Predictions can be wrong

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Predictions can be wrong- Grapevine

Welcome to News Discussion's Private Community

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/bubble-of-all-bubbles-economist-predicts-a-2025-stock-market-crash-likely-worse-than-2008-crisis/articleshow/110927418.cms

Ye dukh kaha khatam nahi hota (Why doesn't this pain end)

Consultant

Welcome to Personal Finance's Private Community

You can’t convince me that Technical Analysis works. Kids thinking that Price Action will make them money lol 😂

Technical Analysis? I’d rather pick tarot cards lmao 😂

Product Manager

Welcome to Software Engineers's Private Community

Hi I was laid off and since the market is in shambles I was planning to go for higher studies abroad. Will the job market become stable after one year?

Market prediction in 2025

Software Engineer

- Scientists have developed an AI system to predict catastrophic tipping points in complex systems like ecological collapse and pandemics.
- The AI combines neural networks to analyze large networks of interacting nodes and their changes over time.
- Researchers successfully tested the AI on real-world data, predicting the transformation of tropical forests into savannah.
- The AI's predictions could help prepare for or prevent critical transitions, potentially mitigating damage.
- Challenges remain, especially in human-involved systems where behavior can alter outcomes, but researchers are optimistic. 

 Source: [Live Science](https://www.livescience.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/new-ai-algorithm-can-predict-the-tipping-points-for-future-disasters-scientists-say)

AI Predicts Future Disasters

Journalist

Welcome to Indian Startups's Private Community

This is just a prediction based on what I've been observing recently. Founder is publishing a lot of self ego boosting articles and aggressively hiring currently.

This has been going on for quite some time and they recently did some layoffs too!

These are some of the early signs when things start to go wrong.

Not sure about their numbers. And even though Indians really love gold it's not an investment. It's a hedge. 

Let's see what happens in the next 12 months.

Prediction - The next startup to fall will be Jar

Thoughts on Varun Mayya

This realisation is purely a selfish thing, which led me to think of reasons behind my friends supporting the BJP.

I absolutely hate BJP's hate, religion, divide&rule politics, and I'm sure most BJP supporters themselves also hate that, but they don't have a choice like most of us. 

If you are supporting BJP, you fall in one of the following categories for sure:

1. Your family supports them, so you have to.

2. Someone in your family is a small/big BJP related politician.

3. You have seen/used the perks of supporting them i.e local influence.

4. You are a businessman/entrepreneur who benefited from their policies and believes they will help you further as well.

5. Brainwashed blind faith in Modi.

6. You are a Hindu and you blindly hate Muslims. 

7. No trust in the opposition party. 

What other reasons? Tell me in the comments, what were your reasons to vote for the BJP. 

Now coming to my reason: 

I don't want to see the stock market bloodbath, i have invested a lot and for sure the market will go down 20-30% if the BJP loses. 

But glad i didn't vote for them.

[Realisation] I don't support BJP, but I want them to win.

Senior software engineer

Here is the link - https://share.gvine.app/d85jqVYD85t9hqCSA

I made that post on a whim. I added this here just to let you know that i have SKIN IN THE GAME. I know the ***t i am talking about and i am not going to be just blabbering. 

This is going to be a long read.

India is at the cusp of doing something very special and there is an opportunity to make  massive wealth in the next 2 decades. I feel every working professional should look up to equities and get educated if possible. 

If you have no idea of technicals, read this with an open mind, it might give you a new perspective. Technical analysis has a lot more to it than whatever you see normally on YT.

Many fundamental guys say that technicals are mumbo jumbo and it doesn't work. I know someone with over 100 cr of trading account who has built his career using both. I also know someone(Not directly but through someone) with 3000 crore ++ total portfolio and he uses technicals as well. It does work in the market it's just that you should know how to use it.

----------------------------------------------

SBI has a very interesting Long term Structure developing. Here is how i am looking to go long in this Counter. [WEEKLY TIME FRAME].


If you see on the chart there are 2 trough points (curve marked in blue). First curve low point was at 500, 2nd curve low point was at 550. This is a volatility contraction. Volatility decreases, leading to smaller price swings. During 2nd price swing (B) look at the dip in volume when price moves lower. Supply is getting absorbed. The seller was not able to push the price lower and the stock bounced back again. Contraction gets smaller and smaller, sellers are losing control.

(There is so much to explain about VCP but i will have to deviate from the topic. I cannot emphasize enough how much money i have made trading this VCP and combining it with other filters . Look into it.)
cont.

REST OF THE ANALYSIS  IS IN THE COMMENT SECTION.

[Long Read] Complete Technical Analysis of SBI - Big Buying Opportunity ?

Machine Learning Engineer

I strongly feel most of the white collar workers are overvalued. By the time GPT 6 comes(Probably in 2-3 years), 80% jobs will become automated. How are you planning for this wave of change that is coming?

Overvalued People

Business Development Manager

Both indexes began diverging sometime close to when Fed started to aggressively hike rates. It appears that the post-COVID rally was more favourable to the S&P but NIFTY is currently outperforming on absolute returns.

