Insane Derivatives to Cash Volume Ratio

Google had some crazy growth numbers and profit, which merited it's IPO Valuation. And yet, it has only(?) 76x since then. Here, in India, we have shitty SME companies 50x in 3-5 years. Signifies the impact of entry valuation

Sharechat raises 50M USD via Convertible Debentures from existing investors. The picture isn't as rosy as what it seems. Plus, twitter bio suggests that they are now positioning as an AI powered content platform? Welcome to the peak AI era. Time to jump off the AI bandwagon when normies start chanting AI AI AI.

There are essentially four parties in the startup economy: 1. The Consumer 2. The Enabler(read, Startup) 3. The Service Provider 4. The Investor Now let's look at Game Theory motivations: 1. The Indian Consumer wants to minimise money spent per unit value extracted, the Western Consumer wants to maximise value extracted per unit money spent. (There's a massive difference.) 2. The Startup depending on the stage wants to maximise User Growth and Free Cash Flows. 3. The Service provider wants to maximise financial incentives. 4. The Investor is wants to maximise the XIRR of their fund. For this they need to reach a multibagger liquidity event. Now let's look at what happens when: 1. The Consumer gets f'ed over: The startup attains pricing power through deep competitive moats allowing for monopolisation. They can jack up the prices to ensure nice FCF, greater rewards for Service Providers and great returns to their investors. (Think, Uber can charge anything to you now) 2. The Startup gets f'ed over: The users get bang for their buck, the service providers get good incentives, the investors push for higher growth but unfortunately the startup does not have enough capital to service their Cost of Operations through their unit economics, so they will either run out of cash or investor patience. Either ways, they are doomed. (Think every legit startup that failed) 3. The Service Provider get f'ed over: This is the likeliest scenario as they have the least power in this dynamic. Rewards will be reduced over time or made harder to achieve. They have no option because they got no option for sustenance. (Think any on-demand service providing app) 4. The investor gets f'ed over: Now imagine there is a startup that can balance the act very well. They have a service that users are willing to pay a margin on. They pay their service providers fairly and have decent unit economics. Now, the investor will do halla about destruction of shareholder value from little growth. (Is this the case with BluSmart?) Maybe that's why building in India is tough.

This should help everyone understand the true picture of income brackets Indians fall in, where do viners belong?

The distribution of deposits in scheduled commercial banks(SCBs) across the Indian economy reaffirms that India is fundamentally an ascending world country. 1. Households make up the majority of deposits, a whopping 61.95%, close to ₹11,792,507 crores in SCBs. It appears that Indian Households are poised as significant potential consumers. It will be interesting to see how startups position themselves towards B2C services and product offerings that appeal to this sector. 2. There is also a significant gender split, with deposits from women roughly being a fifth of the total (20.49%), close to ₹3,900,593 crores. This represents a sizeable yet underutilised female demographic, a growth opportunity waiting to be tapped for startups. Women centric consumption will become a macro trend as a second order effect. Think maternity care, female hygiene, beauty, women-centric fashion and more. 3. Importantly, the majority of deposits are held in urban and metropolitan centres, cumulating to around 76% of all deposits (around ₹15,270,500 crores). It was always obvious that the highest revenue opportunity is in the Indian Metro scene. There exists mainstream relevance and aspiration for folks outside of these spaces. The road to higher likelihood of growth and profitability leads through the Indian Metro. 4. Large deposits for the Non-Financial Corporations at around ₹32,611,52 crores or 17.13% presents an uncanny duality. On one hand, these corporations are likely competition for startups. But? On the other hand, they can also be viewed as potential clients. B2B startups that offer valuable services to these corporations, such as SaaS solutions, stand to gain from this. 5. The Financial Corporations section, represents 5.84% of total deposits (₹1,111,565 crores) It creates an opportunity for FinTech startups seeking to disrupt or foster partnerships. Link to RBI data: https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=BsrPublications#!21

Translation of the image: Where our dreams comet true, their struggle begins

Zomato delivered another great set of results. Now they are adding 250Cr cash every quarter. The company hit two benchmarks this quarter according to my calculations, 50,000 Cr worth of orders (4x Q3) and 100 Cr orders (4x Q3), and these are growing 25-30% year on year. Why is this interesting? As some of you might know, they have started adding platform fees to the orders. Even one more rupee of platform fee will add 100 Cr to EBITDA. So, if they increase fees from 5 to 10, that's 500 Cr more EBITDA every year. Now, If you look at this quarter's results vs last quarter's results, they have added ~3600 Cr of order value, and made 380 Cr of EBITDA (this does not include Events). Which means they are making 10% as EBITDA. In next 3 years, if Zomato doubles their order value to 1,00,000 Cr, and even make 8% EBITDA, this could mean 8000 Cr EBITDA (almost 1 billion dollars). What markets will give as multiple on this, is guess work. Could be 25-40x (Don't hold me on this). Hence the stock looks undervalued from a 3 year lens

I've heard that Cashfree payments is offering Rs. 1 Cr CTC to a group product manager with 8-10 YOE. Is is true? If yes, what does the real job scenario look like? Work pressure? Growth? Stability?