BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET ?

This was my last post where i mentioned that Nifty 100 is the way to go ahead if one wants to build newer positions. https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5 Stocks like ABB, SIEMENS, PIDILITE , COLPAL, MARUTI, LT, JINDAL S, TATA M , SUNPHARMA are few names that have offered Entry opportunities. When i am getting a good Risk : Reward, i buy whatever i wanna buy in 1 time scale in. Out of the above list SIEMENS, ABB, MARUTI, COLPAL started moving before the indices. Generally these stocks are the leaders of the next upleg . Such stocks need to be tracked closely, they will offer plenty of opportunity to those who missed it. More often than not they will outperform the market. Don't chase any stock that is flying eg. Maruti, ABB wait for Risk : Reward to come in your favour. If it gives a mini pullback, get in, if not then let it fly. Look for another opportunity. I have also built positions in Nifty Future at 22,220 today. In my last post i updated about entering Nifty Bank, that trade is still on and i have captured 700 odd points, Let's see what happens in days to come. Pullback got confirmed today in Nifty. It broke out of the high volume node range, valid pullback ended , it kept bouncing above multiple AWAP levels (forgot to add that in the photo). This was a confluence of data points for me. Getting in the market at the right time is very crucial. If one gets it right, the journey ahead for the next upleg is relatively easy. The market will shakeout late participants, if you get it right, you get a lot of cushion to work with and you wont be shaken out of the market that easily. We are moving up in the medium term. If i see anything changing or i cut my positions, i will update here. Bank nifty and nifty is a deadly combo, i hope Bank Nifty keeps chipping in on regular intervals. Happy Trading :)

The broad trajectory of the market is going to be up with volatility. Some adjustments need to be made to the trading style. https://share.gvine.app/yXc9GETSiWn8c2Uz8 In this post i had stated that ICICI is setting up for the move. I entered 50% last week, and i have fully scaled-in this week. There are 2 themes in the market right now. The one that has momentum for eg, Nifty Oil and Gas, Energy , PSU, AUTO. These sectors have underlying momentum but risk reward is not great, these can exhibit crazy movements but volatility can kill your trade. Other themes are Bank Nifty, FMCG, CONSUMPTION , METAL.Risk reward exits here. These sectors are under performing and undervalued in the current market context. From here on i am only going to build new positions in these sectors. For eg in Bank i have built positions in SBI, ICICI, now Axis if it sets up. SBI is taking its sweet time, consolidation is healthy. I want to build another 200 quantities so i am buying 20 25 stocks daily to take advantage of the volatility. It will set up again and move up. Let's see how things progress.

Check comment for update on silver & next sectors. A lot of things have happened since my last update. I was caught in election volatility & booked out 50% of my positions. I was hoping for further slippages in the market, but prices started recovering the next day & eventually, I built everything back in the next 2 days. Currently from last week i have started booking out profits from my positional trades. 1 day before the election my portfolio for this FY was up around 26% & due to election volatility it came down to about 9 %. It is back again to the previous levels, a bit above. I wont sell my top 2 stocks but i am booking out the rest gradually. Now the rationale behind locking profit is that, in the last month, the portfolio fluctuated from 26 - 9 - 29. If markets go into trouble, I don't want to give back 20% twice to the market in 1 month. If I have 100 shares, I book out 5-10 every day, so that I can get a good average if the price keeps moving up. I have already booked 50% of my total positions. This process is called BOOKING OUT ON STRENGTH. I am taking advantage of the parabolic move. Us markets are currently thinning out & a handful of stocks are taking it higher, soon our market will experience the same. As of now there are no triggers in our market. But it just takes 1 session for the sentiment to change. Now, I cannot let my money sit idle in my account, that would be foolish for a trader. What I am doing is getting into sector ETFs of Banks, It , Auto. ETFs are less volatile, if the market is going to move 5-7% more from here until Budget, my returns will be in tune with the market. I am fine if I don't outperform the market for the next 5-7%. After budget i will reasses the situation and will get back again into equities. It is also a good feeling to book out & bring that money home. Whenever opportunities arise in subsequent quarters I can hit it hard & go full throttle since I have a good cushion.

