I was thinking about this few days back...Today a swiggy employee validated my thoughts so posting here.
Layoffs are mainly in cream jobs(20-30% which is hardly 2-3cr source tax web) and in India mainly home loans or highly consumable loans like car or PL are taken by White collars...As per labour law, we ain't protected like in Korea.
So, if someone or let's say a major chunk loses his or her job then how the system will absorb this default?
Some data...
Fy23 Home loan Size is 20 lac crore or $250B (15% of total loans disbursed by amount)
2030 it's about to touch $1T
Cagr 23% in HL growth 📈
What if defaults rise in dual digit?
Plus exorbitant hike in flat price like literally greater Noida West have 5lac unsold flat but still 10lacs worth flats are being sold at 40-50lacs (poor quality and seelan issues after a month)
PS - Usa and China have seen this. (2008 and ongoing in China)
The best time to buy was after demo and during COVID. The youtubers who gave bull shit recommendation of rent vs buy should be jailed. The price to income ratio today is actually less compared to 2008. However, the main difference is that those who started career since 2010 has seen only one way growth due to zirp. Any inversion to mean will be shocking to many to say the least.
Hope the central planners will be able to smoothen out the curve however will the capitalists let this? There is billions to be made in shorting. This is how modern day slavery works.
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Few questions that you should find answers to for your assertion to hold true:
Please don't believe these industry numbers for FY30. Unless the market was growing at 30% over last 7-8 years, there's no reason how it can grow this much over next 7-8 years. As far as I know, retail loans which have seen unprecedented tech improved, have also only grown by 15% over last decade.
VC view...loved this...but still am intrigued about a debt crisis
We needed a funding apocalypse for this specifically. Indian millennials have crazy spending habits. I have friends who have taken home loans which will take ... Wait for it.. 35 years to clear ! That means they will have to pay EMIs even after age of 60. 😱
Home loan crisis in India will begin due to low fertility rates, good properties (quality and location wise) will not face any issue, Many of my friends have properties where they have paid more money ( actual price + loan interest) than market price of apartment, crisis is already in inital stage, luxury segment will get hit last
With big corporate giants like Google, Apple, Bain, Tesla, Amazon etc. laying off staff in the name of cost reduction, automation&innovation and restructuring while at the same time tech companies like Accenture not awarding any yearly h...
Liabilities and high interest loans rising, household savings falling. It's a very worrying statistic if people are borrowing money just to stay afloat.
Correlation is not causation, less savings doesn't imply there's no money with people, it could very well be increase...
Saw a similar post somewhere from an European and I think it’s pretty valid for India.
For context, I am in my early 30s, a home owner, living in tier-2 city with a pretty high salary. Recently got married and my wife also works as an...
Great post, I was thinking to jot down something similar. The way I see is that our generation(I'm Gen Z), is f...
