
Reply in comments. Do you all think we ever getting the bull run again? 😔
Had a chat with a legendary soonicorn founder yesterday evening and his take was that we are definitely not getting another bull run this decade.
I obviously think more optimistically and hopefully things will look up soon.
What do you all think about this tho?


Look on the bright side the housing market or the stock bubble did not collapse and all of us(well ~75%) still have our bit inflated salaries. If shit went south half of us would have lost jobs and it would take 2 years to recover from the depression
Now we just have to deal with middle class crippling inflation and slow job market for 1-2 more years 🥲

@Elon_Musk That is very true actually. Even though we might be Meme-ing but India was one of the few countries that showed extreme fiscal prudence during the pandemic and beyond.
This has allowed our economy to stay strong despite global headwinds.

Lol. Give me some of that copium buddy.
Also please dont look at RBI data (especially their FEMA/Foreign exchange data) like I did. You will have sleepless nights

We’ll 100% see another bull run. It’s just a question of when.
Hopefully sooner rather than later, only a bull run can fix me…

Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money 💰 talented folks who know how to bring impact to the table will continue to find great opportunities. Same with freshers who dont mind a few grind years.

@PastElevator Ofcourse. No one discredits that. But the general sentiment will prevail leading to short term pain.

No more free lunch No more 3 yrs of experience directors No more 60lpa engineers who take 4 sprints for basic shit No more dead-on-arrival startups being funded
Right sizing of the overall sector which is useful for all in the long term.
Only folks having a problem now are either ones who are overpaid vs their contribution …. or those who want to ‘manage’ others vs doing what it takes to get the job done

Bull runs and depressions are cyclical. each big crisis has followed up with a big bull run in general. and vice versa. However this time it feels different. the 90-2020 era in the world was broadly the safest ever in human history. Historic global growth, and fewer global conflicts (at least for the developed world) all helped. It seems to be unravelling.
- China delinking: the economic system of the world seems to be changing throwing both China and everybody else into uncertainty and chaos.
- Actual war in Europe
- The US itself seems looming into one crisis after another.
- AI throws another twister into employment.
- Even the Indian govt. has a Jekyll and Hide character. One moment they celebrate startups, next they throw up retrospective taxes and bans.
Businesses need stability and consistency. right now political judicial and executive uncertainty rules across the world.
The next 3-4 years seem tough and unlikely to see the same employment levels as before.

@Baingan it’s actually a very interesting point of view. Some of which I concur with. However, I see one corollary in the India story with Japan in the 1980s.
We might be on the precipice of something that might bewilder most of us.

Did you forget the Asian financial crisis?

The past phase of easy money is not coming back. Nobody is (I hope) foolish enough to pump money for growth at all costs all over again. There is a lot of dry powder sitting to be deployed. It won't be deployed on random businesses which have no clarity of purpose or sound business models. The fantasy world and euphoria of rosy returns which existed on the back of cheap capital is unfortunately behind us.

That’s a poor hypothesis IMHO.
Nobody can predict the future. At the same time, we can see the leading indicators. Some of those are -
-
Macro environment in India : From public to private markets, everyone is sitting on dry powder ready to be deployed. Some healthy exits in PayTM, Zomato, PBF has given visibility to PEs on opportunities. Trickle down factors will definitely help here. You should read more on JP Morgan bond index inclusions & FPIs investments.
-
Infrastructure expenditures : With all these public infra building, things will change. Again, a huge impetus to money flow to people and things will change.
-
Manufacturing boost : We know how likes of Apple are scaling the domestic manufacturing.
In absolute terms, we are still one of the cheapest workforce in the tech world. Cost arbitration will never go away.

@ElonMast Extremely insightful opinion actually. I Concur with most of what you said.

Imo, there will be a stagnation. Countries like India and Indonesia are showing growth potential but the heavy weights China and Europe are not doing so great (China's growth rate is still ~4%). I feel there'll be stagnation for sometime (maybe a decade). But again, I am not an economist or an astrologer 🤷♂️

@MomoMan What we need is the world firing on all of its engines making sure that economies roar harder.

Uske liye toh sorry rahega bro 😂

Did he share why?

@Rhyderrr ostensibly damaged fabric of economies worldwide.

Lol. Fundamentals are fickle and change more often than people imagine. Dooomsday drumrolls are enchanting - be careful.

India will witness a mini bull run phase like 03-08. It could stretch out to be a decade long event, but I prefer to be conservative mainly because of slowing global growth as the new normal. It takes a lot to be growing in near double digits against a globally slower base case scenario. Tech may not necessarily see the wage inflation witnessed previously since that came on the backdrop of ZIRP. If the interest rates remain high in the West, our best case scenario is to export deflation to the west.