Is PM salary due for a correction?

For most part of last decade, product managers commanded a healthy premium in compensation over their business counterparts. This is largely how tech companies globally have operated, and what we have mirrored. But as the Indian tech ecosystem has matured over the last few years, a couple of the underlying assumptions have changed:

One, ten years back, there was an explosion of startups and they were all in the market for "experienced product managers", and in a still nascent tech industry, such talent was in scarcity - thus triggering a premium positioning. Now, arguably, the equation has reversed: there are far more people entering the trade / in the profession with <5 years experience, than there are open roles in the market. And more critically, the growth rate of "product positions" has stagnated: particularly since product is a high-leverage function and does not scale linearly with company growth (but instead only with growth in # of companies).

Two, most Indian startups / tech companies are not product-led unlike Silicon Valley ventures. Instead, a vast majority are operating businesses. These companies tend to have dedicated business teams who take up primary ownership of the business goals and thus, call the shots. In such setups, product managers play second fiddle as a bridge function to tech. Worse, product managers who scaled in such environments, they end up playing that part too: too focused on tech / design execution with not as much depth on the business understanding. In post-covid boom, we got the tailwind of being an engineering-adjacency in a techno-optimistic market. Now the same tides have turned and as a "generalist tech function", we are under scrutiny for wage-bill pressure.

Do you foresee a correction in PM salaries? How soon (1y / 3y / 5y), and to what extent (10% / 20% / 30%) will the market correct itself?