SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

Daily Series #1: Geeking out → Poker Math

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content.

I assume you guys know some basics of Texas Hold'em Poker. Flop refers to "the dealing of the first three face-up cards to the board"

Now, let's look at the table and their positions:

  1. Blinds: First to act every street after pre-flop.
  2. Early positions: Under the Gun(UTG)
  3. Middle positions
  4. Late positions: Button and Cut Off

The order for a 10 person game would be: Small Blind(SB) → Big Blind(BB) → Under the Gun(UTG) → UTG+1 → UTG+2 → MP1 → MP2 → MP3 → Cutting off the Button (CO) → Button (BTN) and then order repeats ...

Some insights:

  1. Blinds see the flop at a discount because they are compelled to play but are at a disadvantage because they are first to act.
  2. This means that more money is made in late positions because they have more information to act on.
  3. However in short stack situations, where effective stack size is small then early positions are better because you have the opportunity to go all in before someone else can as you can maintain Fold equity(Equity from Aggression).

So, Expected Value or E(V) is how do you determine whether you should call or fold basis the size of the pot and your contribution to it basis the number of outs(potential winning hands) you have.

E(V) = Win % * Win Amt - Lose % * Lose Amt

For example: Villain(V) [UTG+1] = $500 Hero(H) (MP1) = $500

SB/BB + Ante = 20/40 + 10 Here, Ante is the bet everyone has to make every hand. This is to make the pot worth playing for everyone.

Pre-Flop: $140 H = A 10 (suited Hearts) V = ? (Unknown)

1 Fold V raises $120 H calls $120, 5 Folds

Flop: $380 The flop is 8 Heart, 3 Heart, K Club V = $370 (All In) H = ? (Do you call or fold?)

Solution: A call is positive E(V) if: Win % > Call Amt/ Pot after Call

You have a strong hand if you can get a flush here. which means you need one of the next two cards Heart Heart Club | Heart* | Heart*

Which means: Win % = 1 - (Odds of 2 cards not being Hearts) = 1 - (40/49 * 39/48) = ~ 36%

So, 370/1120 = ~33% is Call Amt/Pot after Call

Since, 36% > 33% Hero should call.

E(V) = 36% * (380+x) - x * 66% E(V) cut off at 0,

x = $404

You stand to make $ if you decide to call that bet. You can raise any amount till $404 for a positive E(V) after which you should mathematically fold.

An easier way to calculate this is to use 2% if you can only see one card after flop and 4% if you can see both cards.

That way, Win % here would be = 4% * 9 = 36% 9 outs because, 9 cards that are Hearts are left in the deck.

9mo ago
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SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

Tags: @Sherlock007 @BladeRunner007 @AlphaGrindset @TheOatmeal @JadeArgent @potatomato @BiryaniEnthu @Elon_Musk @ElonMast @Rhombus @RashOrient64 @President_Trump @tbk

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

@Ch0nkey05

PerkyWalrus
PerkyWalrus

+1

Although don't know how to play, but let me know how to learn and where to start :)

Interested since it's more of mind game, from what I heard (Harvey Specter & VC)

QuirkyPotato
QuirkyPotato

I don’t think the outs are calculated correctly here. These EV calculations aren’t supposed to be done in isolation, you need to assign a range to your opponent. Like in this case , even an A or T might be good for Hero , so your outs can be 15.

Agreed on the shortcut , 4% and 2% rule is more than enough to approximate once you know your outs correctly. Only caveat is when number of outs are > 9, wherein you need to subtract the number of outs > 9 from the final % to get a more correct approximation. Don’t ask me how , my coach gave it to me as a quick memorisation technique :D

QuirkyPotato
QuirkyPotato

Also kinda disagree on point 3, it’s always better to be in late position, even if short stacked. Information is the biggest advantage and lever you have in this game. Fold equity works well even if you had a raise and calls before you ( unless you are extremely short stacked , < 15bb) . And if you are less than 15bb, you will start getting called by observing opponents if you start shoving wide

QuirkyPotato
QuirkyPotato

+1 for the post tho. Always love to see and discuss poker posts :)

FloatingBiscuit
FloatingBiscuit

@salt have you played professionally? I have played this game professionally and would love to connect with someone who appreciates the game as much as I do

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

@Ultramon I haven't played professionally but I have indeed played with real money online and with friends. It is always solid fun. Not massive buy ins (Max 5k) but still good fun.

FloatingBiscuit
FloatingBiscuit

Ahan so a midstake player. We might have played together online since the player pool is not large enough at 10/25 or 25/50.

Anyways a nice post. Let me know if I can help. I can expand a lot on this topic. And do tag me as well in the next post.

ZoomyBiscuit
ZoomyBiscuit

+1

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

You’re in the club. ❤️ You’ll be tagged next time I post.

ZippyTaco
ZippyTaco

@salt do you live in DD where your office is? We can play poker if you're nearby.

+1 though

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

@monkey_shanti not so close but not so far.

ZippyTaco
ZippyTaco

Indiranagar has one poker club where you can play on real money.

ZippyKoala
ZippyKoala

+1

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

You’re in the club. ❤️ You’ll be tagged next time I post.

ZippyTaco
ZippyTaco

Odds of 2 cards not being Hearts = 38/47 * 37/46 Since, I already know 5 cards here (my hand and flop). Let me know if you think otherwise.

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

Yeah true. I have not accounted for cards dealt to me. You are correct.

SleepyBanana
SleepyBanana

+1

Kickass content @salt

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

@EarthDragon Hahahah Thanks

PeppyMarshmallow
PeppyMarshmallow

+1

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

You’re in the club. ❤️ You’ll be tagged next time I post.

FluffyNarwhal
FluffyNarwhal

+1

SquishyQuokka
SquishyQuokka

You’re in the club. ❤️ You’ll be tagged next time I post.

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