This one economic shift will shape India’s attractiveness for foreign capital. Mark my words, we’ll benefit a lot from this.  Strongly recommend going through this opinion piece :)

Welcome to News Discussion's Private Community

This one economic shift will shape India’s attractiveness for foreign capital. Mark my words, we’ll benefit a lot from this.

Strongly recommend going through this opinion piece :)

China is turning Japanese - Andy Kessler from WSJ

Investment Associate

China is turning Japanese - Andy Kessler from WSJ- Grapevine

Welcome to Personal Finance's Private Community

The tailwinds are here now. This is probably the most optimism I have seen for India in the last decade.

Investors are paying close attention to the contrasting trajectories of two of Asia’s greatest powers.

Wall Street Snubs China for India in a Historic Markets Shift

Product Manager

Last week, I was wondering how long has it been for me since I joined Grapevine. Scrolling through OTPs, I realized that the first time I "may" have joined the app is exactly one year ago since today.

It has been a hell of a ride. I have had insane conversations with some of the best minds in this country. It also made me appreciate how the same people who will be discussing Finance in one post also end up talking about Nietzsche in another post. 

I have always felt that we all have great stories to share in our lives. Grapevine has always been a place where smart people in this country have contributed to the collective knowledge here. 

Lastly, there are always a ton of gloomy folks around you, they are doomsayers. That is always because people in general are more optimistic about their future and that remains a mainstream emotion. Which means that the cost of being wrong is low and the praise for being right is high when you are negative all the time as it is a contrarian take.

But let me tell you the most important thing, India is becoming big. No matter what may come our way. People will crib about things as they should, but don't let that deter you from building in India and staying in India. There is a ton of money to be made and you should aim to be on the right side of history.

Exactly 1 year ago, I joined Grapevine. Some thoughts and musings.

Love him or hate him, but please watch the video once. This increasing dictatorship has to end.

Explore the intricate dynamics of democracy in India with our latest video, where we scrutinize the growing concerns around the 'One Nation, One Party' ideol...

Is India becoming a DICTATORSHIP? | Chandigarh Elections | Farmers Protest | Dhruv Rathee

Watch before it’s too late…

Dhruvee rathee is biased guy. 
  
 Will listen to someone neutral.

Software Engineer

Welcome to Office Gossip's Private Community

Had a chat with a legendary soonicorn founder yesterday evening and his take was that we are definitely not getting another bull run this decade.

I obviously think more optimistically and hopefully things will look up soon.

What do you all think about this tho?

Reply in comments. Do you all think we ever getting the bull run again? 😔

We’ll 100% see another bull run. It’s just a question of when.  
  
 Hopefully sooner rather than later, only a bull run can fix me…

Software Developer

..unless either of the two mess up insanely bad

We'll probably get to the #3 spot if things go well. But it seems impossible that we'll ever go beyond that.

Internal reasons that are very hard to fix:-

(1) Our population TFR fell below standard replacement rate in 2023. This means we will not be able to follow the same economic growth trajectory required to reach developed status before population stagnation or declination. This is not a death knell but definitely very VERY bad news.

(2) Our blue-collar workforce skill levels are not only subpar but are slowly falling behind the world standards every year. Much of our youth aim to join government orgs like the Army or the Railways which train for the job later, not before. Despite a national shortage of skilled plumbers, electricians etc, our vocational training orgs have been unsuccessful in attracting people towards these careers as well as churning out skilled workers.

(3) Our bureaucratic environment is extremely slow with pathetic turnaround times on initiatives. This is not government specific and has always been the case so it seems like this will always be. This is not even a problem unique to India as many other countries have been facing this too but it is still a factor that negatively impacts our growth massively.

I wish it was just internal reasons but a large part of it also comes down to both China and US being aggressively great at ensuring their successes:-

(1) Chinese manufacturing seems nearly impossible to overcome - not just for India but also for the US. Yes, we might win over some industries and companies like the US, Vietnam, Thailand etc. have been doing but the amount of autocratic control in China allows them to crush competition easily. Case in point - the recent tussle between India and China on solar manufacturing which China won by autocratically lowering their prices.

(2) If de-dollarisation succeeds, it will benefit China the most because (contd. in comments)

Controversial: India will never overtake China or US

Let's do our part, instead FOMO, have an abundance mindset,keep building and shipping.

