[Analysis] What do you think about market efficiency versus seeking alpha in trading?
Have been analyzing the Broader US markets for the last couple of weeks. Efficient Market Hypothesis seems to suggest that the prices of financial instruments reflect all available market information. Hence, investors cannot have an meaningful edge by analysing the stocks and adopting different market timing strategies. The VIX expresses the inherent volatility of the market and is a real time index that derives expected volatility in the index by averaging the weighted prices of out of the money put and call options. The value of the VIX increases when the markets are falling, this also indicates an increase in the expectation of upcoming volatility and the investor’s fear in the markets. Also to be noted that the index value cools off when the markets respond positively and advance. The volatility declines and investor fear declines. However, there have always existed market inefficiencies that can be exploited to make money and I'm just wondering if anyone has done something similar? My current modelling seems to suggest that there is some minor alpha that is available when you trade on VIX data. It is just had to gauge the directionality of the movement. Usually, a net 5% movement in 2 trading days is significant enough to take a position.
Dezi Hyrum
Student
a year ago
Kendall Carmden
Stealth
a year ago
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