Consultant

🚢

Software Engineer

🚢- Grapevine

Welcome to Software Engineers's Private Community

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content.

Imagine you have a very complex situation with varying degrees of randomness. How do you evaluate the probability of certain outcomes? 

One way is a deterministic way which is to sit down and try to compute probabilities of events.
Another way is to simulate these interactions with various seed values and see how these outcomes vary. This is called a Monte Carlo simulation, where we use random sampling to model and analyze complex systems that involve uncertainty.

Let's set up a game and apply a Monte Carlo simulation to it.

You(Hero) and Me(Villain) engage in a strategic coin flipping competition over a series of rounds. Before each round, both of us independently decide whether to flip a coin or pass the turn to the opponent. 

The outcomes are as follows:

1. If both players decide to flip, a fair coin is tossed, and the player who called it correctly gains a point.
2. If one player decides to flip and the other passes, the flipping player gains a point without the need for a coin toss.
3. If both players pass, no points are gained or lost.

We can simulate it by making each decision random:
1. Hero and Villain both independently choose between 0 and 1 for deciding whether to toss or pass. We use 0 as Pass and 1 as Toss.
2. If both pass then we let the scores as is.
3. If one passes and not the other, then we add +1 to whoever decided to toss.
4. If both decide to toss then, we do a random coin flip where 0 = Heads and 1 = Tails. Hero can randomly choose between Heads or Tails. The Villain takes the opposite position.

First is the Monte Carlo Simulation and the difference between potential outcomes for 1000 rounds and 20 simulations, which is the graph shared.

Daily Series #2: Geeking out → Monte Carlo Simulations

Product Manager

Indiranagar / Koramangla pepulzz

Welcome to Indian Startups's Private Community

I understand that companies want to start new year with new energy. But doing it in the last working week of this year is just nuts. 

Let folks enjoy the year. Do it in Jan first/ second week. 

By doing now, you’re literally spoiling this year and the next. 

To founders out there: grow some spine, tell your investors you won’t do it now. I don’t think it’ll hurt your company much (I mean you’ve not done enough, and that’s the reason you’re in this mess, probably suck it up and wait for few more weeks) 

To the folks out there, who got impacted, my heart goes out to you all. Good luck. Market is tough, but I know you guys will make it.

[rant]- What’s up with startups? Sudden layoffs in literally last working week of this year

They  opt for dec, because its quarter ending. The books will appear cleaner from Jan and that  quarter will look better when it ends.

It has nothing to do with new energy from new year.  Its like they clean the old shit to prepare for new shit.

Layoffs at CoinDCX

I got the offer from the CoinDCX a few months ago they heavily lowballed me and culture didn't look good as well. So I decided not to join them. Saved by God Grace.

Executive Search

Write a corporate horror story in three words.

Three words? Here you go with three letters

P I P

Copywriter

Welcome to Office Gossip's Private Community

Reminds me of the article I read : 

Most young people today see social media influencing as a viable career, and they'd be willing to quit their current jobs for the chance to chase it.

Some 57% of Gen Zers said they would like to become an influencer if given the chance, according to a new report from Morning Consult, a decision intelligence company. That's a notch higher than the 41% of adults overall who'd opt for the emerging career path. 

The explosion of TikTok makes it all seem more possible, says Ellyn Briggs, brands analyst at Morning Consult: "No-frills, direct-to-cam and low-editing content does well on TikTok, so it's broadened the amount of people who feel influencing is accessible to them."

Put another way, more than half of Gen Zers "believe people can easily make a career in influencing," she adds.

Welcome to the brave new world

Software Developer

Drop the worst corporate typos you have seen at work

Product Owner

Security Engineer

Why are Indian second time Founders like Kunal Shah are not ambitious enough? They are building credit card apps while so many real problems are yet to be solved in a country like India.

US serial founders like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos are building space rockets, fighting cancer through their second startups while Indian serial founders like Kunal Shah are building credit card apps/toys.

