Demand and Supply.
We witnessed unexpected demand post-pandemic. Everyone hoped for a downturn but besides the first few months of 2000, there was none. Just look at NIFTY from March 2000.
Recall that silicon chip manufacturers had delayed the chip orders anticipating fall in public spending post pandemic. They were surprised like everyone and caught off-gaurd. Petrol crossed Rs. 100 in India but no one cried out.
Maybe, we just realized the futility of saving money with such a close encounter with death during the pandemic and went out guns blazing with discretionary spending.
Seeing the boom, investors opened up their coffers. There was money to be made in this boom. Companies were flush with money and they did not know what to do with it. So they started pumping money into just about any and every idea.
But they needed resources. Demand went up sharply. Supply is inelastic in short term. So prices (salaries) went up. The same talent pool, but everyone gets paid more. In the longer term we saw supply go up with more people upskilling and entering the talent pool. The course peddlers made a killing.
With the success in finding vaccines, rapid vaccination and subsequent herd immunity we overcame the pandemic. The uncertainty was over. Discretionary spending was reigned in and demand fell.
At the same time we witnessed the Ukraine-Russia war at the start of 2022. With sanctions on Russia, the energy supply throughout the world was affected. US and EU had to source their demand from elsewhere and this additional demand led to a worldwide increase in energy prices. Energy inflation slowly percolated through the economy affecting everything else. Food prices increased by 10% in US from Dec'21 to Dec'22. This further reduced discretionary spending and reduced demand.
We saw interest rate actions by Fed in 2022 hoping to reign in the inflation. Debt was expensive again. Funding dried up.
Continued.... (1/2)