Tech recession

June 2024

As per estimated by Goldman, Q2, 24 is a possible timeline for rate cuts. Till then it might be mostly backfills or incremental hirings. Once the money flow is easier, companies will restart the “costly growth initiatives” as no one from the investors will raise any finger. Money will start flowing back to the equities, keeping respective shareholders happy!

Jan-2024 when I expect hiring to start picking up.

Fed rate cuts will not result in gu$h of money - we saw in 2021 - again in foreseeable future.

The real problem is zombie startups which are chugging along without any hope of being a viable business.

All the muck needs to be washed away first for new crop to emerge.

My opinion- By October
Layoffs have stopped broadly and only backfilling is starting
Once visibility of discretionary spending resume hiring is likely to start
One major reason for the cycle was US Fed and free flow of money at low interest rates , over hiring etc and not once US stops further rate hikes ( gives an indication) discretionary spending will resume .

IT Hiring happens before the projects start to kick in . Start up hiring will also take off I am saying this for normal market conditions

“Bull run” unlikely till US gets out of its mess , which is not happened till Q2 next year

We aren't in a recession. We're just back to normal