The real US economy really has been shrinking for the last 15 years. They've moved from industrial capital to finance and tech fuelled speculative growth. Each so called "recovery" has been from an ever increasing debt level.

Hudson did an excellent analysis on this recently
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/08/07/stock-market-crash-financial-crisis-michael-hudson/

Software Engineer

Welcome to News Discussion's Private Community

He says the US economy is about to get f*ckd

Product Manager

He says the US economy is about to get f*ckd- Grapevine

2001 was a Dot Com collapse.
2008 was a banking collapse that hit IT too.
This year first it was the Tech companies and now its the Banking, Financial Sector that is getting hit, making it the worst of all recessions.
And its expected to get worse with Fed likely to hike up interest rates.

Its like this year we are having the worst of both 2001 and 2008.

Tough times ahead

Welcome to Personal Finance's Private Community

- Central Banks have almost achieved their objective of controlling inflation through tightened monetary policy. Though the CPI is inching lower,  asset inflation is resurfacing through stock prices and real estate. 
- Many listed companies that came out with the quarterly numbers are nothing good to talk about. Growth and profits are subdued and for small and mid caps the numbers are decimated but the stocks are still trading at a historical premium. 
- Analysts will once again start downgrading the earnings forecast and that will start the downward momentum. Once again people will undergo the "Flight to Quality" effect. 
- No of Bankruptcies is steadily increasing 
- No of Job openings are trending lower
- Most of the US listed firms that have borrowed at a lower interest rate in 2021 are coming up for renewals this year. By the time they refinance, they will be doing it at a higher interest rate which will impact their PAT as a result their EPS estimates will take a biting. 
- Gold looks attractive from a market cycle standpoint. 

My Recommendation: 
- Have an emergency fund for at least 6 to 9 months to cover your expenses. 
- Exit overvalued small and microcaps stocks. Move to a reasonably valued large cap.
- Have health insurance for you and your dependents. 
- Move out of small cap mutual funds and have some allocation to debt funds. 

Let me know your thoughts. 

I hope 2025 turns out better.

[Must Read] Markets will Correct 📉

Man, not one month of 2024 has completed, and hoping for a good 2025. Tough times!

Consultant

Germany and many other nations on border line.

Impact on India viners?

UK under recession 💣💣💣

Senior Consultant

All of my feed is now filled with layoff posts from ex faang employees.
The same feed was filled with posts showing off joining gift last year. 
What is happening. Why is it happening. Who is responsible for this. I am totally not sure.
Will there be a 2008 like crash, this time because of overhyped tech sector ?

Linkedin Now

Software Developer

These days, I can't help but keep on thinking about post white collar labour economy and it's implication on our day to  day life.... 

We can keep on dwelling in our wishful cocoon but fact remains that world is going to be vastly different in 4-5 years vis a viz today... 

In that scenario, let's us discuss some scenario :
1. What will be impact on rental yields of tier  1 cities and consequently what will be overall impact on Indian real estate 
2. What would be impact on banking interest rates 
3. Where will you park your money in that scenario : Gold, Indian Equity , Big Tech Equity , FD, Real estate or Cash.. 

My opinion :
1. As high paying jobs for majority of people diminishes, Rental yields of tier 1 cities will come down thereby directly impacting real estate. This will result in huge NPA by those people who have taken loans for 20-30 years period. This will eventually bankrupt real estate developers thereby making real estate deflationary. 

2. We will begin to witness  overall a deflationary society where cost of services like Education, software, finance etc will drastically reduce. Moreover due to high NPAs,  banking interest rate will reduce. Home loans for tenure of 20-30 years will drastically reduce due to increased uncertainty. 

3. Gold has historically been inflation proof asset. However will it still be a good asset to invest into in a deflationary society?  What are things that will still hold value then? 

Don't you think current big techs will become East India Company of future indirectly controlling world's economy? 

I would love to know what do grapevine folks think about the same  !

Discussion about post white collar labour economics

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Why are they laying off despite the market boom? Especially azure

Microsoft layoffs

Just an open ended question on why are layoffs happening on such a scale. I personally feel the skill to salary ratio has fucked up so much lately that the companies are having to fire people who are essentially useless to them. More of liabilities than just assets! What do you think?

Layoffs - who do you blame?

Absolutely agreed. Hiring in hordes because money was easily available earlier and founders/companies thought that they will be able to build more and hence get more value / valuation sooner was the core reason why the skill to salary ratio got f’ed up. And it’s good that it’s being reset now. 
  
 Coming to who to blame for layoffs - no one. It’s pure capitalism - there was money, hence there were jobs. For whatever time people got paid a lot more than they deserved - they should be rather thankful. If they built their life around the assumption that this much money was the new normal, it was their naïveté. Companies got to survive, and they have to do whatever has to be done… as long as it’s ethical. Firing is fine. Not paying salaries / dues is not.

Founding Engineer

Software Lead

Welcome to Software Engineers's Private Community

Do you feel 2021 level of Job Market is back?

Suddenly the number of jobs have increased

..unless either of the two mess up insanely bad

We'll probably get to the #3 spot if things go well. But it seems impossible that we'll ever go beyond that.

