Is the Market Offering an Opportunity to Go Long?

Check comment for update on silver & next sectors. A lot of things have happened since my last update. I was caught in election volatility & booked out 50% of my positions. I was hoping for further slippages in the market, but prices started recovering the next day & eventually, I built everything back in the next 2 days. Currently from last week i have started booking out profits from my positional trades. 1 day before the election my portfolio for this FY was up around 26% & due to election volatility it came down to about 9 %. It is back again to the previous levels, a bit above. I wont sell my top 2 stocks but i am booking out the rest gradually. Now the rationale behind locking profit is that, in the last month, the portfolio fluctuated from 26 - 9 - 29. If markets go into trouble, I don't want to give back 20% twice to the market in 1 month. If I have 100 shares, I book out 5-10 every day, so that I can get a good average if the price keeps moving up. I have already booked 50% of my total positions. This process is called BOOKING OUT ON STRENGTH. I am taking advantage of the parabolic move. Us markets are currently thinning out & a handful of stocks are taking it higher, soon our market will experience the same. As of now there are no triggers in our market. But it just takes 1 session for the sentiment to change. Now, I cannot let my money sit idle in my account, that would be foolish for a trader. What I am doing is getting into sector ETFs of Banks, It , Auto. ETFs are less volatile, if the market is going to move 5-7% more from here until Budget, my returns will be in tune with the market. I am fine if I don't outperform the market for the next 5-7%. After budget i will reasses the situation and will get back again into equities. It is also a good feeling to book out & bring that money home. Whenever opportunities arise in subsequent quarters I can hit it hard & go full throttle since I have a good cushion.

Here is the link - https://share.gvine.app/d85jqVYD85t9hqCSA I made that post on a whim. I added this here just to let you know that i have SKIN IN THE GAME. I know the ***t i am talking about and i am not going to be just blabbering. This is going to be a long read. India is at the cusp of doing something very special and there is an opportunity to make  massive wealth in the next 2 decades. I feel every working professional should look up to equities and get educated if possible.  If you have no idea of technicals, read this with an open mind, it might give you a new perspective. Technical analysis has a lot more to it than whatever you see normally on YT. Many fundamental guys say that technicals are mumbo jumbo and it doesn't work. I know someone with over 100 cr of trading account who has built his career using both. I also know someone(Not directly but through someone) with 3000 crore ++ total portfolio and he uses technicals as well. It does work in the market it's just that you should know how to use it. ---------------------------------------------- SBI has a very interesting Long term Structure developing. Here is how i am looking to go long in this Counter. [WEEKLY TIME FRAME]. If you see on the chart there are 2 trough points (curve marked in blue). First curve low point was at 500, 2nd curve low point was at 550. This is a volatility contraction. Volatility decreases, leading to smaller price swings. During 2nd price swing (B) look at the dip in volume when price moves lower. Supply is getting absorbed. The seller was not able to push the price lower and the stock bounced back again. Contraction gets smaller and smaller, sellers are losing control. (There is so much to explain about VCP but i will have to deviate from the topic. I cannot emphasize enough how much money i have made trading this VCP and combining it with other filters . Look into it.) cont. REST OF THE ANALYSIS IS IN THE COMMENT SECTION.

This was my last post where i mentioned that Nifty 100 is the way to go ahead if one wants to build newer positions. https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5 Stocks like ABB, SIEMENS, PIDILITE , COLPAL, MARUTI, LT, JINDAL S, TATA M , SUNPHARMA are few names that have offered Entry opportunities. When i am getting a good Risk : Reward, i buy whatever i wanna buy in 1 time scale in. Out of the above list SIEMENS, ABB, MARUTI, COLPAL started moving before the indices. Generally these stocks are the leaders of the next upleg . Such stocks need to be tracked closely, they will offer plenty of opportunity to those who missed it. More often than not they will outperform the market. Don't chase any stock that is flying eg. Maruti, ABB wait for Risk : Reward to come in your favour. If it gives a mini pullback, get in, if not then let it fly. Look for another opportunity. I have also built positions in Nifty Future at 22,220 today. In my last post i updated about entering Nifty Bank, that trade is still on and i have captured 700 odd points, Let's see what happens in days to come. Pullback got confirmed today in Nifty. It broke out of the high volume node range, valid pullback ended , it kept bouncing above multiple AWAP levels (forgot to add that in the photo). This was a confluence of data points for me. Getting in the market at the right time is very crucial. If one gets it right, the journey ahead for the next upleg is relatively easy. The market will shakeout late participants, if you get it right, you get a lot of cushion to work with and you wont be shaken out of the market that easily. We are moving up in the medium term. If i see anything changing or i cut my positions, i will update here. Bank nifty and nifty is a deadly combo, i hope Bank Nifty keeps chipping in on regular intervals. Happy Trading :)

The broad trajectory of the market is going to be up with volatility. Some adjustments need to be made to the trading style. https://share.gvine.app/yXc9GETSiWn8c2Uz8 In this post i had stated that ICICI is setting up for the move. I entered 50% last week, and i have fully scaled-in this week. There are 2 themes in the market right now. The one that has momentum for eg, Nifty Oil and Gas, Energy , PSU, AUTO. These sectors have underlying momentum but risk reward is not great, these can exhibit crazy movements but volatility can kill your trade. Other themes are Bank Nifty, FMCG, CONSUMPTION , METAL.Risk reward exits here. These sectors are under performing and undervalued in the current market context. From here on i am only going to build new positions in these sectors. For eg in Bank i have built positions in SBI, ICICI, now Axis if it sets up. SBI is taking its sweet time, consolidation is healthy. I want to build another 200 quantities so i am buying 20 25 stocks daily to take advantage of the volatility. It will set up again and move up. Let's see how things progress.

