It seems like the question might have missed the mark. I've never really seen PMs hitting a 'peak' in the traditional sense, because success in this field isn't about luck. My friends who are great PMs might experience huge years if they catch a break with market events on significant feature changes.
Our team is stacked with incredibly smart people. Sure, everyone has years where their ideas really shine, but you don't see those dramatic falls off unless something major happens. The industry feels more stable in terms of movement between companies, likely because the hiring process and academic credentials are more reliable indicators of someone's long-term success compared to other fields. If someone's done standout work for their undergrad and wants to work with us, I'm pretty confident they'll continue to produce great work here.
Let's be real: we're all here for the money, but the work we do isn't too far removed from reality.
The most significant shifts within the companies usually come down to what the lower-tier companies are willing to offer or personal reasons, like seeking a less stressful environment.
Over the years, there have only been a couple of hires I realized weren't a good fit for the industry. After about six months, I had a frank conversation with them, not to fire them, but to suggest they start looking elsewhere. Both found opportunities elsewhere eventually and let me know when they were leaving.
And then there are those who retire early, having hit their financial goals, ready to do whatever they please...
I mean you can disagree with it all you like but I've worked at the best Product companies in the world for the last 15 years.
Its my job to build the best Products out there. If we were to blow up its my fault, I have hired PMs from other teams after they have been let go because the previous Product Head fucked up not because a single one of them was a bad PM.
All my strategies are based in logic and reason and analysed to an insane amount of detail before they are put into production. If they drive impact then its not through luck, its because we have spent hours and hours finding inefficiencies and crafting strategies to benefit off it.
In all honesty I also just dont think the perspective of people just getting laid off really holds up, the whole reason why the entire industry is heading in the data focused Product Management is that its 'proper impact'.
Yes people come and go and they dont last forever but I have had many IIT+IIM grads working for me... we will come up with new ones.