My idea is fundamentally simple. Financial prudence during the raging recovery paid off for us, the economy appears resilient and poised to do well in the near to mid-term. It also reflects that markets are pricing recessionary risk very differently to both markets.

Any ideas by others?

[Thread] Why is the Indian Public Market outperforming the US Public Market?

City are more or less likely going to win the league as they have a much easier run in. Are you expecting any surprises?

Premier League Predictions

Recruiter

The Simpsons predicted

Growth Manager

- Central Banks have almost achieved their objective of controlling inflation through tightened monetary policy. Though the CPI is inching lower,  asset inflation is resurfacing through stock prices and real estate. 
- Many listed companies that came out with the quarterly numbers are nothing good to talk about. Growth and profits are subdued and for small and mid caps the numbers are decimated but the stocks are still trading at a historical premium. 
- Analysts will once again start downgrading the earnings forecast and that will start the downward momentum. Once again people will undergo the "Flight to Quality" effect. 
- No of Bankruptcies is steadily increasing 
- No of Job openings are trending lower
- Most of the US listed firms that have borrowed at a lower interest rate in 2021 are coming up for renewals this year. By the time they refinance, they will be doing it at a higher interest rate which will impact their PAT as a result their EPS estimates will take a biting. 
- Gold looks attractive from a market cycle standpoint. 

My Recommendation: 
- Have an emergency fund for at least 6 to 9 months to cover your expenses. 
- Exit overvalued small and microcaps stocks. Move to a reasonably valued large cap.
- Have health insurance for you and your dependents. 
- Move out of small cap mutual funds and have some allocation to debt funds. 

Let me know your thoughts. 

I hope 2025 turns out better.

[Must Read] Markets will Correct 📉

Welcome to Office Gossip's Private Community

Had a chat with a legendary soonicorn founder yesterday evening and his take was that we are definitely not getting another bull run this decade.

I obviously think more optimistically and hopefully things will look up soon.

What do you all think about this tho?

Reply in comments. Do you all think we ever getting the bull run again? 😔

mid 20s, ctc 30LPA(cash, non esops), monthly expense 60k(including needs + wants), how should I invest (~1.5L pm) considering following:
1. high risk appetite: do not want to invest in FDs
2. asset lite: do not want to invest in real estate
3. no dependencies, no loans, no emis

How do you invest your money?

Interesting take

Software Developer

Hi All

Currently Im having 13.5 lpa package in Infosys , With 3.5 years of work experience (lateral) wanted to know if I stay here for 10-15 years how much package  can I expect in this scenario.

Future Prediction

Some things I believe:
As human beings it is our right (maybe our moral duty) to reshape the universe to our preferences
* Technology, which is really knowledge, enables this
* You should probably work on raising the ceiling, not the floor


Enthusiasm matters!
* It's much easier to work on things that are exciting to you
* It might be easier to do big things than small things for this reason
* Energy is a necessary input for progress


It's important to do things fast
* You learn more per unit time because you make contact with reality more frequently
* Going fast makes you focus on what's important; there's no time for bullshit
* "Slow is fake"
* A week is 2% of the year
* Time is the denominator


 The efficient market hypothesis is a lie
* At best it is a very lossy heuristic
* The best things in life occur where EMH is wrong
* In many cases it's more accurate to model the world as 500 people than 8 billion
* "Most people are other people"


We know less than we think
* The replication crisis is not an aberration
* Many of the things we believe are wrong
* We are often not even asking the right questions


The cultural prohibition on micromanagement is harmful
* Great individuals should be fully empowered to exercise their judgment
* The goal is not to avoid mistakes; the goal is to achieve uncorrelated levels of excellence in some dimension
* The downsides are worth it


Smaller teams are better
* Faster decisions, fewer meetings, more fun
* No need to chop up work for political reasons
* No room for mediocre people (can pay more, too!)
* Large-scale engineering projects are more soluble in IQ than they appear
* Many tech companies are 2-10x overstaffed


Where do you get your dopamine?
* The answer is predictive of your behavior
* Better to get your dopamine from improving your ideas than from having them validated
* It's ok to get yours from "making things happen"


You can do more than you think
* We are tied down by invisible orthodoxy
* The laws of physic

From Nat Friedman’s personal site (former Github CEO)

Recently, I've been observing a concerning trend that I haven't observed before in my 5 years in this industry. 

A large no. of job openings are coming up at mid-sized companies and startups that require 5+ years of experience but pay 7-12 LPA. One of these companies even used to pay a decent more when I'd applied to it a few years before

Does anyone have insights on the root causes behind this trend and how it will shape up the job market going forward?

My hypotheses on root causes:-
(1) Bad job market
(2) Advent of AI

Insane number of low paying software jobs

My view on the Stock market in 2024 :-

Market will rise till March - April 2024 Nifty 23-24k, then will fall, the fall depends on election results
If BJP wins which market is expecting then still the market will fall by 10-15% (Nifty 20-21000) because of buy on rumor and sell on news behavior.
If congress wins then the market may fall by 20-25%(Nifty 18-19000) because of the discontinuity of the current government.
Then the market will start recovery by September.

What do you guys think ?

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