Indians are panicking & removing holding as if we had gone to war. Such folks should never invest.

Engineering manager

How are the middle east tensions related to FII outflows from India to China?

Internal Audit

Software Engineer

Deepening Middle East conflict triggers worst session for Indian shares in two months.  Nifty 50 index and S&P BSE Sensex both drop over 2%, marking worst performance since early August.  Rising oi...

Welcome to News Discussion's Private Community

- Deepening Middle East conflict triggers worst session for Indian shares in two months.
- Nifty 50 index and S&P BSE Sensex both drop over 2%, marking worst performance since early August.
- Rising oil prices impact domestic paintmakers, tyre-makers, and oil refiners.
- Potential foreign outflows from India to China add pressure on domestic equities.
- Only two of the Nifty 50 constituents settle higher, with all 13 major sectoral indexes declining.

Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-shares-set-open-lower-tracking-asian-peers-2024-10-03/)

Deepening Mideast Conflict Triggers Worst Indian Shares Session in 2 Months

Journalist

Deepening Mideast Conflict Triggers Worst Indian Shares Session in 2 Months- Grapevine

- Equity benchmark indices declined after hitting fresh record highs, with Sensex dropping over 900 points, dragged by M&M and IT stocks.
- Sensex hit a new all-time high of 80,481.36 during opening trade but tumbled 915.88 points to 79,435.76 by late morning.
- Nifty also hit a fresh lifetime high but slumped all gains, declining 291.4 points to 24,141.80.
- Major laggards included Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, TCS, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and State Bank of India.
- Factors behind the fall include Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on rate cuts, across-the-board sell-offs, and technical market challenges.

Why Are Stock Markets Falling Today? Sensex Tanks Over 900 Points

- Stock markets tumbled on Monday, with Japanese shares at one point exceeding their 1987 'Black Monday' loss, as fears of a U.S. recession sent investors fleeing from risk.
- The safe haven yen and Swiss franc surged, as crowded carry trades unravelled, sparking speculation that some investors were unloading profitable trades to cover losses elsewhere.
- Japan's benchmark Nikkei average closed 12.40% lower, its largest one-day fall since October 1987, while European shares fell to near six-month lows amid a global selloff in equities.
- A weak July payrolls report saw markets price in a high chance of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with futures implying significant cuts in the funds rate this year.
- Investors are seeking safe harbours, with the dollar falling against major currencies and gold losing some of its appeal, while oil prices eased on concerns about global energy demand. 

 Source: https://reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-08-04/

Stocks Plunge: Nikkei Down 13%, European Shares Near Six-Month Lows

Welcome to Personal Finance's Private Community

This is a piece from Business Standard. 

Growth in Profit this quarter is the slowest in the last  3 Years for Early bird 200+ companies.

This either can be an anomaly or we need to show good numbers in subsequent quarters.

PE Expansion has happened, Price has run up a lot Now Earnings has to catch up.

This has got nothing to do with the short term. But this surely can determine what can happen in the next 12-18 months.

If growth remains declining, stock prices will start appearing expensive which will lead to lower demand in the market.

Very important 2,3 quarters ahead.

INTRESTING READ - GROWTH DECLINING ?

Machine Learning Engineer

- India's Nifty 50 index rose to record highs on Monday, driven by strong performance in the IT sector.
- The NSE Nifty 50 climbed 0.4% to a record high of 24,598, while the S&P BSE Sensex added 0.2% to 80,654 points.
- Strong buying in IT stocks, particularly after TCS's positive results, provided a significant boost to the market.
- HCLTech saw a 3.5% rise in shares after reporting increased revenue and growth projections for the ongoing quarter.
- Indian IT companies have benefited from expectations of a U.S. rate cut, with the odds of a 25 basis point cut rising to 90%. 

 Source: Reuters

IT Stocks Lead Rise in India's Nifty 50 to Record Highs

Both indexes began diverging sometime close to when Fed started to aggressively hike rates. It appears that the post-COVID rally was more favourable to the S&P but NIFTY is currently outperforming on absolute returns.

