is called BOOKING OUT ON STRENGTH. I am taking advantage of the parabolic move. Us markets are currently thinning out & a handful of stocks are taking it higher, soon our market will experience the same. As of now there are no triggers in our market. But it just takes 1 session for the sentiment to change.


Now, I cannot let my money sit idle in my account, that would be foolish for a trader. What I am doing is getting into sector ETFs of Banks, It , Auto. ETFs are less volatile, if the market is going to move 5-7% more from here until Budget, my returns will be in tune with the market. I am fine if I don't outperform the market for the next 5-7%. After budget i will reasses the situation and will get back again into equities.


It is also a good feeling to book out & bring that money home. Whenever opportunities arise in subsequent quarters I can hit it hard & go full throttle since I have a good cushion.

Silver Moving , Buying frenzy in the market, Locking profits, Next opportunities..

SBI has moved around 20% for me. I'll explain how I plan to manage this trade ahead.

You can read how and why I picked SBI here - 

https://share.gvine.app/yYujDrw15CLsLxC59

I have created my Substack, & I will begin posting there next week. I will drop the link here, so subscribe if you're interested :) I will also show who is interested, how to build a trading portfolio and enter the market at the right time in the next cycle after the correction. How one can outperform the market.
                      -------------------------
The stocks that are on my radar are- 
ICICI B , JSW, Wipro, M&M. M&M has already given the entry but will wait for the pullback to get in. 

I picked up Wipro around 460. I selected Wipro before I started posting here, but will explain in another post how I chose it, just to give an idea of how to catch such moves.

JSW Steel and ICICI Bank are getting ready, and I will initiate a trade when I get confirmation.  I have entered with a probe quantity just to track it on a daily basis. They are doing the right thing for now. Again, I will only initiate if I get confirmation. I won't preempt.

Why am I going behind JSW, SBI, ICICI Bank, and Wipro? Why behind Bank Nifty, Metal index,Nifty IT when PSU, Infra, Realty, Oil, and Energy are going crazy?

Look at the index of Auto, Realty, Infra, PSU, Oil, and Gas, Energy. They have been consistently outperforming. Now if Nifty has to move up from here, which I think it will in weeks to come, I want to be in sectors and stocks that can offer a better good Risk:Reward. You always have to think about what can move next in the market.

SBI, JSW, ICICI Bank, etc., are undervalued and underperforming. The sectors I mentioned above are outperforming but overvalued at this stage.

Look at SBI and Wipro both have gone up 20% in the last 1 month without making any noise. I like it when the stock I hold keeps moving up without making noise on social media and news channels.

CHECK COMMENT SECTION FOR SBI.

[TRADING] SBI HAS MOVED 20%. NOW WHAT TO DO NEXT ? ALSO, SOME OTHER BIG OPPORTUNITIES ?

A few months ago I wrote about how i caught 100% + returns in the Counter - Inox wind. It has set up again.
 Here is the link to the Inox wind post.

 https://share.gvine.app/sugCF7MjAeSSFkvh6


Accumulation has been happening in Inox Wind for the last 6 months, and now it has started to move up with a wide-range upthrust bullish candle and a rise in volume. I wrote in my post that it would absorb all the selling and then move up again. This is a new entry opportunity, and I have doubled my quantity from the last time. This is how we can catch multi baggers by increasing the quantity every time it sets up. I have converted my trading position into an investment now, and I will start reading about the company, and start getting involved beyond charts. This is one example of technicals and fundamentals that can be combined. Even though this is an investment for me, I have a stop loss level ,nothing in the market I do without a stop loss.

Here is a link to my last Post. 
 https://share.gvine.app/nFW8z2BvpgCpejMWA

I had updated here that I am 65-70% cash and will be deploying money only into sector ETFs like Auto, PSE, CPSE, Midcap 150 and would wait for stability to return for equities.

Now Nifty has given an opportunity to go long on Friday. Whatever happened in the last 15 days was a pullback as of today. I have started to build positions in equities now.

A lot of things are happening currently in the global scenario, from wars, rate cuts, to US elections. We could be prone to a lot of pullbacks and shakeouts. One should not expect short-term profit kinds of trades to work out. It is entirely possible that we could break the recent low of 23,900 on Nifty, and another down leg can follow. What would I do? I will simply follow my risk management rules and will get out if 23,900 breaks on Nifty and will wait for another opportunity to arise.

Sectors where i am keen to build positions are - Nifty Consumption , Nifty service sector ,Nifty Large mid 250.

Generally, I scale positions in two ways: one time scale-in or 50-50% after each confirmation. The market currently is not conducive for a one-time scale-in. I will explain this with a recent example.

I got into ICICIGI on Friday around 2010. I entered this with the pullback framework that I follow. Initially I got in with 50% only, and after a mini pullback on the hourly TF, I entered again today around 2015, and now I am fully scaled in. I will cut 50% if it breaches 1990 with a wide-range bearish candle with volume expansion and will cut another 50% after the breach of 1930. As the price keeps going up, my stop losses will keep moving up. If the stock moves 7% or more, I’ll make my risk zero, meaning if it reverses from +7%, I will simply cut it out at cost.

Why this aggressive approach? I screen 450-500 stocks and then make a watchlist of 30-40 names, and from there, I enter or scale into 10-12 names. I enter one of the strongest stocks in the market, and such stocks generally don't exhibit massive weakness.

