looks like Untill there is a negative news, There will be no fall.

Consultant

Why is it not falling despite middle east tension :p

Sales Leader

Founder

Founder’s office

Software Engineer

Too high valuations  Middle East Tension  Signs of slight weakness in US economy  Fed lowering interest rate (powitive)

Welcome to Personal Finance's Private Community

- Too high valuations
- Middle East Tension
- Signs of slight weakness in US economy
- Fed lowering interest rate (powitive)

What is your understanding of Nifty performance in next 2-3 quarters.

What is your understanding of Nifty performance in next 2-3 quarters.- Grapevine

Have a couple of lakhs to invest lump sump in some stock. What are your picks and rationale behind that?

PS: Have some MFs as well but don't want to go there right now. Need some good stock ideas for long term (hence no large caps). I prefer those who have decent business prospects but even more important is the price they're available at.

Stock ideas to invest?

Software Developer

This is a piece from Business Standard. 

Growth in Profit this quarter is the slowest in the last  3 Years for Early bird 200+ companies.

This either can be an anomaly or we need to show good numbers in subsequent quarters.

PE Expansion has happened, Price has run up a lot Now Earnings has to catch up.

This has got nothing to do with the short term. But this surely can determine what can happen in the next 12-18 months.

If growth remains declining, stock prices will start appearing expensive which will lead to lower demand in the market.

Very important 2,3 quarters ahead.

INTRESTING READ - GROWTH DECLINING ?

Machine Learning Engineer

Loving how 2024 is looking actually. Getting rid of my cash position and all in on equity. Plus, locking in the good interest rates FDs. Not seeing lucrative returns on FDs till the next quantitative tightening now. 

Godspeed! Time to make some 💰

India's Nifty 50 and Sensex are on course to log the longest joint weekly winning streak in nearly six years

Powell's rate remarks a 'Christmas gift to global markets' - Jefferies' Chris Wood

What do we think? JPow with the rate cuts is going to get us some nice returns hopefully 🤞

Product Manager

Goldman Sachs has predicted dual digit growth for Indian top indices for next FY. Reasons are like...

1. Strong fundamentals
2. Stability at government level
3. Fed rate cut
4. Banks, auto and industrial firms doing exceedingly well.
5. Cyclical growth after usa and India elections
6. Dollar depreciation
7. Lower cad at 1.3%
8. GDP growth at 7+%

What do u think guys?

Markets will again beat FD???

Nifty & Sensex to grow in dual digit next FY.

Senior Consultant

I think we are heading up. I can't see any sector that can pull the market down. We are in an uptrend and unless 21200 breaks on Nifty, we will remain in uptrend. Global cues are fine as well. The US market is undergoing a pullback and it should be contained around 4-6%.

Coming back to our indices. 
Oil, Energy , PSU remains the strongest.
Metals, IT are in good structure.
Realty, Infra are also doing the right thing.
Auto remains the consistent outperformer First Maruti and yesterday M&M broke out.

The problem area was Nifty Bank and it has started to do the right thing. SBI cannot lead NB higher HDFC, Kotak needs to chip in now. NB is a Beast. If it starts finding its feet, a much higher level will come for Nifty.

I have been booking profit for the last 2,3 weeks and have raised 40% cash. Now i have started deploying it. I have picked up 5 names from this list.
 https://share.gvine.app/Hn9vxKmr86PkqJmx5

I have a few other stocks on my radar. I want to build new positions for eg.in M&M. But i will wait it out. I am not going to chase any kind of breakout. I want a pullback that will shake a lot of people and then I will get in. If stocks want to just fly, I'll let it fly, I won't chase anything. I want odds on my money at this stage.

I also picked up Nifty Futures yesterday, a lot of people will find it difficult to build newer positions atm as the market is stretched and rightly so, it is stretched. But the best of the rally happens in the stretched Market. 

I don't mind if i am wrong. I have my stop losses and risk management rules to protect me. I follow a certain process and i will keep following it.

Lets go to the moooon 🚀🚀

NIFTY IS HEADING UP !! 🚀🚀

Are we buying more or getting out before it goes bust?

[NIFTY50] Is this the end?

1. Is this a forward looking indicator for job creation in upcoming quarters?
2. What are your portfolios looking like? 
3. Selling/Holding/Buying now?

FINALLY!! Nifty50 is at an All Time High!!! 🚀

Both indexes began diverging sometime close to when Fed started to aggressively hike rates. It appears that the post-COVID rally was more favourable to the S&P but NIFTY is currently outperforming on absolute returns.

My idea is fundamentally simple. Financial prudence during the raging recovery paid off for us, the economy appears resilient and poised to do well in the near to mid-term. It also reflects that markets are pricing recessionary risk very differently to both markets.