My idea is fundamentally simple. Financial prudence during the raging recovery paid off for us, the economy appears resilient and poised to do well in the near to mid-term. It also reflects that markets are pricing recessionary risk very differently to both markets.

Any ideas by others?

[Thread] Why is the Indian Public Market outperforming the US Public Market?

Product Manager

Layoff Sadness Intensifies

Iranian government is preparing to strike Israel knowing how ruthless the response can be. With big brother US telling it in open to protect ‘Israel’, I don’t know why Iran is committing this grave mistake. US needs a reason to strike Iran and getting it served in a plate. 

India would be impacted as crude will jump leading to more $ outflows.

Iran going the Hamas way?🤔

- **Auto retail sales** in India dropped **9% YoY** in September due to **sluggish demand**.
- **Passenger vehicle sales** fell **19% YoY** to **2,75,681 units**.
- **Two-wheeler sales** declined **8% YoY** to **12,04,259 units**.
- **Commercial vehicle registrations** decreased **10% YoY** to **74,324 units**.
- **Tractor sales** rose **15% YoY** to **74,324 units**, while **three-wheeler sales** saw a slight increase.

Source: [Zee News](https://zeenews.india.com/auto/auto-retail-sales-drop-9-pv-inventory-rockets-to-record-high-2804066.html), [The Times Of India](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/auto-retail-sales-skid-9-in-sept-on-sluggish-demand/articleshow/114026457.cms)

India's Auto Sales Plummet Amid Festive Season

- Too high valuations
- Middle East Tension
- Signs of slight weakness in US economy
- Fed lowering interest rate (powitive)

What is your understanding of Nifty performance in next 2-3 quarters.

Sales Leader

I think we are heading up. I can't see any sector that can pull the market down. We are in an uptrend and unless 21200 breaks on Nifty, we will remain in uptrend. Global cues are fine as well. The US market is undergoing a pullback and it should be contained around 4-6%.

Coming back to our indices. 
Oil, Energy , PSU remains the strongest.
Metals, IT are in good structure.
Realty, Infra are also doing the right thing.
Auto remains the consistent outperformer First Maruti and yesterday M&M broke out.

The problem area was Nifty Bank and it has started to do the right thing. SBI cannot lead NB higher HDFC, Kotak needs to chip in now. NB is a Beast. If it starts finding its feet, a much higher level will come for Nifty.

I have been booking profit for the last 2,3 weeks and have raised 40% cash. Now i have started deploying it. I have picked up 5 names from this list.
 https://share.gvine.app/Hn9vxKmr86PkqJmx5

I have a few other stocks on my radar. I want to build new positions for eg.in M&M. But i will wait it out. I am not going to chase any kind of breakout. I want a pullback that will shake a lot of people and then I will get in. If stocks want to just fly, I'll let it fly, I won't chase anything. I want odds on my money at this stage.

I also picked up Nifty Futures yesterday, a lot of people will find it difficult to build newer positions atm as the market is stretched and rightly so, it is stretched. But the best of the rally happens in the stretched Market. 

I don't mind if i am wrong. I have my stop losses and risk management rules to protect me. I follow a certain process and i will keep following it.

Lets go to the moooon 🚀🚀

NIFTY IS HEADING UP !! 🚀🚀

Welcome to Indian Startups's Private Community

As we bid farewell to the challenges of the past, let's delve into why 2024 is poised to be a game-changer for the Indian Startups! 🚀

In 2020, the world weathered the storm of COVID, followed by unprecedented quantitative easing. We then saw that in 2021 the bull run came soaring. Investors, fueled by the appetite for riskier assets led to a funding boom for startups as salaries soared.

Fast forward to 2022, and the music is about to stop. The realization that the Fed would hike rates to curb inflation means that funding is about to dry up as big money will be invested away into debt/T-Bills. Though demand remained robust, the stock market felt the impact as JPow raised the interest rates. 

Late 2022 and 2023 saw the tech landscape experiencing layoffs, and startups facing significant headwinds. It’s a wonder  if anyone raised this year.

But here's the twist—2024 looks brighter. The stock markets have rebounded to all-time highs, signaling that things may be on the rise. Despite geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iraq, the macro outlook for India shines bright. 