Hey Folks, 

Happy Friday! 
Hope the week was awesome for most of you and bearable for others. 

Grapevine had about over 600 posts in the last week. Thought of sharing some of the best ones to make for a nice weekend reading.

Here’s a recap of the best moments on Grapevine: 

1) Linkedin Gyaanis should be Banned by @AvgRasmalaiEnjoyer : Some of the funniest stuff we read this week, some harsh truth bombs were dropped all over 💣
https://share.gvine.app/9NpDNLwGMsQXbwhy9


2) Is rags to riches real ? Anyone on Grapevine changed his financial status drastically ? by @RashOrient64 : The most heart warming comment section ever, some of the most inspiring stories of growth and people who have made it in their own way 📈
https://share.gvine.app/EpFH97nngeJMtL1f6 


3) Comment “Overpaid” and get some gyaan by @salt : @salt does it again with the meme of the week 🥴
https://share.gvine.app/i16Rgyqt2htruBUU6

4) Recruiters are Wylin by @BlandMetal88 : Nothing much to see here folks, the best of Linkedin Cringe continues to be pretty cringy 😬
https://share.gvine.app/MkNJUEDf9Yb5yQc18


5) Where are you working from? by @ElomDusk himself : Top Poll of the Week, almost 76% of the users are either purely working from home or hybrid - I think this might be why we see continued activity on Grapevine 🤣
https://share.gvine.app/UFFRTPKF3M9APbuD9


There’s more, but I’m calling it a week. Feel free to share your best moments in the comments below or add if I ended up missing something major 🙈
Have a great weekend everyone! :)

My Favorite Posts this Week

@Micheal_Scott Petition to build a Readers Digest feature where the best posts of the week are curated by the Grapevine team. 
  
 Hit “❤️” button, if you think it’s a good idea.

Founder

Hi I’m an above average looking and average height guy. I’ve been looking out for a serious relationship for years now and it really sucks. I mean career wise, I’m doing great. I’ve a stable career with a good car and my own house. Something that women consider for serious relationships turning into a marriage. 

I’m also very religious, super good at heart, loyal, caring basically too good to be true. I’m so loyal that I stop looking at other women even at talking stage. Send flowers randomly etc etc. 

Now the problem is, apparently if you don’t play mind and manipulation games, or basically be toxic, you won’t get a good partner. 

Every woman out there says she’s looking for 90s love and nice guys who care for her etc etc. Then why are people like me single? Not only me i know many men who are good at heart being played by such women. Why are you lying girls?

Why dating sucks these days? (also a Rant)

Growth Manager

Team is less than 10 people still, slowly growing. Net profit could be higher, that's top priority to work on now. Total cash invested by founders was 15L over 3-4 years.

Yearly revenue :

2019 - less than 30k 
20 - 1.5L (after pivot)
22 - 50L

Getting to the first lakh and then to 10 lakhs was probably the most challenging part.

We thought of shutting down multiple times, struggled through multiple fights between founders. Glad we didn't stop working and pulled through.

This is my 4th or 5th attempt at starting up. Except for 1, other attempts didn't even get to incorporation stage.

Would love to hear from other bootstrappers and their experience.

Personal milestone: 1Cr in rev as a bootstrapper

We’re at about $400K bootstrapped with a team of 2 (me included), started in 2019. Revenue almost doubled in last 18 months. 
  
 My personal observation is that if you’re going to bootstrap, you need to go after high margin, niche markets (unless you’re doing services) because you don’t have a lot of money for marketing. 
  
 Our main growth channel is affiliates and SEO. Growth will be slow so we just have to keep at it. Also, beware of VC-funded competitors.