A few months ago I wrote about how i caught 100% + returns in the Counter - Inox wind. It has set up again. Here is the link to the Inox wind post. https://share.gvine.app/sugCF7MjAeSSFkvh6 Accumulation has been happening in Inox Wind for the last 6 months, and now it has started to move up with a wide-range upthrust bullish candle and a rise in volume. I wrote in my post that it would absorb all the selling and then move up again. This is a new entry opportunity, and I have doubled my quantity from the last time. This is how we can catch multi baggers by increasing the quantity every time it sets up. I have converted my trading position into an investment now, and I will start reading about the company, and start getting involved beyond charts. This is one example of technicals and fundamentals that can be combined. Even though this is an investment for me, I have a stop loss level ,nothing in the market I do without a stop loss. Here is a link to my last Post. https://share.gvine.app/nFW8z2BvpgCpejMWA I had updated here that I am 65-70% cash and will be deploying money only into sector ETFs like Auto, PSE, CPSE, Midcap 150 and would wait for stability to return for equities. Now Nifty has given an opportunity to go long on Friday. Whatever happened in the last 15 days was a pullback as of today. I have started to build positions in equities now. A lot of things are happening currently in the global scenario, from wars, rate cuts, to US elections. We could be prone to a lot of pullbacks and shakeouts. One should not expect short-term profit kinds of trades to work out. It is entirely possible that we could break the recent low of 23,900 on Nifty, and another down leg can follow. What would I do? I will simply follow my risk management rules and will get out if 23,900 breaks on Nifty and will wait for another opportunity to arise. Sectors where i am keen to build positions are - Nifty Consumption , Nifty service sector ,Nifty Large mid 250. Generally, I scale positions in two ways: one time scale-in or 50-50% after each confirmation. The market currently is not conducive for a one-time scale-in. I will explain this with a recent example. I got into ICICIGI on Friday around 2010. I entered this with the pullback framework that I follow. Initially I got in with 50% only, and after a mini pullback on the hourly TF, I entered again today around 2015, and now I am fully scaled in. I will cut 50% if it breaches 1990 with a wide-range bearish candle with volume expansion and will cut another 50% after the breach of 1930. As the price keeps going up, my stop losses will keep moving up. If the stock moves 7% or more, I’ll make my risk zero, meaning if it reverses from +7%, I will simply cut it out at cost. Why this aggressive approach? I screen 450-500 stocks and then make a watchlist of 30-40 names, and from there, I enter or scale into 10-12 names. I enter one of the strongest stocks in the market, and such stocks generally don't exhibit massive weakness. It is entirely possible that I would cut ICICIGI around 1950-60 and then stock might set up again in a few days, which has happened many times in the past. I would get back in again after confirmation. I am very nimble in building back positions if i am stopped out. I act quickly to get back in, but I am strict about not risking my capital. When I am wrong, I want to be wrong with the smallest of margins, and when I am right, I will just sit and hold, e.g., Inox Wind. Sister stock movement .i.e stocks from sector moving together, is happening in Insurance space. SBI LIFE , ICICIPRULI, ICICIGI are exhibiting strength. I will get into 2 stocks from these 3. Such a sister stock movement increases the probability of trade working in your favour a great deal. A few more names that are in my watchlist and i may enter them. - NAVKARCORP - SBI LIFE , ICICIPRULI (Today) - NAUKRI - RAMRATAN - GODFREYPHILIP (Gave opp yesterday) - ETHOS - SHAILY (Gave opp. on friday, undergoing mini pullback) etc.