For Indian Startups? VC Funding is still here to stay. So keep your heads down and keep building. From what I am hearing, it is set to make a roaring comeback. There is now significant rationality in the funding ecosystem leading to realistic valuations.

However, this revival will come with a plot twist. Newer companies, fueled by fresh funding, are set to rise, while most of the lofty valuations of those who raised in 2021 are about to crash and burn.

So buckle up folks. Let’s see where it takes us.

What do you think? 🤔

[Thread] Why 2024 is going to be a massive hit for the ecosystem?

Are we buying more or getting out before it goes bust?

[NIFTY50] Is this the end?

Looks like INR is heading for a sharp depreciation against USD
Any thoughts..?

USD/INR

Oh man :(

Corporate Strategist

- The Indian government has increased the tax rate on equity derivatives trades and capital gains from equity investments, effective immediately for some changes and from October for others.
- Taxes on stocks held for less than one year have been raised to 20% from 15%, and for those held over one year to 12.5% from 10%, which may hurt short-term market sentiment but incentivize long-term investment.
- The securities transaction tax on futures has been nearly doubled to 0.02% from 0.0125%, and on options to 0.1% from 0.0625%, causing a temporary dip in major stock indexes.
- Fund managers believe the tax changes will bring rationality to options trading and encourage better investment behavior, despite being a short-term negative for the market.
- Additional tax adjustments include reduced taxes on listed bonds and unlisted shares held by foreign companies, and changes to the taxation of company share buybacks. 

 Source: Reuters

India Hikes Taxes on Equity Investments; Fund Managers See Short-Term Hit

The broad trajectory of the market is going to be up with volatility. Some adjustments need to be made to the trading style.

https://share.gvine.app/yXc9GETSiWn8c2Uz8

In this post i had stated that ICICI is setting up for the move. I entered 50% last week, and i have fully scaled-in this week.

There are 2 themes in the market right now. The one that has momentum for eg, Nifty Oil and Gas, Energy , PSU, AUTO. These sectors have underlying momentum but risk reward is not great, these can exhibit crazy movements but volatility can kill your trade.


Other themes are Bank Nifty, FMCG, CONSUMPTION , METAL.Risk reward exits here. These sectors are under performing and undervalued in the current market context. From here on i am only going to build new positions  in these sectors. For eg in Bank i have built positions in SBI, ICICI, now Axis if it sets up.


SBI is taking its sweet time, consolidation is healthy. I want to build another 200 quantities so i am buying 20 25 stocks daily to take advantage of the volatility. It will set up again and move up.

Let's see how things progress.

WHAT CAN TAKE NIFTY HIGHER FROM HERE WITH RISK REWARD?

Here is the post where i mentioned about 3 live trades.

https://share.gvine.app/pUjNH4n7qnU3kYgM9

SBI - I have added more of SBI at 732 today. If i had 500 quantities, I have added 250 more.

GENERAL INSURANCE - IT went up 25% and gave back all the gains. I am still holding, a good amount of shakeout has happened.

APAR IND - Nice bit of shakeout here as well just around buy price lets see. Still holding. 

New positions i am currently building in -

SBI - Added Today
RELIANCE - Added Today
COAL INDIA- Added Yesterday
GAIL - 33% today
BPCL - 33% Today
HINDPETRO -33% Today
J&K BANK
OIL INDIA
Angel one
NIACL
KARURVYASA B
UFO MOVIES INDIA

For some stock i am using 1 time scale in SBI, Reliance,Coal India. For the names which are stretched i am using a pyramiding approach .ie. 33% in 3 rounds. If the market reverses these stretched names will fall a lot so I don't want to take a lot of risk. 

I will keep buying until Nifty is above 50 DMA. The moment i see it slipping below it, I will stop buying. 

Its good sign that Nifty Bank is stabilising and trying to move up. 

Also the current sector leader .i.e Oil and Gas, Energy, PSU, PSE are recovering well after a fall.

SWING TRADING UPDATE - NEW WATCHLIST

Today market is up by 804+ points, just because Modi is winning!! ☺️☺️🤴🫶.

Deepening Mideast Conflict Triggers Worst Indian Shares Session in 2 Months

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