Any ideas by others?

[Thread] Why is the Indian Public Market outperforming the US Public Market?

Welcome to News Discussion's Private Community

No one has expected to see such graphs in these two days.

I want to understand what's out there for us?
And what are your thoughts on the Indian Stock market.??

Best time to Average your portfolio????

Everything seems to indicate that this is the beginning of an extended bullrun till the elections. What is the game plan? Personally, I am all in. First time since 2020, that I have a net zero cash position.

We ready for another bullrun, my fellow Grapeviners? 🚀

Here is the post where i mentioned about 3 live trades.

https://share.gvine.app/pUjNH4n7qnU3kYgM9

SBI - I have added more of SBI at 732 today. If i had 500 quantities, I have added 250 more.

GENERAL INSURANCE - IT went up 25% and gave back all the gains. I am still holding, a good amount of shakeout has happened.

APAR IND - Nice bit of shakeout here as well just around buy price lets see. Still holding. 

New positions i am currently building in -

SBI - Added Today
RELIANCE - Added Today
COAL INDIA- Added Yesterday
GAIL - 33% today
BPCL - 33% Today
HINDPETRO -33% Today
J&K BANK
OIL INDIA
Angel one
NIACL
KARURVYASA B
UFO MOVIES INDIA

For some stock i am using 1 time scale in SBI, Reliance,Coal India. For the names which are stretched i am using a pyramiding approach .ie. 33% in 3 rounds. If the market reverses these stretched names will fall a lot so I don't want to take a lot of risk. 

I will keep buying until Nifty is above 50 DMA. The moment i see it slipping below it, I will stop buying. 

Its good sign that Nifty Bank is stabilising and trying to move up. 

Also the current sector leader .i.e Oil and Gas, Energy, PSU, PSE are recovering well after a fall.

SWING TRADING UPDATE - NEW WATCHLIST

Will history respect itself?

Layoff Sadness Intensifies

There are rumours that fresh rounds of layoffs were to happen in next two weeks. Here is my take on the layoff spree.

High inflation, low jobs, less on spending, economic meltdown for IT employees, impact on IT cities like Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Mumbai, Chennai. 

Less spending on equity, mutual funds, real estate(premium villas, apartments). Chances of housing loan defaults, NPA on raise and the recession crisis. This will go for next 6 months. So, stay where ever you are. Don’t change jobs in this market

Fresh round of layoffs to happen

Lawyer

- Central Banks have almost achieved their objective of controlling inflation through tightened monetary policy. Though the CPI is inching lower,  asset inflation is resurfacing through stock prices and real estate. 
- Many listed companies that came out with the quarterly numbers are nothing good to talk about. Growth and profits are subdued and for small and mid caps the numbers are decimated but the stocks are still trading at a historical premium. 
- Analysts will once again start downgrading the earnings forecast and that will start the downward momentum. Once again people will undergo the "Flight to Quality" effect. 
- No of Bankruptcies is steadily increasing 
- No of Job openings are trending lower
- Most of the US listed firms that have borrowed at a lower interest rate in 2021 are coming up for renewals this year. By the time they refinance, they will be doing it at a higher interest rate which will impact their PAT as a result their EPS estimates will take a biting. 
- Gold looks attractive from a market cycle standpoint. 

My Recommendation: 
- Have an emergency fund for at least 6 to 9 months to cover your expenses. 
- Exit overvalued small and microcaps stocks. Move to a reasonably valued large cap.
- Have health insurance for you and your dependents. 
- Move out of small cap mutual funds and have some allocation to debt funds. 

Let me know your thoughts. 

I hope 2025 turns out better.

[Must Read] Markets will Correct 📉

NIFTY50 is again at an All Time High. Are you guys selling/ holding/ buying? 📈

Welcome to Software Engineers's Private Community

When can we expect the market to be up and we get the calls for hiring?
Currently, hardly any interview calls are approached.

When will the market be up?

Software Test- QA

Hi, does anybody here think that markets have become overvalued due to continuous inflows from mutual funds. 

I don't track stock markets that much but i know that DIIs are continuously pumping in money into the stock market whereas FIIs are taking out money. Due to which market is not correcting at all.

 It's just my opinion that share prices are not going at all due to people buying dips all the time either buying direct stocks or through mutual funds. 

I have also read that parag parikh flexi cap fund which has gotten very popular due to its return is currently holding 15% of it's portfolio as cash due to overvaluo. 

What do you guys think about this , or do you have any good material on this to understand. Thanks

What is your understanding of Nifty performance in next 2-3 quarters.

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