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What's the impact of Evergrande liquidation on india and global markets

What's the impact of Evergrande liquidation on india and global markets- Grapevine

Germany and many other nations on border line.

Impact on India viners?

UK under recession 💣💣💣

Senior Consultant

Welcome to Indian Startups's Private Community

As we bid farewell to the challenges of the past, let's delve into why 2024 is poised to be a game-changer for the Indian Startups! 🚀

In 2020, the world weathered the storm of COVID, followed by unprecedented quantitative easing. We then saw that in 2021 the bull run came soaring. Investors, fueled by the appetite for riskier assets led to a funding boom for startups as salaries soared.

Fast forward to 2022, and the music is about to stop. The realization that the Fed would hike rates to curb inflation means that funding is about to dry up as big money will be invested away into debt/T-Bills. Though demand remained robust, the stock market felt the impact as JPow raised the interest rates. 

Late 2022 and 2023 saw the tech landscape experiencing layoffs, and startups facing significant headwinds. It’s a wonder  if anyone raised this year.

But here's the twist—2024 looks brighter. The stock markets have rebounded to all-time highs, signaling that things may be on the rise. Despite geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iraq, the macro outlook for India shines bright. 

For Indian Startups? VC Funding is still here to stay. So keep your heads down and keep building. From what I am hearing, it is set to make a roaring comeback. There is now significant rationality in the funding ecosystem leading to realistic valuations.

However, this revival will come with a plot twist. Newer companies, fueled by fresh funding, are set to rise, while most of the lofty valuations of those who raised in 2021 are about to crash and burn.

So buckle up folks. Let’s see where it takes us.

What do you think? 🤔

[Thread] Why 2024 is going to be a massive hit for the ecosystem?

Product Manager

Welcome to Software Engineers's Private Community

Following wester consumerism blindly is the reason when most DINK couple decides not to have kids. The age old colonial term of "civilising the brown is white man's responsiblity".
Let me burst this bubble of ever happy life and not having dependency of kids,they are not investment,etc etc.
 I wont highlight if its right or wrong here for it lots of post are there. I better highlight what will happen after next 20 30 years as I can learn from west(USA) lifestyle pattern.
All these people have kept most of their money in *paper* assets like PF,Bank FD,stocks. Reason for highlighting the word paper will see.
 As the number of oldies will increase over youngsters. Govt will need more youngsters as economy is worked upon by them. No loan takers,no new consumers. What will happen stock prices will fall,same goes for bank interest ,in worst case you wont be ablw to withdraw your principal even(happening in australia, people have to inform why they are withdarwing cash to bankers).
Next for pf: when ww contribute to PF we pay foe the payback of current retired generation or basically we are paying their debt. But due to lack of youngster no one will pay your debt so forget your PF as well.
This is how your money bubble of Crores will vanish. 
There is a term debt to gdp ratio, ever heard? Its the debt taken by govt from future generations to develop current lifestyle. Hence still govt need people to sustain and payback that debt so they will allow illegal immigrants ( what you are seeing in USA and Europe in name of "multicultralism").
And you know what? These rowdy immigrants will fill your city and you will become second class citizen why cause its democracy and majority rules. Noone will protect you leave alone police actually there is no one "left" to protect you( read statements of Canadian police regarding car thefts you will find similarities).
Still oldies are there so new experimentation on assisted suicides(Canada is leading the way in current timeframe).

A letter to DINK couple

Software Developer

Welcome to Personal Finance's Private Community

I have put lots of my liquid money into P2P lending and get 1k daily from cred mint, mobikwik xtra and 12%.

Reason- My bank pays interest which hardly can beat inflation.

Question - Where should I park my liquid money ? 

PS - Markets at high and real estate is bound to crash.

P2P lending diversification

..unless either of the two mess up insanely bad

We'll probably get to the #3 spot if things go well. But it seems impossible that we'll ever go beyond that.

Internal reasons that are very hard to fix:-

(1) Our population TFR fell below standard replacement rate in 2023. This means we will not be able to follow the same economic growth trajectory required to reach developed status before population stagnation or declination. This is not a death knell but definitely very VERY bad news.

(2) Our blue-collar workforce skill levels are not only subpar but are slowly falling behind the world standards every year. Much of our youth aim to join government orgs like the Army or the Railways which train for the job later, not before. Despite a national shortage of skilled plumbers, electricians etc, our vocational training orgs have been unsuccessful in attracting people towards these careers as well as churning out skilled workers.

(3) Our bureaucratic environment is extremely slow with pathetic turnaround times on initiatives. This is not government specific and has always been the case so it seems like this will always be. This is not even a problem unique to India as many other countries have been facing this too but it is still a factor that negatively impacts our growth massively.

I wish it was just internal reasons but a large part of it also comes down to both China and US being aggressively great at ensuring their successes:-

(1) Chinese manufacturing seems nearly impossible to overcome - not just for India but also for the US. Yes, we might win over some industries and companies like the US, Vietnam, Thailand etc. have been doing but the amount of autocratic control in China allows them to crush competition easily. Case in point - the recent tussle between India and China on solar manufacturing which China won by autocratically lowering their prices.