It is entirely possible that I would cut ICICIGI around 1950-60 and then stock might set up again in a few days, which has happened many times in the past. I would get back in again after confirmation. I am very nimble in building back positions if i am stopped out. 
I act quickly to get back in, but I am strict about not risking my capital.
When I am wrong, I want to be wrong with the smallest of margins, and when I am right, I will just sit and hold, e.g., Inox Wind.

Sister stock movement .i.e stocks from sector moving together, is happening in Insurance space. SBI LIFE , ICICIPRULI, ICICIGI are exhibiting strength. I will get into 2 stocks from these 3. Such a sister stock movement increases the probability of trade working in your favour a great deal.


A few more names that are in my watchlist and i may enter them.

- NAVKARCORP
- SBI LIFE , ICICIPRULI (Today)
- NAUKRI
- RAMRATAN
- GODFREYPHILIP (Gave opp yesterday) 
- ETHOS
- SHAILY (Gave opp. on friday, undergoing mini pullback) etc.

Is the Market Offering an Opportunity to Go Long?

Everything seems to indicate that this is the beginning of an extended bullrun till the elections. What is the game plan? Personally, I am all in. First time since 2020, that I have a net zero cash position.

We ready for another bullrun, my fellow Grapeviners? 🚀

Product Manager

Thesis: Someone has made a massive long position in the markets which must've triggered several sell orders after a gap up opening in the markets. I have purchased some calls for the next expiry now. Let's see how it pans out.

What do the rest of you think? What is up with the markets because I am in deep green over the last couple of weeks.

🐋 alert: Someone made a major long position. Is this the smart money entering the markets?

Below i have given links to my last few posts go through them to understand what i have done in the last 20 odd days. 

I was mentioning it from the month of Feb that Banks, FMCG , Metal are the sector where Risk : Reward lies in the market. 
Check it here - 
1. https://share.gvine.app/GiMiy13zbhGLgrT97

I did give out stocks i am going behind for this cycle. Check it here -
2. https://share.gvine.app/cpfpbGgLVp441B2D8

I did go long in Bank Nifty FUT around 47100 
Check it here - 
3. https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5

I built my positions in Jindal S , Tata S , COLPAL, ABB , SIEMENS , ICICI B , BANK NIFTY FUT , Nifty FUT and SBI.

From my entry point :-

Jindal - +14.51% (Entered at 805)
ABB -  +14.35% ( Entered at 5880)
COLPAL - +3.45% (Entered 2650)
SIEMENS -  +15.75% (Entered at 4880)
ICICI B -  +1% (Avg price is 1070)
TATA S -  +16% (Well i am holding Tata S from 115 levels i picked it up on 25 July 23. But i have entered again as a new trade around 140 on Feb 24 ) 


BANK NIFTY FUT - Long at 47100, till now have captured 1550 points. Picked up 2 Lots

Nifty Fut - Picked up 1 Lot at 22,220, captured 300 Points

Go through the links, i have mentioned above, i have updated everything here in real time. I did not explicitly post for each trade for that i will have to post on a daily basis. But i did mention where i am looking and where the opportunities lie with RISK : REWARD. Again risk : reward is of utmost importance for me.

I don't like to talk about numbers but i will do it this time to show you that simple things work very well in the market. 

From 18th March -
NIFTY 500 -  +4.5 %
Bank Nifty -  +3.72%
Nifty -  +2.05% 

My portfolio is up 8.72%. 

I have outperformed every benchmark index by a margin. And this outperformance will continue because i have gone behind the leaders of this upleg. Now i expect all of these stocks to pause a little and absorb the supply before moving ahead.

What next ? Check comment.

TRADING UPDATE : Sector Analysis, Trades, Outperformance of my Portfolio

Currently Market is offering an excellent Risk : Reward. I know how hard it is right now to build positions, that is why i have a focused approach(Nifty 100 only). Whenever the market is going to give you Risk : Reward things are not going to be rosy.

I carry out 1 exercise on the weekend to check the market breadth when markets are falling. I couldn't post last weekend but i will try to post it this weekend. It immensely helps me in building a hypothesis.

In my post i mentioned that buying Opportunity currently exists in the market but Risk : Reward wise Banks, FMCG , Metals are an excellent bet at this stage. Also stocks from Nifty 100 are exhibiting strength wrt to Broader market .ie. Nifty 500, Nifty 750.

Check out here - 
https://share.gvine.app/df3TRVcpCV5VF81M7

I have gone behind Bank Nifty Fut today but with 50% of intended Scale in. I will scale up another 50% after some stability in Nifty.
I have gone behind Bank Nifty FUT and not options. The journey is not going to be smooth on the upside, momentum is missing so dabble into options only if you understand risk.

Now, I have started to build a newer position in a few counters but they are from the Nifty 100 list only. For the time being Nifty 100 is my only universe. I am tracking stocks from small cap, mid cap space as well but i wont buy anything unless those indices become stable.

ABB, HAVELLS, COLPAL , ICICPRULI , JINDAL S, TATA S. Except Havells all of them have given an entry opportunity and Risk : Reward is great.

TATA M, M&M, DLF are eg of stocks that will offer opportunity. In one of my posts I mentioned that i want to go behind M&M but risk : reward is skewed. Now i might get an opportunity. Out of Auto, Realty i will just go behind 1 Stock.

Global and US markets are stable. Let's see what we do. I have my Stop losses in place, if things start going south, i will simply cut out.

APAR IND - SWING/POSITIONAL TRADE SETUP & SOME MARKET COMMENTARY

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