Market has been expensive of late. Which companies are you most bullish on in 5-7 years (Thought process - Might be expensive today but conviction of at least 3x from here in 5-7 years).

Link to my 1st Post where i discussed about SBI. https://share.gvine.app/yYujDrw15CLsLxC59 I have scaled in 70% in SBI. (Avg 635). Bank Nifty is struggling but this is the Risk Reward kind of trade for me. I just took 1 trade in Small cap space last week GICRE  with Average buy price of 360. I will make a detailed post after it gives me more than 50% return or if i book out. In my next post i will bust a few myths/misconceptions related to trading and one of them might be holding you back from venturing into this field. At the end of the post i have given 5 stock e.g. check them out as well. --------------------------------------------- Why i selected Inox wind for the post not every stock in my small-mid cap portfolio is up over 100%. I wanted to show yall that capturing such a move is totally possible. You need not to have in-depth knowledge of fundamentals like margins, M3 money, Nifty PE, unemployment rate etc or business understanding in depth. With all due respect there is a reason why 99% of economists don't make massive wealth out of the market. Having a knowledge of these things is 1 skill & generating wealth out of the market is a completely different skill. I am trying to master the 2nd one so if you are an average person like me,Read ahead. It's not like I don't look at these fundamentals data points. You can have 1000 data points but you need just a few actionable ones. There is a thin line between analysis and analysis Paralysis. Most people get stuck in this paralysis. Sometimes i decide how much exposure i need to have depending on the dollar index sometimes depending on what crude oil is doing. But I don't over-complicate it too much. When to look at what data point we will get it with experience. I am still in the learning phase. Growth lies in small mid cap space and capturing such moves at the right time through just fundamentals is a stretch. That's where technicals come in for me. I can capture such moves. CHECK OUT THE COMMENT --

Everything seems to indicate that this is the beginning of an extended bullrun till the elections. What is the game plan? Personally, I am all in. First time since 2020, that I have a net zero cash position.

Below i have given links to my last few posts go through them to understand what i have done in the last 20 odd days. I was mentioning it from the month of Feb that Banks, FMCG , Metal are the sector where Risk : Reward lies in the market. Check it here - 1. https://share.gvine.app/GiMiy13zbhGLgrT97 I did give out stocks i am going behind for this cycle. Check it here - 2. https://share.gvine.app/cpfpbGgLVp441B2D8 I did go long in Bank Nifty FUT around 47100 Check it here - 3. https://share.gvine.app/8aJtMzoHxdWv7hPv5 I built my positions in Jindal S , Tata S , COLPAL, ABB , SIEMENS , ICICI B , BANK NIFTY FUT , Nifty FUT and SBI. From my entry point :- Jindal - +14.51% (Entered at 805) ABB - +14.35% ( Entered at 5880) COLPAL - +3.45% (Entered 2650) SIEMENS - +15.75% (Entered at 4880) ICICI B - +1% (Avg price is 1070) TATA S - +16% (Well i am holding Tata S from 115 levels i picked it up on 25 July 23. But i have entered again as a new trade around 140 on Feb 24 ) BANK NIFTY FUT - Long at 47100, till now have captured 1550 points. Picked up 2 Lots Nifty Fut - Picked up 1 Lot at 22,220, captured 300 Points Go through the links, i have mentioned above, i have updated everything here in real time. I did not explicitly post for each trade for that i will have to post on a daily basis. But i did mention where i am looking and where the opportunities lie with RISK : REWARD. Again risk : reward is of utmost importance for me. I don't like to talk about numbers but i will do it this time to show you that simple things work very well in the market. From 18th March - NIFTY 500 - +4.5 % Bank Nifty - +3.72% Nifty - +2.05% My portfolio is up 8.72%. I have outperformed every benchmark index by a margin. And this outperformance will continue because i have gone behind the leaders of this upleg. Now i expect all of these stocks to pause a little and absorb the supply before moving ahead. What next ? Check comment.

I had explained in the last post the sectors i am going behind from here on. These were Banks, Metals and FMCG. Banks are resisting the fall even today & are broadly up. Check it here. https://share.gvine.app/GiMiy13zbhGLgrT97 SBI,ICICI,AXIS are the top stocks in the banking sector & they are doing okay, well above buy price. From FMCG Nestle, VBL, TATA C are well above the buy price for now. From metals i have positions in Jindal & Tata S. I have cut out Jindal S today at 2% loss & i have Tata S from a much lower level so i am not worried. Apart from these i built positions in TVS Motor, Cipla, booked out a loss of around 1.5% -2% today. Cutting out stocks when things are not in your favour is also a skill and i have learned it the hard way. -2% can become -5% -10% very easily. For the last 1 month i have been writing that Risk : Reward exists in Bank, Metal and FMCG and stocks from these sectors have not fallen that much in the last week. Any chart pattern any strategy cannot be a traders edge, Risk management combining with Risk : Reward analysis & sector understanding is my biggest edge over 99% of market participants. Now, markets are getting thinner by each passing session. I will aggressively start cutting position if we breach 21850 in Nifty. I am now only managing newer positions (mentioned above). From the Large cap portfolio i built in Dec, i have a good cushion but i will start trimming if 21850 goes in Nifty. I will not touch my Top 4 holdings. I have Tata M, Tata C, LT , Can B , PNB , TATA S, Wipro from DEC. I have a different account for Small - mid cap & i have booked everything except 2 top massive winner stocks in the last 1 week. I will wait for stability to return to build newer positions. From now on whatever new position i build that is going to be from Nifty 100 index only. Per trade I risk 2% of my account size but from here on my risk will be capped at 0.5-0.75% of Account. Tip : Stay away from options for 1 Month.