Generalist

What are some weird terms startups use that could be spoken normally?  They need to stop using these freaking words. Let's put them all in this thread. Here are a few
1. Cohort
2. Kickoff/ Kickstarter
3. Deepdive
4. Supercharge
5. Breakouts
6. Teardowns
7. Kickass
8. Gamification
9. True North

Jargon reinvented by starups

Looks like AG1 hype train has crashed

Give smooth tricks to look busy at work pls

If you are a developer, then delete a db in production. Will keep you busy till PIP.

https://twitter.com/happypunchpromo/status/1671963514108256259?s=46&t=-MLhfYHODUw4nj6fZ-hK3g

[Updates] Elon Musk vs Mark Zuckerberg MMA match 👀

Welcome to Data Scientists's Private Community

I will continue with this series for people who like this kind of content, drop "+1" in the chat and I will tag you the next time I post content.

I assume you guys know some basics of Texas Hold'em Poker. Flop refers to "the dealing of the first three face-up cards to the board"

Now, let's look at the table and their positions:
1. Blinds: First to act every street after pre-flop.
2. Early positions: Under the Gun(UTG)
3. Middle positions
4. Late positions: Button and Cut Off

The order for a 10 person game would be: Small Blind(SB) → Big Blind(BB) → Under the Gun(UTG) → UTG+1 → UTG+2 → MP1 → MP2 → MP3 → Cutting off the Button (CO) → Button (BTN) and then order repeats ...

Some insights:
1. Blinds see the flop at a discount because they are compelled to play but are at a disadvantage because they are first to act.
2. This means that more money is made in late positions because they have more information to act on.
3. However in short stack situations, where effective stack size is small then early positions are better because you have the opportunity to go all in before someone else can as you can maintain Fold equity(Equity from Aggression).

So, Expected Value or E(V) is how do you determine whether you should call or fold basis the size of the pot and your contribution to it basis the number of outs(potential winning hands) you have.

E(V) = Win % * Win Amt - Lose % * Lose Amt

For example:
Villain(V) [UTG+1] = $500
Hero(H) (MP1) = $500

SB/BB + Ante = 20/40 + 10
Here, Ante is the bet everyone has to make every hand. This is to make the pot worth playing for everyone.

Pre-Flop: $140
H = A 10 (suited Hearts)
V = ? (Unknown)

1 Fold
V raises $120
H calls $120, 5 Folds

Flop: $380
The flop is 8 Heart, 3 Heart, K Club
V = $370 (All In)
H = ? (Do you call or fold?)

Solution:
A call is positive E(V)  if:
 Win % > Call Amt/ Pot after Call 

You have a strong hand if you can get a flush here. 
which means you need one of the next two cards
Heart Heart Club | Heart* | Heart*

Which means:
Win % = 1 - (Odds of 2 cards not being Hearts)
= 1 - (40/49 * 39/48)
= ~ 36%

So,
370/1120 = ~33% is  Call Amt/Pot after Call

Since, 36% > 33% Hero should call.

E(V) = 36% * (380+x) - x * 66%
E(V) cut off at 0,

x = $404

You stand to make $ if you decide to call that bet. You can raise any amount till $404 for a positive E(V) after which you should mathematically fold.

An easier way to calculate this is to use 2% if you can only see one card after flop and 4% if you can see both cards.

That way, Win % here would be = 4% *  9 = 36%
9 outs because, 9 cards that are Hearts are left in the deck.

Daily Series #1: Geeking out → Poker Math

Many stereotypes exist about Grapeviners. Such as ‘They’re always complaining about their low 85 LPA CTC’, ‘They all live in HSR layout’, etc etc 

But tbh the thing I love most is how funny y’all are 

Each morning I wake up to too many comments that have me laughing quite hard.

Thanks for being funny

Today on my way to office saw someone threw a lays wrapper out on the street. That person was in an audi a6, surely this car is costly, hence that person is well off, still he doesnt have the common sense to dispose off the garbage responsibly.

Are indians inherently dirty ?

Has anyone applied to YC? If yes what was your experience, what all have you done before applying to YC? What was your market segment? Any other stories and gyaan related to applying and working with YC please!

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