Internal reasons that are very hard to fix:-

(1) Our population TFR fell below standard replacement rate in 2023. This means we will not be able to follow the same economic growth trajectory required to reach developed status before population stagnation or declination. This is not a death knell but definitely very VERY bad news.

(2) Our blue-collar workforce skill levels are not only subpar but are slowly falling behind the world standards every year. Much of our youth aim to join government orgs like the Army or the Railways which train for the job later, not before. Despite a national shortage of skilled plumbers, electricians etc, our vocational training orgs have been unsuccessful in attracting people towards these careers as well as churning out skilled workers.

(3) Our bureaucratic environment is extremely slow with pathetic turnaround times on initiatives. This is not government specific and has always been the case so it seems like this will always be. This is not even a problem unique to India as many other countries have been facing this too but it is still a factor that negatively impacts our growth massively.

I wish it was just internal reasons but a large part of it also comes down to both China and US being aggressively great at ensuring their successes:-

(1) Chinese manufacturing seems nearly impossible to overcome - not just for India but also for the US. Yes, we might win over some industries and companies like the US, Vietnam, Thailand etc. have been doing but the amount of autocratic control in China allows them to crush competition easily. Case in point - the recent tussle between India and China on solar manufacturing which China won by autocratically lowering their prices.

(2) If de-dollarisation succeeds, it will benefit China the most because (contd. in comments)

Controversial: India will never overtake China or US

Let's do our part, instead FOMO, have an abundance mindset,keep building and shipping.

When the market will stable , when this layoff period will go away ? Any thought 🤔

When this layoffs time will go away .

Today, the markets have been bleeding across USA, Japan, India due to number of reasons contributing to it. War between iran- Israel, unemployment rate in USA going up, increase in interest rates in Japan which led to the worst decline of their stock markets in history. 
We were thinking that since now openings are coming up, situation could improve. Will the situation get worse from here in the upcoming days or is it too early to say?

Markets bleeding- Sign of recession and less job opportunities

Data Scientist

Applicable for tech market for both freshers and experienced.

Do you think the ruling government should take responsibility for the current job market? If yes, how? If not, why?

Good time to analyse your investments and make adjustments. Keep an eye on how much runway you have in liquid assets in case worst happens.

Worst is yet to come. Fasten your seatbelts.

What do you guys think is the reason behind the job market being at its lowest level since past 6-7 months ?

(P.s- i made a horrible mistake by joining a cpa outsourcing startup , I'm not been assigned any client for the past one year also they have not given me any kind of training. I'M FUCKING TRAPPED !!)

Job market

External Audit

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Met a PM from IIT / IIM with 4 years of experience. He is working at a  well know soonicorn at a salary of 17  lakhs per year . He used to draw 30 lakhs per year in his last role before we was laid off . Interesting Times ahead

PM Salaries Have Crashed.

A minute of silence to all the grapevine polls where salary expectations are so high 😁

Growth Manager

Product Owner

Why American President is explaining how will he create jobs? Arent they already the world no. 1.

What?

Both indexes began diverging sometime close to when Fed started to aggressively hike rates. It appears that the post-COVID rally was more favourable to the S&P but NIFTY is currently outperforming on absolute returns.

My idea is fundamentally simple. Financial prudence during the raging recovery paid off for us, the economy appears resilient and poised to do well in the near to mid-term. It also reflects that markets are pricing recessionary risk very differently to both markets.

Any ideas by others?

[Thread] Why is the Indian Public Market outperforming the US Public Market?

Warning bells of economic uncertainty, by sridhar vembu.

Yeah.. mid yeat bonus time.. so obviously the economy has slowed down. I thibk it will pick up after oct. Next slow down will come around april next year. This is cyclical.  
 Any time now a ceo/md will come and say we need to work twice as hard inorder to survive this , " perform or perish".. etc. 
 Since y2k, the end of world has become a cliche.

Here is the way it happens
Fed in USA will increase interest rates to tame inflation. VCs will have to generate greater returns, because USA bonds give better return than most of the bets they’re going to make. Half of the portfolio companies of normie VCs will go under. 

All the limited partners who put in the money into VCs pocket to invest, will start drying up. They'll question every investment the VC makes, so ofc they will become risk averse. 

So VCs will force their companies to become profitable, cut down cost in every way possible. 

Startups will end up firing 20-30 per of the workforce, its do or die for them.  


Now, what can you do?
1/ have buffer amount in fixed deposits (5-6 mos of your expenses), amount you can liquidate easily
2/ now is the time to work hard and prove your worth, be the top performer in team. For the first time in 5y, hiring and retaining equation is in employers favor 
3/ cut down on buying any assets which are not going to appreciate (esp the ones you’re buying on Emi)
4/ upskill yourself 
5/ if possible get a pvt healthcare insurance for you and your loved ones, don't depend on corporate insurance. 

Remember, USA’s recession is world’s recession. Only question is how the cards are going to fall, together all at once or one by one. 

Brace up, next 9 mos are going to be the most difficult times you’ve seen in tech in last 2 decades. 

Godspeed.

ps: sector i would stay away from india perspective- edtech for now

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