- The Economic Survey 2023-24 suggests India should focus on attracting FDI from China to benefit from the global 'China Plus One' strategy, rather than integrating into China's supply chain.
- The Survey highlights India's growing electronic exports, particularly in mobile phones, as a key area of growth.
- With multinational companies shifting away from China, India has a unique opportunity to attract Chinese investments and boost its manufacturing exports.
- The government's PLI scheme, offering tax breaks and subsidies, is crucial in attracting companies to set up operations in India, especially in the electronics sector.
- Major tech companies like Apple and Google are already increasing their production in India, signaling a positive trend for the country's manufacturing landscape. 

 Source: Inc42

Economic Survey Advocates for Increased FDI from China to Boost India's Exports

Journalist

Both indexes began diverging sometime close to when Fed started to aggressively hike rates. It appears that the post-COVID rally was more favourable to the S&P but NIFTY is currently outperforming on absolute returns.

My idea is fundamentally simple. Financial prudence during the raging recovery paid off for us, the economy appears resilient and poised to do well in the near to mid-term. It also reflects that markets are pricing recessionary risk very differently to both markets.

Any ideas by others?

[Thread] Why is the Indian Public Market outperforming the US Public Market?

- At a testing facility in Tamil Nadu, Mahindra Group's new vehicles highlight India's growing automotive sector and Modi's 'Self-reliant India' campaign.
- Despite restrictions on Chinese investment, India remains heavily dependent on Chinese imports, including battery cells for Mahindra's EVs.
- Critics argue that India's tough stance on China could hinder its manufacturing ambitions, with delays in visas for Chinese technicians affecting companies like Apple.
- The Modi government is divided on whether to ease restrictions, with some officials pushing for more flexibility to attract foreign investment.
- Major Indian companies, like Tata Power, are working to reduce reliance on Chinese imports, aiming for self-sufficiency in critical sectors like solar energy. 

 Source: [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5a2b4491-5687-4b11-872d-a4f51121bbb2)

Can India’s Economy Thrive Without China’s Help?

Indians. It Feels we might be on the verge of something epic

Business Development Manager

- India is emerging as the next big growth market for consumer goods giants like PepsiCo and Unilever, filling the gap left by China's uneven recovery.
- Companies are targeting India's diverse population and untapped rural market with new flavors and size variants, driven by the country's fast-paced economic growth.
- Major consumer goods firms expect higher government spending, a better monsoon season, and a resurgence in private consumption to boost consumer spending in the coming quarters.
- The combined market share of top multinational companies in India is projected to rise, while their market share in China is expected to decline.
- Consumer goods companies are heavily investing in India with new product launches and packaging upgrades, contrasting with muted growth in China. 

 Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/pepsico-pg-india-becomes-next-big-growth-bet-china-lags-2024-08-09/)

India Becomes Key Growth Market for Consumer Goods Giants as China Slows

Google lays off more employees and moves some roles to other countries

Covid charity hiring and Diversity hiring ate google from inside just in 3 years. 🥲

Research Engineer

A bit harsh. On the typical day Rajiv Malhotra is a typical person, but removing the assholishness, is there some point to this argument?

What are your thoughts on this?

Corporate Strategist

- India is rapidly catching up to China in the MSCI emerging markets index, raising questions for global investors about where to allocate their capital.
- Indian stocks have surged, now making up nearly 20% of the index, while China's share has dropped significantly since 2020.
- An upcoming MSCI review could see India's weighting surpass 20%, putting it just behind China and ahead of Taiwan.
- Investors face a dilemma: invest in India's expensive but high-performing market or China's cheaper stocks amid an economic slowdown.
- Domestic investment in Indian equities has been strong, countering foreign outflows and driving up valuations, despite concerns about sustainability. 

 Source: FT

India Closes in on China as Largest Emerging Market

I was thinking about this few days back...Today a swiggy employee validated my thoughts so posting here.

Layoffs are mainly in cream jobs(20-30% which is hardly 2-3cr source tax web) and in India mainly home loans or highly consumable loans like car or PL are taken by White collars...As per labour law, we ain't protected like in Korea.

So, if someone or let's say a major chunk loses his or her job then how the system will absorb this default?

Some data...

Fy23 Home loan Size is 20 lac crore or $250B (15% of total loans disbursed by amount)

2030 it's about to touch $1T

Cagr 23% in HL growth 📈

What if defaults rise in dual digit?

Plus exorbitant hike in flat price like literally greater Noida West have 5lac unsold flat but still 10lacs worth flats are being sold at 40-50lacs (poor quality and seelan issues after a month)

PS - Usa and China have seen this. (2008 and ongoing in China)

China is turning Japanese - Andy Kessler from WSJ

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