I had explained in the last post the sectors i am going behind from here on. These were Banks, Metals and FMCG. Banks are resisting the fall even today & are broadly up. Check it here. https://share.gvine.app/GiMiy13zbhGLgrT97 SBI,ICICI,AXIS are the top stocks in the banking sector & they are doing okay, well above buy price. From FMCG Nestle, VBL, TATA C are well above the buy price for now. From metals i have positions in Jindal & Tata S. I have cut out Jindal S today at 2% loss & i have Tata S from a much lower level so i am not worried. Apart from these i built positions in TVS Motor, Cipla, booked out a loss of around 1.5% -2% today. Cutting out stocks when things are not in your favour is also a skill and i have learned it the hard way. -2% can become -5% -10% very easily. For the last 1 month i have been writing that Risk : Reward exists in Bank, Metal and FMCG and stocks from these sectors have not fallen that much in the last week. Any chart pattern any strategy cannot be a traders edge, Risk management combining with Risk : Reward analysis & sector understanding is my biggest edge over 99% of market participants. Now, markets are getting thinner by each passing session. I will aggressively start cutting position if we breach 21850 in Nifty. I am now only managing newer positions (mentioned above). From the Large cap portfolio i built in Dec, i have a good cushion but i will start trimming if 21850 goes in Nifty. I will not touch my Top 4 holdings. I have Tata M, Tata C, LT , Can B , PNB , TATA S, Wipro from DEC. I have a different account for Small - mid cap & i have booked everything except 2 top massive winner stocks in the last 1 week. I will wait for stability to return to build newer positions. From now on whatever new position i build that is going to be from Nifty 100 index only. Per trade I risk 2% of my account size but from here on my risk will be capped at 0.5-0.75% of Account. Tip : Stay away from options for 1 Month.

Here is the link where i mentioned about the SBI trade, I am fully scaled in with avg Price of 638. https://share.gvine.app/sugCF7MjAeSSFkvh6 I have explained everything on the chart. Ideally the price should consolidate for a few more sessions, even fall some % points, before moving higher. If this is an aggressive trade SL can be around 5950 on a daily closing basis, mere violation is not enough. For Positional trade (12-18 Month) SL should be 5200. MARKET COMMENTARY :- For the last 2,3 weeks, i have been booking out profit and have raised 40% cash as the market was getting extended for my liking. But the market is not showing any signs of slowing down, Last week Nifty oil& Gas, yesterday Nifty IT, today Realty, metal. If Bank nifty starts to chip in we'll head a lot higher. Every other day 1 or another space is setting up apart from main indices. Eg. Broking/AMC companies (BSE, CDSL, Angelone, Tata investment) in the last 2,3 days. Our biases have 0 value until the chart confirms it, So i have bought Nifty FUT last week to up my exposure to 100% again. I am also inclined to take positions in stock like SBI, JSW STEEL, WIPRO, APAR IND etc Where i have RISK:REWARD in my favour. But newly built positions have to be monitored closely. I will not be scaling if things are over extended like for eg. TATA M, CANARA BANK, DLF etc. MARKET IS SUPREME. Don't miss out on the rally on basis of your biases.

Below i have given links to my last few posts go through them to understand what i have done in the last 20 odd days. I was mentioning it from the month of Feb that Banks, FMCG , Metal are the sector where Risk : Reward lies in the market. Check it here - 1. https://share.gvine.app/GiMiy13zbhGLgrT97 I did give out stocks i am going behind for this cycle. Check it here - 2. https://share.gvine.app/cpfpbGgLVp441B2D8 I did go long in Bank Nifty FUT around 47100 Check it here - 3. https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5 I built my positions in Jindal S , Tata S , COLPAL, ABB , SIEMENS , ICICI B , BANK NIFTY FUT , Nifty FUT and SBI. From my entry point :- Jindal - +14.51% (Entered at 805) ABB - +14.35% ( Entered at 5880) COLPAL - +3.45% (Entered 2650) SIEMENS - +15.75% (Entered at 4880) ICICI B - +1% (Avg price is 1070) TATA S - +16% (Well i am holding Tata S from 115 levels i picked it up on 25 July 23. But i have entered again as a new trade around 140 on Feb 24 ) BANK NIFTY FUT - Long at 47100, till now have captured 1550 points. Picked up 2 Lots Nifty Fut - Picked up 1 Lot at 22,220, captured 300 Points Go through the links, i have mentioned above, i have updated everything here in real time. I did not explicitly post for each trade for that i will have to post on a daily basis. But i did mention where i am looking and where the opportunities lie with RISK : REWARD. Again risk : reward is of utmost importance for me. I don't like to talk about numbers but i will do it this time to show you that simple things work very well in the market. From 18th March - NIFTY 500 - +4.5 % Bank Nifty - +3.72% Nifty - +2.05% My portfolio is up 8.72%. I have outperformed every benchmark index by a margin. And this outperformance will continue because i have gone behind the leaders of this upleg. Now i expect all of these stocks to pause a little and absorb the supply before moving ahead. What next ? Check comment.