(2) If de-dollarisation succeeds, it will benefit China the most because (contd. in comments)

Controversial: India will never overtake China or US

Interesting that Tiger Global is #1 and so focused on India

Product Marketing Manager

- Deepening Middle East conflict triggers worst session for Indian shares in two months.
- Nifty 50 index and S&P BSE Sensex both drop over 2%, marking worst performance since early August.
- Rising oil prices impact domestic paintmakers, tyre-makers, and oil refiners.
- Potential foreign outflows from India to China add pressure on domestic equities.
- Only two of the Nifty 50 constituents settle higher, with all 13 major sectoral indexes declining.

Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-shares-set-open-lower-tracking-asian-peers-2024-10-03/)

Deepening Mideast Conflict Triggers Worst Indian Shares Session in 2 Months

Journalist

What are you guys attributing this to? Decline over 5 days, feels like the 'Turn of Tide'.

Lower circuit again at 480.

Zomato mcap is 4x of Paytm.

Let this sink...

Paytm Karo!!!

thought on p2p lending as a investment 
like Cred mint, 12 percent club, OkNivesh (okcredit) 
Grip Invest, India P2P etc.

i do not faced any problems with withdrawal and 
i used Cred mint and 12 percent club

but scared as might be chances there NPA will increased and i might not able to withdraw my whole month

i kept around 8L in cred mint
and 3L in 12 percent club

your thoughts?

Is p2p lending is safe in india?

Iranian government is preparing to strike Israel knowing how ruthless the response can be. With big brother US telling it in open to protect ‘Israel’, I don’t know why Iran is committing this grave mistake. US needs a reason to strike Iran and getting it served in a plate. 

India would be impacted as crude will jump leading to more $ outflows.

Iran going the Hamas way?🤔

- Indians flocking to stock market, pulling savings from banks
- Bank deposit growth at lowest in over a year, alarming government
- Deposits provide cheapest funding for investment, crucial for growth
- Mutual fund accounts up 134% in 5 years as Sensex climbs 26%
- Slower credit growth and higher loan costs pushing firms to bond market 

 Source: [bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-30/stock-mania-sucking-cash-from-banks-threatens-india-s-growth)

Stock Market Boom Threatens India's Economic Growth as Bank Deposits Decline

What are you guys doing to over come the risk of US default?

If US defaults, do you think there will be layoffs in india?

These days, I can't help but keep on thinking about post white collar labour economy and it's implication on our day to  day life.... 

We can keep on dwelling in our wishful cocoon but fact remains that world is going to be vastly different in 4-5 years vis a viz today... 

In that scenario, let's us discuss some scenario :
1. What will be impact on rental yields of tier  1 cities and consequently what will be overall impact on Indian real estate 
2. What would be impact on banking interest rates 
3. Where will you park your money in that scenario : Gold, Indian Equity , Big Tech Equity , FD, Real estate or Cash.. 

My opinion :
1. As high paying jobs for majority of people diminishes, Rental yields of tier 1 cities will come down thereby directly impacting real estate. This will result in huge NPA by those people who have taken loans for 20-30 years period. This will eventually bankrupt real estate developers thereby making real estate deflationary. 

2. We will begin to witness  overall a deflationary society where cost of services like Education, software, finance etc will drastically reduce. Moreover due to high NPAs,  banking interest rate will reduce. Home loans for tenure of 20-30 years will drastically reduce due to increased uncertainty. 

3. Gold has historically been inflation proof asset. However will it still be a good asset to invest into in a deflationary society?  What are things that will still hold value then? 

Don't you think current big techs will become East India Company of future indirectly controlling world's economy? 

I would love to know what do grapevine folks think about the same  !

Discussion about post white collar labour economics

Software Engineer

Hey fam, how’s it going???

Given the exit poll flipping and not enough visible strength panning out for NDA, it will be difficult for the ruling party to work on reforms, pass bills and policy continuity as there will be strong opposition pushbacks.

The entire modi stock play across psu banks, infra, power, railways, adani stocks, etc seem to have corrected deeply which were rallying based on exit polls. A lot of them are circuit down.

I feel it’s better to hold on to cash reserves and see if NDA atleast secures 300+.

If NDA come to power with strong opposition, how do you think the modi stocks will pan out? Do you all think they will still be strong bets in modi 3.0?

India Elections ‘24 and it’s  impact on Markets

Business analyst

What could they do to undo this downward spiral?

How long before Byjus runs out of funds?

After getting a bunch of 'buy a house' advice from my in-laws over the weekend, I decided to fire up magicbricks to check prices in Bengaluru. My browsing ended within 5 mins seeing just how much the prices have risen in last 1 year

A 3BHK that used to cost 2.3 Cr last year is now 3.7
A 2BHK that used to cost 1.8 Cr last year is now 2.7

These are two houses I had earmarked for sometime later when I would have more money

WTF is happening in BLR

Did you notice? Bangaluru housing prices have EXPLODED

- India is rapidly catching up to China in the MSCI emerging markets index, raising questions for global investors about where to allocate their capital.
- Indian stocks have surged, now making up nearly 20% of the index, while China's share has dropped significantly since 2020.
- An upcoming MSCI review could see India's weighting surpass 20%, putting it just behind China and ahead of Taiwan.
- Investors face a dilemma: invest in India's expensive but high-performing market or China's cheaper stocks amid an economic slowdown.
- Domestic investment in Indian equities has been strong, countering foreign outflows and driving up valuations, despite concerns about sustainability. 

 Source: FT

India Closes in on China as Largest Emerging Market

Was any startup/investor( in India )impacted due to SVB insolvency?

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